法国与南非：热带夜

2014 年热带夜：法国为 3.1 夜，南非为 27.1 夜（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年南非的数值较高，高出 24.1 夜，是法国的 8.86 倍。

每年夜数 · CMIP6

法国南非CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径）模型第 10–90 百分位

数据解读

自 1950 年以来，在两国都有数据的每一年，南非的数值都更高。
根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年法国为 19.2 夜，南非为 58.7 夜。

逐年数据

每年夜数 · CMIP6

年份	法国	南非
2014	3.1	27.1
2013	3.1	28.3
2012	2.9	27.9
2011	2.7	26.1
2010	3.9	26
2009	2.5	25.8
2008	2.4	24.8
2007	2.1	24.7
2006	2.6	25.5
2005	2.9	25.3
2004	2.7	25.8
2003	2.6	25.1
2002	1.8	25
2001	2.3	24.5
2000	1.8	23.3
1999	2.1	23
1998	1.5	23.4
1997	1.6	22.5
1996	1.5	20.4
1995	1.3	19.3
1994	1.5	20
1993	1.1	18.1
1992	1	18.1
1991	1.8	22.3
1990	1.9	22.7
1989	1.2	22
1988	1.2	21.2
1987	1.3	21.9
1986	0.9	21
1985	0.9	18.9
1984	1.1	20
1983	1.1	19
1982	1	20.3
1981	1.1	20
1980	1.2	21.2
1979	0.9	19.9
1978	1.3	19.8
1977	0.9	19.2
1976	0.8	19.2
1975	0.9	18.8
1974	1.2	19.7
1973	0.9	19.6
1972	0.9	19
1971	1	19.1
1970	0.9	18.6
1969	1	18.7
1968	0.9	17.8
1967	0.8	17.5
1966	0.8	17.8
1965	0.7	17.2
1964	1	14.9
1963	0.9	16.5
1962	1.1	19.6
1961	0.9	19.7
1960	1.1	19.8
1959	1.2	18.5
1958	1	19.3
1957	1	19.4
1956	1.2	18
1955	1.1	19.5
1954	1.3	18.4
1953	1	18.4
1952	1.3	19.3
1951	1.1	18.9
1950	1.2	18.1

CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100

年份	法国	南非
2015	3.61.5–8.6	28.620–39.5
2016	4.11.5–9.9	26.817.8–37.9
2017	3.51.3–10.2	28.919.6–37.8
2018	3.91.7–10.8	29.620.6–40.6
2019	4.51.6–9	29.820.8–41.5
2020	4.11.6–10.5	29.518.9–39.1
2021	4.51.3–13.2	31.121.4–42.9
2022	51.5–12.5	3223.7–43.1
2023	4.81.6–12.5	31.922.9–41.8
2024	5.51.8–11.2	3324–45.6
2025	5.81.5–12.1	31.920.7–44.5
2026	6.22.1–12.7	34.521.9–46.9
2027	5.41.7–11.2	34.423–47.7
2028	5.91.7–13.3	33.522.9–46
2029	6.31.9–12.6	36.226.5–48.3
2030	5.82.1–11.9	36.124.9–49
2031	5.92–11.8	36.324.5–50.3
2032	5.92.7–12.9	36.424.5–49.2
2033	72.5–13.6	36.924.5–48.3
2034	7.92.4–17.3	37.626.4–51.8
2035	6.92.4–14.4	37.625.2–49.5
2036	7.32.6–14.6	3826.5–50.5
2037	7.32.6–13.3	39.928.2–53.4
2038	6.53–15.1	41.528.4–54.2
2039	6.92.6–14.3	39.227–52.9
2040	7.72.3–16	38.125.6–55.6
2041	8.12.6–15.2	40.227.4–54.3
2042	6.93–16	4229–56.4
2043	7.92.8–15.6	42.128.2–58.4
2044	7.93.1–16.6	41.929.5–57.8
2045	9.23.2–19.6	42.728.2–59
2046	8.93.2–17.6	44.130–59.5
2047	9.74–19.2	44.630.7–61.2
2048	9.13.4–17	4531.9–61.5
2049	10.13.7–20.8	45.632.3–61.4
2050	10.94.8–18.9	46.931–63.6
2051	9.23.5–18.4	47.532–65
2052	103.4–21.2	48.332.7–64.3
2053	8.73.8–18	45.733.7–62.1
2054	9.74.4–19.2	4833.3–64.3
2055	9.93.9–17.2	46.833–68.4
2056	114.3–21.8	47.933.2–64.8
2057	10.94.2–19.8	50.232.6–68.9
2058	13.85.1–25.7	47.934–66.4
2059	11.23.3–25	51.333.1–66.9
2060	12.86.1–22	51.936–69.9
2061	12.64.7–23.2	50.534.8–71.3
2062	12.36.2–22.4	50.532.7–71
2063	125.2–24.9	50.434.3–69.7
2064	125.3–21.6	5134.1–67.7
2065	12.53.9–30.8	50.433.6–70.2
2066	11.55.3–22.1	5335.7–72.4
2067	18.38.1–33.3	50.634.8–70.4
2068	135.4–23.4	54.837.8–72.5
2069	15.65.7–25.5	54.339.1–73.4
2070	13.55.2–29.1	54.337.2–73.3
2071	154.4–30.2	55.837.9–76.9
2072	15.57.4–26	5639.4–78.6
2073	13.96–29.1	60.443.4–80.3
2074	12.84.3–27.3	57.439.1–75.3
2075	13.96.3–25.6	56.137.7–76
2076	166.1–33.8	58.538.4–75.3
2077	13.25–29.8	57.341–80.5
2078	13.75.1–33.6	5639.5–79
2079	12.95.3–28.4	57.639.3–78
2080	14.45.4–27.9	59.540.3–80.9
2081	15.15.8–29.8	5841.5–79.6
2082	16.46.1–33.9	58.839.7–77.7
2083	15.97.9–32	60.839.1–82.9
2084	14.16.6–27.7	62.540.4–82.9
2085	16.57.3–30.2	60.741.3–87.6
2086	19.55.5–32.4	60.542.1–83.3
2087	196.9–38	57.941–82.9
2088	18.47.7–35.2	64.243.4–85.3
2089	1910.6–29.3	61.541.3–81.2
2090	16.36.8–33.5	61.641.5–86.8
2091	19.77.6–32.3	63.341.6–86.3
2092	17.36.1–32.7	63.144.9–84.8
2093	156.5–29.8	62.443.2–86.1
2094	18.68.5–32.8	63.145.6–87.4
2095	19.25.9–38.9	65.342.6–91.7
2096	19.37.6–35.5	6142.7–90.1
2097	17.36.2–36.1	58.841.2–84.6
2098	18.16.9–36.3	65.143.8–89.8
2099	20.37.4–34.6	64.345–87
2100	19.27–36.7	58.742–88.2

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须知

一年中气温始终高于 20 °C 的夜晚数，取全国平均。
来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。

各图层如何运作、数据从何而来，以及它们无法告诉你什么：历年各国数据

法国与南非对比

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冲突

冲突死亡人数法国：2022 年为 0 人死亡南非：2022 年为 0 人死亡