肯尼亚与南苏丹：35 °C 以上天数

2014 年35 °C 以上天数：肯尼亚为 48.1 天，南苏丹为 115.2 天（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年南苏丹的数值较高，高出 67.1 天，是肯尼亚的 2.39 倍。

每年天数 · CMIP6

肯尼亚南苏丹CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径）模型第 10–90 百分位

数据解读

自 1950 年以来，在两国都有数据的每一年，南苏丹的数值都更高。
根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年肯尼亚为 103.7 天，南苏丹为 172 天。

逐年数据

每年天数 · CMIP6

年份	肯尼亚	南苏丹
2014	48.1	115.2
2013	46.4	111.2
2012	45.5	108.8
2011	46.4	112.9
2010	45.5	112.8
2009	40.9	104.3
2008	40.8	104.2
2007	39.2	100.7
2006	42	105.3
2005	42.9	102.8
2004	41.8	103.4
2003	41	102.5
2002	42.7	104.6
2001	43.4	108.9
2000	39.6	99.1
1999	40.9	97.8
1998	39.7	97.6
1997	38.8	99.2
1996	35.3	94
1995	34.3	94
1994	32.9	89.9
1993	28.5	84.6
1992	28.2	87.9
1991	35.1	95.2
1990	34.1	94
1989	34.5	93.6
1988	33.9	98
1987	35.9	97.7
1986	35.5	97.9
1985	31.2	89.8
1984	31	90.8
1983	30.2	90.8
1982	33.9	89.3
1981	34.6	96.2
1980	36.4	97.5
1979	34.4	95.4
1978	31.8	89.1
1977	30.5	92.9
1976	28.6	86.7
1975	29.7	91.5
1974	30.4	90
1973	29.1	90.1
1972	28.4	89.8
1971	28.1	84.8
1970	27	87.8
1969	29	90.8
1968	25.7	85.5
1967	26.9	84.3
1966	25.8	87
1965	24.4	82.2
1964	20.8	79.2
1963	25.7	84.4
1962	28.8	93.5
1961	30.9	90.4
1960	29.5	92
1959	30.4	90.1
1958	28	88
1957	30.7	90.7
1956	28.9	85.5
1955	30.2	87.3
1954	30	91
1953	31	95.5
1952	29.8	88.7
1951	30.1	93.2
1950	30.8	86.7

CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100

年份	肯尼亚	南苏丹
2015	50.131.1–66.1	112.487.1–135.9
2016	49.230.5–67.3	103.878.8–129.9
2017	50.228.4–68.7	114.384.4–134.8
2018	5033.4–67.3	109.674.1–140.7
2019	49.431.2–67.4	107.285.2–133.3
2020	53.533.4–75.7	114.783–140.8
2021	52.434.3–69.5	112.182.3–137.9
2022	51.825–70.5	108.880.6–137.3
2023	55.535.3–80	113.188.8–147.8
2024	60.738.5–78.7	121.591–149.4
2025	55.236.8–74.4	115.889.9–141.1
2026	55.435.2–86.2	112.283.6–145.9
2027	5634.2–77.5	115.482.9–143.9
2028	56.731.5–80.6	118.387.9–145.1
2029	59.535.1–79.7	120.789.9–140.1
2030	57.940.5–79.9	117.292.5–147.7
2031	64.244.3–83.9	123.397.3–147.8
2032	58.839.6–81.3	118.791.5–148.1
2033	63.639.2–87.1	123.791.9–159.9
2034	62.339.2–84.6	120.889.9–159.1
2035	61.636.8–84.1	122.892.3–153.1
2036	59.840.3–84.7	118.790.7–147.5
2037	63.740.4–91.7	127.792.4–161
2038	63.235.1–89.5	129.5101.9–159.2
2039	65.540.6–88.4	128.394.6–153.1
2040	64.144.3–84.7	125.894.8–150.7
2041	69.847.4–98.8	133.899.2–157.8
2042	71.147–95.3	129.3101.8–150.8
2043	66.640.7–91.1	124.788.4–161.9
2044	69.243–91.5	12893.3–153.7
2045	7049.2–100.3	134.398–166.7
2046	76.643.2–107.2	142.1102.3–172.2
2047	74.249.2–103.8	139.3111.2–169.4
2048	72.847.4–102.8	133.1102.8–175.4
2049	78.548.6–107.8	144106.7–173.4
2050	7250–107.2	131.8102.7–175.9
2051	79.352.5–111	136.9103.8–181
2052	79.550.7–104.4	140.6107.1–170.7
2053	72.944.3–104.5	136.798.4–174.4
2054	73.142.1–99.6	143.499–172.9
2055	80.450.6–105.6	143.4108.5–177.2
2056	76.247–111.2	140.5106.1–187.1
2057	81.352.9–109.1	152.3116.4–191.2
2058	78.950–112.4	151.7101.9–183.5
2059	83.351.3–115.7	145.9103.5–182.1
2060	85.749.3–116.5	148.7106.5–190.2
2061	85.354.7–115.1	149.5111.4–191.8
2062	85.355.1–116.5	146.1106.4–194.6
2063	84.254.2–110.1	147.1109.1–180.2
2064	87.448.2–113.7	149.2109.2–185.1
2065	86.855.1–123.7	153.7122.4–192.3
2066	83.857–115	150.4119.4–190.7
2067	8955.6–119.5	149.8119–196.2
2068	87.751.4–117.1	153.9118.8–193.6
2069	8653.8–118.3	148.8111.4–191.2
2070	86.150.8–121	154.5117–195.8
2071	91.757.9–123.6	153.5117.6–200.4
2072	91.461.3–123.1	161.7122–189.2
2073	91.458.5–127.3	159.7124.4–198.7
2074	87.855.2–124.3	151.9106.9–200.6
2075	89.853.7–127.4	155.5106.6–190
2076	97.664.7–134.6	159.9116.3–216.8
2077	97.755.7–131.4	163.6123.7–216.5
2078	90.260.9–124.7	161.4123.3–199.6
2079	9463.2–125.8	158.8127.9–190.6
2080	96.157.8–132.4	161.6116.1–198.3
2081	99.766.8–136.7	163.3126.3–208.9
2082	99.458.5–131.7	159.2127.6–200.5
2083	100.263.9–137.5	168129–211.4
2084	9967.9–133.8	162.7120.4–199.8
2085	99.259.2–137.4	166.1126.3–209.4
2086	104.457.4–142.5	162.5122.2–208.7
2087	99.762.4–134.4	163.7110.7–202.2
2088	98.761–135.2	164.8122.3–214.2
2089	97.966–126.9	162.4126–199.8
2090	101.468.5–136	167120.8–211.8
2091	104.465.5–141.4	165.6119.3–210.6
2092	99.759.8–137.8	173.9126.9–217.6
2093	105.971.9–140.7	168.8131.2–208.4
2094	107.369.1–137.3	171.1131.9–222.8
2095	106.367.5–142.4	171.7128.2–224.7
2096	105.461.5–142.2	166.3122.8–214.1
2097	105.161.4–139.2	165.8123.7–214.6
2098	104.861.9–140.8	165.5125–217.9
2099	103.362.5–145.4	171126.6–227.6
2100	103.757.3–139.4	172124.2–217.9

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须知

一年中最高气温超过 35 °C 的天数，取全国平均。
来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。

各图层如何运作、数据从何而来，以及它们无法告诉你什么：历年各国数据

肯尼亚与南苏丹对比

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冲突

冲突死亡人数肯尼亚：2022 年为 81 人死亡南苏丹：2022 年为 679 人死亡