保加利亚与塞尔维亚：热带夜
2014 年热带夜：保加利亚为 9.4 夜，塞尔维亚为 7.7 夜（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年保加利亚的数值较高，高出 1.7 夜，是塞尔维亚的 1.22 倍。
保加利亚塞尔维亚
在地图上查看其变化每年夜数 · CMIP6
最新数据
每年夜数 · CMIP6
| 国家 | 最新 | 10 年前 | 预测值 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 保加利亚 | 9.4 2014 | 6.8 | 46.1 2100 |
| 塞尔维亚 | 7.7 2014 | 5.2 | 39.4 2100 |
数据解读
- 自 1950 年以来，在两国都有数据的每一年，保加利亚的数值都更高。
- 根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年保加利亚为 46.1 夜，塞尔维亚为 39.4 夜。
逐年数据
每年夜数 · CMIP6
| 年份 | 保加利亚 | 塞尔维亚 |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 9.4 | 7.7 |
| 2013 | 8.7 | 5.4 |
| 2012 | 8.4 | 6.9 |
| 2011 | 9.6 | 8.3 |
| 2010 | 8.6 | 8 |
| 2009 | 7.6 | 7 |
| 2008 | 7.5 | 6.1 |
| 2007 | 6.4 | 4.3 |
| 2006 | 8.4 | 6.3 |
| 2005 | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| 2004 | 6.8 | 5.2 |
| 2003 | 6.5 | 5.2 |
| 2002 | 5.7 | 3.5 |
| 2001 | 6.1 | 3.7 |
| 2000 | 7 | 5.4 |
| 1999 | 5.7 | 3.9 |
| 1998 | 3.9 | 3.1 |
| 1997 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| 1996 | 4 | 3.8 |
| 1995 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| 1994 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| 1993 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 1992 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 1991 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| 1990 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| 1989 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 1988 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 1987 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 1986 | 3.4 | 2 |
| 1985 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 1984 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 1983 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| 1982 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1981 | 2 | 1.1 |
| 1980 | 2 | 1.9 |
| 1979 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 1978 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 1977 | 2 | 1 |
| 1976 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1975 | 2.6 | 2 |
| 1974 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 1973 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1972 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1971 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1970 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1969 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| 1968 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 1967 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 1966 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1965 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 1964 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 1963 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 1962 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 1961 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1960 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 1959 | 3 | 2.5 |
| 1958 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 1957 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 1956 | 2.6 | 2 |
| 1955 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| 1954 | 2.3 | 1 |
| 1953 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| 1952 | 3 | 2.5 |
| 1951 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 1950 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100
| 年份 | 保加利亚 | 塞尔维亚 |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 12.34.7–21.7 | 8.23.7–17.7 |
| 2016 | 11.72.9–21.6 | 8.42–17.1 |
| 2017 | 11.23.5–23.1 | 8.71.7–18.3 |
| 2018 | 11.63.6–23.7 | 7.72–19.2 |
| 2019 | 12.15.3–19.7 | 93.2–18.9 |
| 2020 | 15.45.1–25.5 | 12.12.4–21.3 |
| 2021 | 12.35.7–20.2 | 8.94.2–18.1 |
| 2022 | 12.95.8–26.9 | 122.8–23.4 |
| 2023 | 14.25.3–26.2 | 10.42.6–21.4 |
| 2024 | 15.95.4–26.8 | 12.72.8–25.2 |
| 2025 | 16.45.1–27.5 | 12.71.8–22.2 |
| 2026 | 17.85.5–26.7 | 14.73.8–23 |
| 2027 | 14.44.4–27.9 | 11.42.4–22.1 |
| 2028 | 14.97.6–26.9 | 124.4–24.8 |
| 2029 | 19.49.8–31.7 | 154–30.5 |
| 2030 | 16.49.6–26.8 | 12.54.4–22.2 |
| 2031 | 18.69.3–29.5 | 12.65.4–23.5 |
| 2032 | 21.79.3–33.7 | 14.95.2–37 |
| 2033 | 20.210.3–32.2 | 14.13.9–23.5 |
| 2034 | 20.210–30.3 | 15.22.6–29.6 |
| 2035 | 22.68.6–35.9 | 17.74.2–30 |
| 2036 | 21.111.3–36.3 | 17.96.2–31 |
| 2037 | 22.310.5–34.2 | 17.55.9–27.4 |
| 2038 | 21.211.2–41.5 | 16.56.2–36.5 |
| 2039 | 23.712.3–35.9 | 17.96–27.4 |
| 2040 | 23.68.9–36.6 | 18.46.7–31.2 |
| 2041 | 21.712.3–37.7 | 16.95.7–31.9 |
| 2042 | 24.510.5–39.5 | 16.86.8–33 |
| 2043 | 23.814–38.5 | 19.59.7–31.5 |
| 2044 | 24.99.8–41.3 | 18.57.8–33.6 |
| 2045 | 24.810.5–40.2 | 215.1–32.4 |
| 2046 | 24.39.1–44.3 | 20.16.1–40.6 |
| 2047 | 26.612.3–41.7 | 22.49.5–38.1 |
| 2048 | 31.69.8–44.3 | 21.68–41.5 |
| 2049 | 27.810.1–42.5 | 21.76.5–35.2 |
| 2050 | 28.512.4–42.4 | 238.6–36.1 |
| 2051 | 27.914.7–42.4 | 20.77.5–37.6 |
| 2052 | 26.715.1–40.4 | 228–36.3 |
| 2053 | 29.920.3–41.2 | 21.410.4–34.5 |
| 2054 | 31.116.8–43.7 | 2412.4–37 |
| 2055 | 30.912.4–48 | 24.29.7–43.4 |
| 2056 | 27.813.6–43.4 | 20.611–37.8 |
| 2057 | 30.714.7–45.6 | 22.18.2–34.2 |
| 2058 | 32.913.6–54 | 28.37.7–48.4 |
| 2059 | 30.111.8–47.1 | 23.78.4–42.9 |
| 2060 | 30.418.4–46.8 | 22.713.8–37.7 |
| 2061 | 3415.3–49.4 | 27.212.4–41.6 |
| 2062 | 33.415.5–49.6 | 23.910.1–41.6 |
| 2063 | 33.316.1–52.2 | 2810.9–46.9 |
| 2064 | 3219.4–46.3 | 26.711.7–40.5 |
| 2065 | 36.119.2–49.3 | 287.8–41.4 |
| 2066 | 33.817.4–50.1 | 24.612.9–42.6 |
| 2067 | 36.720.1–53.7 | 31.313.6–51.6 |
| 2068 | 38.918.4–50.6 | 30.519–42.4 |
| 2069 | 34.718.6–54.6 | 28.614.3–44.8 |
| 2070 | 35.119.1–55.2 | 27.811.6–51 |
| 2071 | 36.315.4–53.7 | 28.87.5–50.7 |
| 2072 | 39.621.5–61 | 32.615.5–49.8 |
| 2073 | 36.817–51.6 | 29.213.6–43.8 |
| 2074 | 36.221.8–55 | 26.914.3–46.3 |
| 2075 | 35.517.1–56.1 | 2915–46.1 |
| 2076 | 39.917.5–56.6 | 32.510.9–52.1 |
| 2077 | 38.921–55.7 | 30.615.7–48 |
| 2078 | 40.622.3–58.8 | 30.316.5–54.6 |
| 2079 | 43.716.2–63 | 35.514.1–60.7 |
| 2080 | 41.922.6–58 | 32.317.9–52.6 |
| 2081 | 3721.7–54 | 29.313.4–50.2 |
| 2082 | 41.821.3–62.8 | 34.518.9–58.4 |
| 2083 | 41.120.6–60.6 | 28.69.8–49.1 |
| 2084 | 44.928–58.4 | 34.518.3–49.7 |
| 2085 | 42.324.6–55.6 | 35.216.9–50.2 |
| 2086 | 45.722.3–60.9 | 35.316.1–53.7 |
| 2087 | 45.221.9–66.5 | 34.913.7–58.5 |
| 2088 | 45.226.7–64.5 | 36.117.6–59 |
| 2089 | 42.522.3–63.6 | 32.313.2–57.4 |
| 2090 | 46.928.7–62.3 | 38.717.6–59 |
| 2091 | 47.425.9–63.8 | 39.719.9–59.5 |
| 2092 | 43.921.1–63.8 | 3611.2–56.9 |
| 2093 | 43.520.2–67.4 | 33.515.1–59.4 |
| 2094 | 45.826.7–68.8 | 35.715.6–58.8 |
| 2095 | 47.521.4–61.3 | 38.616.4–56.3 |
| 2096 | 44.419.9–69.3 | 29.414.6–62 |
| 2097 | 47.621.2–64.6 | 3813.9–56.7 |
| 2098 | 45.822.5–65.4 | 39.816.7–57.8 |
| 2099 | 45.221.5–62.5 | 37.214.9–58.5 |
| 2100 | 46.123–66.7 | 39.418.3–56.7 |
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须知
- 一年中气温始终高于 20 °C 的夜晚数，取全国平均。
- 来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
- 虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
- 气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。
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