Belarus vs Ukraine

Belarus vs Ukraine: Temperature

Temperature in 2025: 8.6 °C in Belarus and 10.6 °C in Ukraine, by ERA5 observations. In 2025 the value was higher in Ukraine, by 2 °C, or 1.23 times that in Belarus.

Watch it change on the map

°C · ERA5

Belarus vs Ukraine: TemperatureTemperature in 2025: 8.6 °C in Belarus and 10.6 °C in Ukraine, by ERA5 observations. In 2025 the value was higher in Ukraine, by 2 °C, or 1.23 times that in Belarus.
BelarusUkraineCMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

  • Ukraine has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
  • In 2025, Belarus ranked 208 and Ukraine ranked 196 of 233 countries, counting from the highest.
  • The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Belarus at 9.9 °C and Ukraine at 12 °C in 2100.

Every year

°C · ERA5

YearBelarusBelarus: CMIP6 historical run, model medianUkraineUkraine: CMIP6 historical run, model median
20258.67.810.610
20249.57.611.69.7
20238.87.510.99.7
20227.98.31010.2
20217.489.310.1
20209.1810.810
20198.97.310.79.5
201887.59.99.6
20177.77.2109.5
20167.87.49.79.4
20158.77.610.39.7
20147.87.59.69.3
20137.67.59.89.4
20126.97.29.59.3
20117.66.999.1
20107.17.59.79.5
20097.27.29.69.4
20088.17.39.79.3
200787.110.39.2
200677.28.79.2
20056.97.39.19.2
20046.86.78.98.9
20036.77.18.39.2
20027.76.99.58.9
20017.26.998.9
20007.979.49
19997.86.79.78.8
19986.56.98.68.7
19976.46.87.78.8
19965.777.79
19957.16.48.88.4
19946.86.38.98.5
199366.17.58.3
19927.15.68.47.7
19916.86.18.38.1
19907.76.69.48.6
19898.26.49.78.3
19886.46.27.88.1
19874.36.26.28
198666.28.18.3
19854.76.26.78.3
19846.35.987.8
19837.55.89.17.8
19826.65.78.37.7
19816.65.78.87.7
19804.966.97.9
19795.968.38
19785.25.97.38
197765.97.97.9
19764.85.86.68
19757.95.89.67.6
19746.76.38.48
19736.15.87.88.1
19726.65.68.47.7
19716.45.88.38
19705.75.38.27.6
19694.55.66.97.9
19685.65.98.27.8
19676.75.78.47.8
19666.75.89.57.8
196555.97.27.8
19645.867.58
19635.35.97.47.9
19625.85.68.47.9
19616.968.68.1
19606.468.68.2
19596.65.77.78.1
19585.968.18
19576.65.58.67.6
19564.266.37.9
19555.75.98.18
19545.55.77.38
19535.86.17.68.3
19525.46.187.9
19516.35.68.57.8
19506.26.28.18.1
  • 12.3Projected
CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2026–2100
YearBelarusBelarus: CMIP6 historical run, model medianUkraineUkraine: CMIP6 historical run, model median
2026–8.27.3–8.8–10.19.2–10.9
2027–8.16.9–9.1–10.29.1–11.2
2028–8.16.8–9.4–108.9–11
2029–8.37–9.3–10.28.9–11.2
2030–8.46.7–9.2–10.49–11.2
2031–7.96.3–9.7–108.2–11.4
2032–8.37.2–9.4–10.29.2–11.3
2033–8.17.5–9.9–10.39.4–11.4
2034–8.27.2–9.5–10.29.1–11.3
2035–8.47.1–9.8–10.49.4–11.7
2036–8.57.1–10–10.59.3–11.9
2037–8.27–9.7–10.39–11.5
2038–8.46.9–10.2–10.79.2–12
2039–8.47.6–9.7–10.69.7–11.5
2040–8.77.6–9.8–10.89.6–12
2041–8.77.3–9.6–10.79.5–11.6
2042–8.47.1–10–10.49–11.9
2043–97.1–10.1–10.99.3–11.8
2044–8.36.3–10.3–10.58.7–11.9
2045–8.56.9–10.3–10.59.2–12.2
2046–8.47–10–10.59.2–11.7
2047–9.17.1–10.4–119.2–12.2
2048–9.27.7–10.2–119.7–12
2049–8.97.5–10.1–10.99.7–12
2050–97.8–10.2–11.29.6–12.3
2051–8.77.6–10.6–11.19.7–12.4
2052–8.97.5–10.6–10.99.8–12.3
2053–9.27.5–10.4–11.29.6–12.4
2054–8.87.4–10.3–10.89.8–12.2
2055–8.67.2–10.5–10.79.5–12.4
2056–97.9–10.8–119.9–12.1
2057–8.97.9–10.5–10.99.9–12.7
2058–9.67.8–10.9–11.49.7–12.9
2059–9.18–11–11.29.8–12.7
2060–97.8–10.6–119.8–12.6
2061–9.27.6–10.3–11.29.5–12.3
2062–9.57.8–10.9–11.410–12.8
2063–9.37.5–11.1–11.49.4–12.5
2064–9.47.9–10.3–11.410–12.3
2065–9.47.6–10.9–11.49.9–12.8
2066–9.37.9–10.8–11.19.9–12.7
2067–9.38–10.8–11.410–12.7
2068–97.5–11–119.8–12.9
2069–9.58.1–11.3–11.710.3–13.1
2070–9.47.3–10.5–11.49.3–12.3
2071–9.77.6–11.1–11.39.5–12.9
2072–9.88.3–10.7–11.810.6–12.8
2073–9.17.7–11–11.19.8–12.8
2074–9.48.4–10.7–11.310.3–12.6
2075–97.8–10.8–11.210.1–12.8
2076–9.67.8–11.4–11.610.2–13.1
2077–9.58.6–10.9–11.610.5–12.9
2078–9.48.3–10.8–11.410.4–12.5
2079–9.48–11.5–11.510–13.4
2080–9.68–11–11.510.5–12.9
2081–9.58.1–11–11.610.5–13
2082–9.67.9–11.7–11.810.3–13.4
2083–9.27.9–11.6–11.510.1–13.4
2084–9.47.7–11.3–11.710.3–13.4
2085–9.47.8–11.3–11.710.3–13.1
2086–9.88.2–12–11.910.5–13.5
2087–9.98.3–11.6–11.810.5–13.2
2088–9.98–11.3–11.810.1–12.9
2089–9.87.8–11.2–11.510.1–13.2
2090–9.87.6–11.3–11.810–13.7
2091–107.8–11.7–1210.1–13.4
2092–10.38.2–11.6–12.110.4–13.6
2093–9.98.4–11.7–11.910.5–13.6
2094–9.88.5–11.9–12.19.9–13.7
2095–10.18.4–11.4–12.210.4–13.3
2096–9.97.8–11.6–129.9–13.7
2097–9.98.5–12.5–12.210.3–14.2
2098–9.87.9–11.5–11.810.3–13.4
2099–108.2–11.8–1210.1–13.3
2100–9.98.5–11.3–1210.5–13

Each country on its own

Good to know

  • The average air temperature near the ground, over the whole country and the whole year.
  • Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus, ECMWF) and CMIP6, via the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
  • The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
  • Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.
  • Ranks count the 233 countries with a value in 2025, highest first.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

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