ロシアと南アフリカの熱帯夜
2014 年の熱帯夜は、ロシアが 1.4 夜、南アフリカが 27.1 夜 です（CMIP6 気候モデルの中央値による計算）。 2014 年の値は南アフリカのほうが 25.7 夜 高く、ロシアの 20 倍でした。
ロシア南アフリカ
地図で推移を見る最新の数値
年間夜数 · CMIP6
| 国 | 最新 | 10年前 | 予測値 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ロシア | 1.4 2014 | 1 | 5.9 2100 |
| 南アフリカ | 27.1 2014 | 25.8 | 58.7 2100 |
数字からわかること
- 1950 年以降、両国ともデータのあるすべての年で南アフリカのほうが高くなっています。
- CMIP6 モデル中央値（SSP2-4.5、中道）では、2100 年にロシアが 5.9 夜、南アフリカが 58.7 夜 とされています。
年ごとの値
年間夜数 · CMIP6
| 年 | ロシア | 南アフリカ |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1.4 | 27.1 |
| 2013 | 1.2 | 28.3 |
| 2012 | 1.1 | 27.9 |
| 2011 | 1.1 | 26.1 |
| 2010 | 1.2 | 26 |
| 2009 | 1 | 25.8 |
| 2008 | 1.1 | 24.8 |
| 2007 | 1 | 24.7 |
| 2006 | 1.1 | 25.5 |
| 2005 | 1.2 | 25.3 |
| 2004 | 1 | 25.8 |
| 2003 | 1 | 25.1 |
| 2002 | 0.9 | 25 |
| 2001 | 1 | 24.5 |
| 2000 | 0.9 | 23.3 |
| 1999 | 0.8 | 23 |
| 1998 | 0.8 | 23.4 |
| 1997 | 0.9 | 22.5 |
| 1996 | 0.7 | 20.4 |
| 1995 | 0.7 | 19.3 |
| 1994 | 0.6 | 20 |
| 1993 | 0.5 | 18.1 |
| 1992 | 0.4 | 18.1 |
| 1991 | 0.6 | 22.3 |
| 1990 | 0.6 | 22.7 |
| 1989 | 0.6 | 22 |
| 1988 | 0.5 | 21.2 |
| 1987 | 0.6 | 21.9 |
| 1986 | 0.6 | 21 |
| 1985 | 0.6 | 18.9 |
| 1984 | 0.4 | 20 |
| 1983 | 0.3 | 19 |
| 1982 | 0.5 | 20.3 |
| 1981 | 0.5 | 20 |
| 1980 | 0.5 | 21.2 |
| 1979 | 0.5 | 19.9 |
| 1978 | 0.5 | 19.8 |
| 1977 | 0.5 | 19.2 |
| 1976 | 0.5 | 19.2 |
| 1975 | 0.4 | 18.8 |
| 1974 | 0.5 | 19.7 |
| 1973 | 0.5 | 19.6 |
| 1972 | 0.4 | 19 |
| 1971 | 0.5 | 19.1 |
| 1970 | 0.4 | 18.6 |
| 1969 | 0.4 | 18.7 |
| 1968 | 0.6 | 17.8 |
| 1967 | 0.5 | 17.5 |
| 1966 | 0.4 | 17.8 |
| 1965 | 0.5 | 17.2 |
| 1964 | 0.4 | 14.9 |
| 1963 | 0.5 | 16.5 |
| 1962 | 0.4 | 19.6 |
| 1961 | 0.5 | 19.7 |
| 1960 | 0.5 | 19.8 |
| 1959 | 0.5 | 18.5 |
| 1958 | 0.5 | 19.3 |
| 1957 | 0.5 | 19.4 |
| 1956 | 0.5 | 18 |
| 1955 | 0.5 | 19.5 |
| 1954 | 0.5 | 18.4 |
| 1953 | 0.6 | 18.4 |
| 1952 | 0.5 | 19.3 |
| 1951 | 0.5 | 18.9 |
| 1950 | 0.5 | 18.1 |
CMIP6 モデル中央値（SSP2-4.5、中道） · 2015–2100
| 年 | ロシア | 南アフリカ |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1.60.6–3.9 | 28.620–39.5 |
| 2016 | 1.30.6–3.5 | 26.817.8–37.9 |
| 2017 | 1.40.5–3.6 | 28.919.6–37.8 |
| 2018 | 1.70.6–4.1 | 29.620.6–40.6 |
| 2019 | 1.50.7–3.9 | 29.820.8–41.5 |
| 2020 | 1.50.7–3.6 | 29.518.9–39.1 |
| 2021 | 1.40.6–3.6 | 31.121.4–42.9 |
| 2022 | 1.80.6–4.4 | 3223.7–43.1 |
| 2023 | 1.80.6–4.5 | 31.922.9–41.8 |
| 2024 | 1.70.7–4.1 | 3324–45.6 |
| 2025 | 20.7–5.2 | 31.920.7–44.5 |
| 2026 | 1.70.7–4.4 | 34.521.9–46.9 |
| 2027 | 1.90.8–4.7 | 34.423–47.7 |
| 2028 | 1.70.8–4.4 | 33.522.9–46 |
| 2029 | 20.9–5.3 | 36.226.5–48.3 |
| 2030 | 1.80.6–4.8 | 36.124.9–49 |
| 2031 | 2.11–5.1 | 36.324.5–50.3 |
| 2032 | 2.20.9–5.8 | 36.424.5–49.2 |
| 2033 | 2.11.1–5.4 | 36.924.5–48.3 |
| 2034 | 1.90.8–4.9 | 37.626.4–51.8 |
| 2035 | 2.21–5.8 | 37.625.2–49.5 |
| 2036 | 2.41.1–5.9 | 3826.5–50.5 |
| 2037 | 2.31–6.1 | 39.928.2–53.4 |
| 2038 | 2.51.1–5.8 | 41.528.4–54.2 |
| 2039 | 2.71.2–6.8 | 39.227–52.9 |
| 2040 | 2.50.9–5.8 | 38.125.6–55.6 |
| 2041 | 2.61.1–6.6 | 40.227.4–54.3 |
| 2042 | 2.61–6.8 | 4229–56.4 |
| 2043 | 2.81.4–7 | 42.128.2–58.4 |
| 2044 | 2.81–7.5 | 41.929.5–57.8 |
| 2045 | 2.61.1–7.1 | 42.728.2–59 |
| 2046 | 2.81.1–7.5 | 44.130–59.5 |
| 2047 | 2.91.1–8.3 | 44.630.7–61.2 |
| 2048 | 3.41.1–7.9 | 4531.9–61.5 |
| 2049 | 3.21.4–8 | 45.632.3–61.4 |
| 2050 | 3.51.3–8.2 | 46.931–63.6 |
| 2051 | 3.41.3–8.9 | 47.532–65 |
| 2052 | 31.2–8.1 | 48.332.7–64.3 |
| 2053 | 3.11.3–7.5 | 45.733.7–62.1 |
| 2054 | 3.21.1–7.7 | 4833.3–64.3 |
| 2055 | 3.31.2–9 | 46.833–68.4 |
| 2056 | 3.51.3–8.8 | 47.933.2–64.8 |
| 2057 | 3.71.5–9.1 | 50.232.6–68.9 |
| 2058 | 3.61.5–10.2 | 47.934–66.4 |
| 2059 | 3.81.5–9.3 | 51.333.1–66.9 |
| 2060 | 3.41.4–8.9 | 51.936–69.9 |
| 2061 | 3.91.5–9.3 | 50.534.8–71.3 |
| 2062 | 3.71.4–10.1 | 50.532.7–71 |
| 2063 | 4.11.4–10.3 | 50.434.3–69.7 |
| 2064 | 3.61.2–10.1 | 5134.1–67.7 |
| 2065 | 4.21.4–10.4 | 50.433.6–70.2 |
| 2066 | 41.4–10.5 | 5335.7–72.4 |
| 2067 | 3.91.3–9.9 | 50.634.8–70.4 |
| 2068 | 4.21.4–10.3 | 54.837.8–72.5 |
| 2069 | 4.61.7–11.6 | 54.339.1–73.4 |
| 2070 | 3.81.3–11.8 | 54.337.2–73.3 |
| 2071 | 41.4–11.5 | 55.837.9–76.9 |
| 2072 | 4.51.8–10.9 | 5639.4–78.6 |
| 2073 | 4.61.5–11.7 | 60.443.4–80.3 |
| 2074 | 4.41.7–11.7 | 57.439.1–75.3 |
| 2075 | 4.31.6–11.3 | 56.137.7–76 |
| 2076 | 4.91.8–12 | 58.538.4–75.3 |
| 2077 | 4.81.9–10.9 | 57.341–80.5 |
| 2078 | 4.92.1–12 | 5639.5–79 |
| 2079 | 5.42–12.7 | 57.639.3–78 |
| 2080 | 4.91.8–12.5 | 59.540.3–80.9 |
| 2081 | 5.12.1–12.5 | 5841.5–79.6 |
| 2082 | 51.9–13.9 | 58.839.7–77.7 |
| 2083 | 5.42.2–13.2 | 60.839.1–82.9 |
| 2084 | 5.42–12.2 | 62.540.4–82.9 |
| 2085 | 5.21.7–13.3 | 60.741.3–87.6 |
| 2086 | 5.31.8–14.1 | 60.542.1–83.3 |
| 2087 | 5.31.9–13.6 | 57.941–82.9 |
| 2088 | 5.51.9–13.6 | 64.243.4–85.3 |
| 2089 | 5.22.2–12.5 | 61.541.3–81.2 |
| 2090 | 5.42–12 | 61.641.5–86.8 |
| 2091 | 5.91.9–15.4 | 63.341.6–86.3 |
| 2092 | 5.92–13.2 | 63.144.9–84.8 |
| 2093 | 5.61.8–14 | 62.443.2–86.1 |
| 2094 | 6.12.2–15.1 | 63.145.6–87.4 |
| 2095 | 5.62.1–14.7 | 65.342.6–91.7 |
| 2096 | 6.22.2–14.9 | 6142.7–90.1 |
| 2097 | 6.21.9–14.7 | 58.841.2–84.6 |
| 2098 | 6.12.1–14.3 | 65.143.8–89.8 |
| 2099 | 5.61.8–14.7 | 64.345–87 |
| 2100 | 5.92.2–14.8 | 58.742–88.2 |
国ごとに見る
知っておきたいこと
- 気温が 20 °C を下回らない夜の年間日数の国内平均。
- 出典：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
- 破線はCMIP6 モデル中央値（SSP2-4.5、中道）です。確定した見通しではなく、ひとつのシナリオです。帯はそのモデルの 10〜90 パーセンタイルを示します。
- 気候モデルの値は CMIP6 モデルの中央値で、2014 年までは過去の排出量、それ以降は中間的な経路である SSP2-4.5 に基づいて計算したものです。観測値ではありません。
各レイヤーの仕組み、データの出どころ、そこからはわからないこと： 国々の推移