保加利亚与土耳其：热带夜

2014 年热带夜：保加利亚为 9.4 夜，土耳其为 19.8 夜（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年土耳其的数值较高，高出 10.5 夜，是保加利亚的 2.12 倍。

每年夜数 · CMIP6

保加利亚土耳其CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径）模型第 10–90 百分位

数据解读

自 1950 年以来，在两国都有数据的每一年，土耳其的数值都更高。
根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年保加利亚为 46.1 夜，土耳其为 45.5 夜。

逐年数据

每年夜数 · CMIP6

年份	保加利亚	土耳其
2014	9.4	19.8
2013	8.7	18.5
2012	8.4	18.7
2011	9.6	18.5
2010	8.6	18.7
2009	7.6	17.6
2008	7.5	18.2
2007	6.4	16.6
2006	8.4	17.7
2005	6.1	17.2
2004	6.8	17.1
2003	6.5	17.6
2002	5.7	16.8
2001	6.1	17.3
2000	7	16.4
1999	5.7	15.9
1998	3.9	14.7
1997	3.9	15
1996	4	14.8
1995	3.5	14.1
1994	3.1	13.5
1993	2.7	12.1
1992	1.8	11.5
1991	3.4	13.4
1990	3.7	14.6
1989	3.6	13.1
1988	2.1	12.9
1987	2.3	12.5
1986	3.4	13.3
1985	2.3	12.4
1984	2.3	11.9
1983	2.1	10.7
1982	1.9	12.4
1981	2	12.2
1980	2	12.4
1979	2.5	12
1978	2.3	11.5
1977	2	11.2
1976	2.1	12
1975	2.6	11.5
1974	1.9	11.8
1973	1.8	11.6
1972	1.9	11.5
1971	2.6	12.1
1970	1.8	11.6
1969	2.1	12
1968	2.3	12
1967	1.7	11.3
1966	2.1	11.5
1965	1.8	10.8
1964	1.8	11.2
1963	2.1	12
1962	2.3	11.8
1961	2.2	12
1960	3.2	12.9
1959	3	12.6
1958	3.1	13
1957	2.3	12.2
1956	2.6	12.7
1955	3.1	11.9
1954	2.3	11.9
1953	3.1	12.9
1952	3	12.1
1951	2.7	12.5
1950	2.9	12.3

CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100

年份	保加利亚	土耳其
2015	12.34.7–21.7	22.216.2–29.8
2016	11.72.9–21.6	21.114.7–29.6
2017	11.23.5–23.1	21.914.3–29.4
2018	11.63.6–23.7	22.916–29.9
2019	12.15.3–19.7	21.916.4–29.5
2020	15.45.1–25.5	23.617–31.6
2021	12.35.7–20.2	2317.1–30.9
2022	12.95.8–26.9	23.617.3–31.6
2023	14.25.3–26.2	24.717.8–33.4
2024	15.95.4–26.8	25.418.6–34.1
2025	16.45.1–27.5	2518.1–33
2026	17.85.5–26.7	25.618.3–34.1
2027	14.44.4–27.9	24.816.9–34.8
2028	14.97.6–26.9	25.218.7–32
2029	19.49.8–31.7	26.219.8–34.4
2030	16.49.6–26.8	25.919.3–34.5
2031	18.69.3–29.5	26.419.7–35.1
2032	21.79.3–33.7	27.219.9–35.6
2033	20.210.3–32.2	28.721.4–36.9
2034	20.210–30.3	27.620.8–34.7
2035	22.68.6–35.9	28.721.7–37
2036	21.111.3–36.3	28.720.9–38.1
2037	22.310.5–34.2	29.721.3–38.6
2038	21.211.2–41.5	29.922–41.6
2039	23.712.3–35.9	30.923.6–40.3
2040	23.68.9–36.6	30.923.2–40.9
2041	21.712.3–37.7	30.122.2–40.5
2042	24.510.5–39.5	29.920.1–40.7
2043	23.814–38.5	3123.6–40.4
2044	24.99.8–41.3	30.823.1–43.5
2045	24.810.5–40.2	32.424–43.1
2046	24.39.1–44.3	32.923.5–42.8
2047	26.612.3–41.7	32.324.1–44.9
2048	31.69.8–44.3	34.123–45.9
2049	27.810.1–42.5	31.622.1–43.2
2050	28.512.4–42.4	33.423.8–44.2
2051	27.914.7–42.4	34.125–43.1
2052	26.715.1–40.4	33.325.3–42.6
2053	29.920.3–41.2	35.326.6–44.2
2054	31.116.8–43.7	34.624–44.1
2055	30.912.4–48	35.425.9–47.7
2056	27.813.6–43.4	34.424.1–45.6
2057	30.714.7–45.6	36.326–47.4
2058	32.913.6–54	36.425.8–51.8
2059	30.111.8–47.1	37.124.8–48.1
2060	30.418.4–46.8	35.826.7–48.3
2061	3415.3–49.4	38.826.3–49.7
2062	33.415.5–49.6	37.725.3–49.5
2063	33.316.1–52.2	38.426.6–51.7
2064	3219.4–46.3	38.928.4–49.9
2065	36.119.2–49.3	39.628.6–49.4
2066	33.817.4–50.1	36.325–49.1
2067	36.720.1–53.7	38.327.7–50.7
2068	38.918.4–50.6	39.928–50.7
2069	34.718.6–54.6	39.729.2–52.2
2070	35.119.1–55.2	39.527.6–51.7
2071	36.315.4–53.7	39.829.1–51.7
2072	39.621.5–61	41.928.9–54.2
2073	36.817–51.6	40.927.2–54.6
2074	36.221.8–55	39.428–51.9
2075	35.517.1–56.1	39.828.4–53.9
2076	39.917.5–56.6	41.529.1–53.7
2077	38.921–55.7	41.329–53.3
2078	40.622.3–58.8	42.231.3–52.9
2079	43.716.2–63	4430.8–56.6
2080	41.922.6–58	43.432.5–54.9
2081	3721.7–54	42.131.7–54.6
2082	41.821.3–62.8	43.630.9–56
2083	41.120.6–60.6	4629.6–57.6
2084	44.928–58.4	45.131–56.8
2085	42.324.6–55.6	43.330.3–54.5
2086	45.722.3–60.9	43.830.2–56.4
2087	45.221.9–66.5	44.229.2–59
2088	45.226.7–64.5	44.932.7–58.1
2089	42.522.3–63.6	44.630.7–59.3
2090	46.928.7–62.3	46.132.8–59.2
2091	47.425.9–63.8	45.332.2–61.2
2092	43.921.1–63.8	45.631.1–59.2
2093	43.520.2–67.4	47.631.5–61.8
2094	45.826.7–68.8	47.533.7–61.2
2095	47.521.4–61.3	46.232.3–60.2
2096	44.419.9–69.3	45.731.1–60.7
2097	47.621.2–64.6	48.432.1–61
2098	45.822.5–65.4	46.431.2–59.5
2099	45.221.5–62.5	45.430.8–58
2100	46.123–66.7	45.530.4–60.1

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须知

一年中气温始终高于 20 °C 的夜晚数，取全国平均。
来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。

各图层如何运作、数据从何而来，以及它们无法告诉你什么：历年各国数据

保加利亚与土耳其对比

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冲突

冲突死亡人数保加利亚：2022 年为 0 人死亡土耳其：2022 年为 128 人死亡