匈牙利与塞尔维亚：热带夜

2014 年热带夜：匈牙利为 9.2 夜，塞尔维亚为 7.7 夜（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年匈牙利的数值较高，高出 1.5 夜，是塞尔维亚的 1.19 倍。

每年夜数 · CMIP6

匈牙利塞尔维亚CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径）模型第 10–90 百分位

数据解读

自 2012 年超过塞尔维亚以来，匈牙利的数值一直更高。
根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年匈牙利为 43.3 夜，塞尔维亚为 39.4 夜。

逐年数据

每年夜数 · CMIP6

年份	匈牙利	塞尔维亚
2014	9.2	7.7
2013	5.9	5.4
2012	6.9	6.9
2011	7.5	8.3
2010	8.2	8
2009	6.3	7
2008	6.3	6.1
2007	4.6	4.3
2006	6.3	6.3
2005	6.1	4.8
2004	5.3	5.2
2003	5.3	5.2
2002	4.2	3.5
2001	3.6	3.7
2000	5.5	5.4
1999	4.5	3.9
1998	2.8	3.1
1997	2.1	2.8
1996	4.2	3.8
1995	3.3	3.1
1994	1.9	2.5
1993	1.3	1.9
1992	0.9	1.2
1991	2.6	2.8
1990	2.2	2.4
1989	2	2.2
1988	1.3	1.4
1987	1.9	1.6
1986	1.5	2
1985	1.5	1.4
1984	1.4	1.4
1983	1.3	1.6
1982	0.6	0.9
1981	0.8	1.1
1980	1.6	1.9
1979	1	1.1
1978	1.8	1.7
1977	0.6	1
1976	0.9	1.1
1975	1.6	2
1974	1.3	1.2
1973	0.5	0.7
1972	0.8	0.9
1971	1.2	1.1
1970	0.9	1.4
1969	1.4	1.6
1968	0.9	1.2
1967	1.2	1.1
1966	0.8	1.1
1965	0.7	0.9
1964	1	1.2
1963	0.6	1.2
1962	0.8	1.5
1961	1.1	0.9
1960	1.4	1.6
1959	2.9	2.5
1958	1	1.7
1957	0.9	1.3
1956	1.6	2
1955	2.4	2.5
1954	0.9	1
1953	2.8	2.9
1952	2.2	2.5
1951	1.1	1.5
1950	1.2	1.6

CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100

年份	匈牙利	塞尔维亚
2015	9.23.9–21.6	8.23.7–17.7
2016	10.12–23.2	8.42–17.1
2017	10.71.8–25.6	8.71.7–18.3
2018	9.23.9–24.6	7.72–19.2
2019	113.8–22.8	93.2–18.9
2020	15.53–28.2	12.12.4–21.3
2021	10.43.8–22	8.94.2–18.1
2022	15.12.2–27	122.8–23.4
2023	122.6–26.3	10.42.6–21.4
2024	13.52.8–25.4	12.72.8–25.2
2025	16.61.3–29.4	12.71.8–22.2
2026	16.14.8–28.1	14.73.8–23
2027	14.52.9–28.8	11.42.4–22.1
2028	14.45.6–31.6	124.4–24.8
2029	14.74.8–38.3	154–30.5
2030	14.54.1–27.6	12.54.4–22.2
2031	14.25.2–29.6	12.65.4–23.5
2032	16.75–42.3	14.95.2–37
2033	15.72.6–30.5	14.13.9–23.5
2034	18.31.7–33.1	15.22.6–29.6
2035	205–38.1	17.74.2–30
2036	20.66.9–35.9	17.96.2–31
2037	22.47.5–34.6	17.55.9–27.4
2038	17.26.2–43.1	16.56.2–36.5
2039	22.55.2–33.6	17.96–27.4
2040	20.27.9–36.6	18.46.7–31.2
2041	20.76.9–39.4	16.95.7–31.9
2042	227.8–35.9	16.86.8–33
2043	23.79.1–39.1	19.59.7–31.5
2044	22.18.4–43.4	18.57.8–33.6
2045	234.7–36.5	215.1–32.4
2046	23.65.6–51.4	20.16.1–40.6
2047	26.512.4–50.8	22.49.5–38.1
2048	26.78–48.7	21.68–41.5
2049	26.34.5–42.9	21.76.5–35.2
2050	26.210.7–43.4	238.6–36.1
2051	21.98.8–47.7	20.77.5–37.6
2052	27.48.5–44.8	228–36.3
2053	22.310.2–41.1	21.410.4–34.5
2054	26.612.4–42.6	2412.4–37
2055	24.38.1–47.8	24.29.7–43.4
2056	24.311.6–47.2	20.611–37.8
2057	25.810.3–43.5	22.18.2–34.2
2058	34.59.2–59	28.37.7–48.4
2059	26.49.2–53	23.78.4–42.9
2060	27.413.8–44.2	22.713.8–37.7
2061	3214.8–49.3	27.212.4–41.6
2062	28.110.6–51.7	23.910.1–41.6
2063	31.811.8–53.7	2810.9–46.9
2064	30.115.5–50	26.711.7–40.5
2065	34.113.3–53.2	287.8–41.4
2066	29.114.4–53.3	24.612.9–42.6
2067	34.514.2–61	31.313.6–51.6
2068	33.319.5–47.4	30.519–42.4
2069	34.216.1–52.9	28.614.3–44.8
2070	3012.6–53	27.811.6–51
2071	36.36.3–59.6	28.87.5–50.7
2072	39.118.2–56.8	32.615.5–49.8
2073	34.116.1–51.2	29.213.6–43.8
2074	33.513.1–57.1	26.914.3–46.3
2075	33.716.6–59.2	2915–46.1
2076	37.312.1–64.8	32.510.9–52.1
2077	34.616.1–53.8	30.615.7–48
2078	3516.2–64.3	30.316.5–54.6
2079	39.313–67.8	35.514.1–60.7
2080	39.717–60.2	32.317.9–52.6
2081	34.315.9–58.5	29.313.4–50.2
2082	39.723–68.6	34.518.9–58.4
2083	34.411.2–61	28.69.8–49.1
2084	39.917.8–55.1	34.518.3–49.7
2085	41.517.4–60.9	35.216.9–50.2
2086	41.519.3–66	35.316.1–53.7
2087	41.117.7–68.8	34.913.7–58.5
2088	42.320.8–65.2	36.117.6–59
2089	35.714.1–66.5	32.313.2–57.4
2090	40.218–69.7	38.717.6–59
2091	46.918–69.6	39.719.9–59.5
2092	42.113.2–63	3611.2–56.9
2093	36.416.8–60.5	33.515.1–59.4
2094	42.220.5–66.2	35.715.6–58.8
2095	43.715.5–66.9	38.616.4–56.3
2096	3713.6–70.5	29.414.6–62
2097	42.413.4–64	3813.9–56.7
2098	41.816.4–64.6	39.816.7–57.8
2099	42.615.9–63	37.214.9–58.5
2100	43.321.7–62.7	39.418.3–56.7

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须知

一年中气温始终高于 20 °C 的夜晚数，取全国平均。
来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。

各图层如何运作、数据从何而来，以及它们无法告诉你什么：历年各国数据

匈牙利与塞尔维亚对比

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冲突

冲突死亡人数匈牙利：2022 年为 0 人死亡塞尔维亚：2022 年为 0 人死亡