南非与苏丹：热带夜

2014 年热带夜：南非为 27.1 夜，苏丹为 242.4 夜（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年苏丹的数值较高，高出 215.3 夜，是南非的 8.94 倍。

每年夜数 · CMIP6

南非苏丹CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径）模型第 10–90 百分位

数据解读

自 1950 年以来，在两国都有数据的每一年，苏丹的数值都更高。
根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年南非为 58.7 夜，苏丹为 278.6 夜。

逐年数据

每年夜数 · CMIP6

年份	南非	苏丹
2014	27.1	242.4
2013	28.3	240
2012	27.9	242
2011	26.1	242.2
2010	26	240.6
2009	25.8	236.5
2008	24.8	237.1
2007	24.7	236
2006	25.5	235.3
2005	25.3	233.1
2004	25.8	233.5
2003	25.1	235.6
2002	25	234.7
2001	24.5	235.4
2000	23.3	230.5
1999	23	232.1
1998	23.4	230.2
1997	22.5	231.1
1996	20.4	227.3
1995	19.3	227.8
1994	20	225.3
1993	18.1	219.1
1992	18.1	217.8
1991	22.3	227.3
1990	22.7	227.5
1989	22	223
1988	21.2	223.1
1987	21.9	224.4
1986	21	226.4
1985	18.9	222.1
1984	20	220.7
1983	19	217
1982	20.3	216.3
1981	20	223.2
1980	21.2	220
1979	19.9	218.4
1978	19.8	218.5
1977	19.2	219.3
1976	19.2	220.1
1975	18.8	215.7
1974	19.7	217.5
1973	19.6	220
1972	19	217.9
1971	19.1	215.5
1970	18.6	217
1969	18.7	213.1
1968	17.8	214
1967	17.5	210.3
1966	17.8	213.3
1965	17.2	213.4
1964	14.9	213.2
1963	16.5	210.1
1962	19.6	217
1961	19.7	216.9
1960	19.8	221.3
1959	18.5	217.8
1958	19.3	216.2
1957	19.4	218.9
1956	18	217.2
1955	19.5	216.6
1954	18.4	218.9
1953	18.4	215.1
1952	19.3	216.4
1951	18.9	218.5
1950	18.1	214.1

CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100

年份	南非	苏丹
2015	28.620–39.5	242.3225.3–258.3
2016	26.817.8–37.9	241.4223.3–254.1
2017	28.919.6–37.8	243.2223–259.1
2018	29.620.6–40.6	242.3226.4–258.5
2019	29.820.8–41.5	243.1221.7–260.4
2020	29.518.9–39.1	244.9225.9–261.7
2021	31.121.4–42.9	245.6229.1–261.5
2022	3223.7–43.1	249230.9–262.3
2023	31.922.9–41.8	247.1226.8–263.1
2024	3324–45.6	251.5232.8–266.1
2025	31.920.7–44.5	250.7232.4–265.6
2026	34.521.9–46.9	250230.8–266.6
2027	34.423–47.7	248.8228.4–265.6
2028	33.522.9–46	249232.2–263.1
2029	36.226.5–48.3	251.4232.1–266
2030	36.124.9–49	252235.4–266.7
2031	36.324.5–50.3	253.3234.4–268.9
2032	36.424.5–49.2	250.4232.3–266.6
2033	36.924.5–48.3	254.4235.3–269.4
2034	37.626.4–51.8	254.2234.5–269.9
2035	37.625.2–49.5	258.3240.2–273.6
2036	3826.5–50.5	252.8235.6–268.6
2037	39.928.2–53.4	256.7238.6–271.8
2038	41.528.4–54.2	258.7244.8–272.1
2039	39.227–52.9	259.5241.2–272.5
2040	38.125.6–55.6	256.4236.7–272.3
2041	40.227.4–54.3	259.1241.2–274.5
2042	4229–56.4	258.7242–274.7
2043	42.128.2–58.4	258.1240.3–272.6
2044	41.929.5–57.8	257.3238.6–274.7
2045	42.728.2–59	258.8243.1–276.2
2046	44.130–59.5	261.1241.7–277.6
2047	44.630.7–61.2	261.4244.6–278.4
2048	4531.9–61.5	260.4243.4–279.5
2049	45.632.3–61.4	261.9242.6–275.9
2050	46.931–63.6	263.5245.4–279
2051	47.532–65	263.6246.6–278.8
2052	48.332.7–64.3	263.8248.7–278.3
2053	45.733.7–62.1	262.8242.4–279.2
2054	4833.3–64.3	266.3246.6–282.9
2055	46.833–68.4	265.6245.9–281.4
2056	47.933.2–64.8	264.1242.6–281.5
2057	50.232.6–68.9	266.4247.6–283.4
2058	47.934–66.4	265.2247.4–280.3
2059	51.333.1–66.9	268.4249.6–285.4
2060	51.936–69.9	263.6246.7–284.4
2061	50.534.8–71.3	266.9250.1–281.9
2062	50.532.7–71	266.4248.5–285
2063	50.434.3–69.7	267.1246.9–283.4
2064	5134.1–67.7	269250.7–284.7
2065	50.433.6–70.2	269.8253.9–285.6
2066	5335.7–72.4	271.4251.9–287.3
2067	50.634.8–70.4	270.9250–288.4
2068	54.837.8–72.5	271.9251.7–289.8
2069	54.339.1–73.4	268251.1–286.2
2070	54.337.2–73.3	269252.3–285.8
2071	55.837.9–76.9	275.5254.1–290.4
2072	5639.4–78.6	273.3254.2–289.4
2073	60.443.4–80.3	271.9250.7–287.6
2074	57.439.1–75.3	270.9249–290.1
2075	56.137.7–76	273.1254–291.9
2076	58.538.4–75.3	272.7255.2–290.9
2077	57.341–80.5	274.6255.2–292.7
2078	5639.5–79	274.3255.6–291.2
2079	57.639.3–78	272255.2–288.5
2080	59.540.3–80.9	276.6256–292.2
2081	5841.5–79.6	275.1254.1–294.8
2082	58.839.7–77.7	272.9258.7–288.6
2083	60.839.1–82.9	276.5258–291.7
2084	62.540.4–82.9	275.4253–294.9
2085	60.741.3–87.6	275.3258.6–291.6
2086	60.542.1–83.3	276.4256.9–296.6
2087	57.941–82.9	273.5253.1–293.3
2088	64.243.4–85.3	273.6253.7–293.6
2089	61.541.3–81.2	276.5256.6–293.4
2090	61.641.5–86.8	276.6256.4–294.6
2091	63.341.6–86.3	277.4256.4–296.6
2092	63.144.9–84.8	274.6254.3–294.9
2093	62.443.2–86.1	278261.9–292.1
2094	63.145.6–87.4	280.3262.2–294
2095	65.342.6–91.7	277.5262.6–294
2096	6142.7–90.1	279.7258.7–297
2097	58.841.2–84.6	276.3254.1–297.6
2098	65.143.8–89.8	277.7258.2–295.5
2099	64.345–87	276.8257.2–296.2
2100	58.742–88.2	278.6259–294.3

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须知

一年中气温始终高于 20 °C 的夜晚数，取全国平均。
来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。

各图层如何运作、数据从何而来，以及它们无法告诉你什么：历年各国数据

南非与苏丹对比

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冲突

冲突死亡人数南非：2022 年为 0 人死亡苏丹：2022 年为 1,364 人死亡