苏丹与津巴布韦：热带夜

2014 年热带夜：苏丹为 242.4 夜，津巴布韦为 76.4 夜（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年苏丹的数值较高，高出 166 夜，是津巴布韦的 3.17 倍。

每年夜数 · CMIP6

苏丹津巴布韦CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径）模型第 10–90 百分位

数据解读

自 1950 年以来，在两国都有数据的每一年，苏丹的数值都更高。
根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年苏丹为 278.6 夜，津巴布韦为 148.3 夜。

逐年数据

每年夜数 · CMIP6

年份	苏丹	津巴布韦
2014	242.4	76.4
2013	240	78.4
2012	242	75.9
2011	242.2	73.3
2010	240.6	71.5
2009	236.5	69.6
2008	237.1	69.8
2007	236	69.3
2006	235.3	70.3
2005	233.1	69.5
2004	233.5	71.8
2003	235.6	72.9
2002	234.7	71.3
2001	235.4	71.3
2000	230.5	67.4
1999	232.1	62.3
1998	230.2	66.3
1997	231.1	62
1996	227.3	57.7
1995	227.8	58.9
1994	225.3	56.8
1993	219.1	50.1
1992	217.8	52.1
1991	227.3	58.7
1990	227.5	61.5
1989	223	60.4
1988	223.1	61.6
1987	224.4	57.3
1986	226.4	58.6
1985	222.1	54.1
1984	220.7	54.6
1983	217	53.3
1982	216.3	53.7
1981	223.2	57
1980	220	57.3
1979	218.4	56.2
1978	218.5	53.1
1977	219.3	55.2
1976	220.1	51.2
1975	215.7	53.6
1974	217.5	54.2
1973	220	53.9
1972	217.9	53.2
1971	215.5	51.1
1970	217	53.1
1969	213.1	53.3
1968	214	48.7
1967	210.3	48.7
1966	213.3	48.8
1965	213.4	48.6
1964	213.2	44.6
1963	210.1	47.4
1962	217	55.8
1961	216.9	51.6
1960	221.3	55.6
1959	217.8	53.6
1958	216.2	55.3
1957	218.9	53.2
1956	217.2	48.6
1955	216.6	54.4
1954	218.9	53
1953	215.1	51.8
1952	216.4	52.7
1951	218.5	52.3
1950	214.1	51.8

CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100

年份	苏丹	津巴布韦
2015	242.3225.3–258.3	79.463.5–98.5
2016	241.4223.3–254.1	78.657.9–101.7
2017	243.2223–259.1	81.263.3–98.5
2018	242.3226.4–258.5	82.160.5–104.1
2019	243.1221.7–260.4	82.863.9–102.3
2020	244.9225.9–261.7	84.362.9–106.9
2021	245.6229.1–261.5	82.564.7–102.7
2022	249230.9–262.3	89.870.1–108.8
2023	247.1226.8–263.1	90.672.5–110.7
2024	251.5232.8–266.1	93.769.8–113.4
2025	250.7232.4–265.6	8865.1–114.6
2026	250230.8–266.6	89.767.8–113.9
2027	248.8228.4–265.6	95.668.4–119.6
2028	249232.2–263.1	93.371.4–115.7
2029	251.4232.1–266	100.277.2–120
2030	252235.4–266.7	9671.6–115.3
2031	253.3234.4–268.9	9874.9–119.8
2032	250.4232.3–266.6	98.574.7–118.5
2033	254.4235.3–269.4	98.974–120.6
2034	254.2234.5–269.9	100.277.3–128.1
2035	258.3240.2–273.6	103.975.7–130.6
2036	252.8235.6–268.6	100.878–123
2037	256.7238.6–271.8	10882.1–131.1
2038	258.7244.8–272.1	110.986.5–135
2039	259.5241.2–272.5	102.480.4–122.3
2040	256.4236.7–272.3	101.379.5–133.5
2041	259.1241.2–274.5	108.483.7–134.2
2042	258.7242–274.7	108.883.1–139.9
2043	258.1240.3–272.6	107.985.7–137.3
2044	257.3238.6–274.7	111.287–134.8
2045	258.8243.1–276.2	106.186.2–130.7
2046	261.1241.7–277.6	112.386.4–139.1
2047	261.4244.6–278.4	119.692.1–145.9
2048	260.4243.4–279.5	116.888.4–143.9
2049	261.9242.6–275.9	119.290.4–146.2
2050	263.5245.4–279	122.794.1–148.6
2051	263.6246.6–278.8	122.4100.9–147.7
2052	263.8248.7–278.3	124.2101.3–152.8
2053	262.8242.4–279.2	121.689–146.9
2054	266.3246.6–282.9	123.993.9–150.8
2055	265.6245.9–281.4	126.597.9–153.7
2056	264.1242.6–281.5	126.198–154.7
2057	266.4247.6–283.4	122.797.6–150.7
2058	265.2247.4–280.3	125.3103–154.1
2059	268.4249.6–285.4	132.2107.4–157.4
2060	263.6246.7–284.4	132.599.9–159
2061	266.9250.1–281.9	126.694.2–161.1
2062	266.4248.5–285	126.399.6–157.3
2063	267.1246.9–283.4	127.7101–159.7
2064	269250.7–284.7	130.498–151.3
2065	269.8253.9–285.6	132.4107.6–165.6
2066	271.4251.9–287.3	134.5106.8–159.8
2067	270.9250–288.4	125.598.9–160.5
2068	271.9251.7–289.8	134102.3–166.1
2069	268251.1–286.2	136.9106.4–164.2
2070	269252.3–285.8	133.199.8–166.3
2071	275.5254.1–290.4	135.2108.4–173.7
2072	273.3254.2–289.4	140.4110.6–166.8
2073	271.9250.7–287.6	140.9109.7–173.6
2074	270.9249–290.1	135.5112–170.6
2075	273.1254–291.9	136108.5–166.6
2076	272.7255.2–290.9	133.7105.9–163.7
2077	274.6255.2–292.7	140.2114.3–170.6
2078	274.3255.6–291.2	137.5111.3–172.3
2079	272255.2–288.5	136.9110.2–172.6
2080	276.6256–292.2	145115.8–173.2
2081	275.1254.1–294.8	147.2106.5–174.1
2082	272.9258.7–288.6	141.4111.4–169.9
2083	276.5258–291.7	143.6106.5–179.2
2084	275.4253–294.9	149.4117.3–176.9
2085	275.3258.6–291.6	154.3114.9–182.7
2086	276.4256.9–296.6	141.7115.3–176.1
2087	273.5253.1–293.3	142.7116.8–177.3
2088	273.6253.7–293.6	150.2118.3–178.9
2089	276.5256.6–293.4	148.9121.3–176.4
2090	276.6256.4–294.6	145.7113.7–179.4
2091	277.4256.4–296.6	149.7116.5–181.8
2092	274.6254.3–294.9	149.4119.7–181.7
2093	278261.9–292.1	152.5117.1–184.1
2094	280.3262.2–294	150.9117.3–182.2
2095	277.5262.6–294	155118.3–181.5
2096	279.7258.7–297	152.4113.1–189.2
2097	276.3254.1–297.6	144.1113.8–183.3
2098	277.7258.2–295.5	152.4119.2–187
2099	276.8257.2–296.2	152.9117.3–185
2100	278.6259–294.3	148.3120.1–184.6

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须知

一年中气温始终高于 20 °C 的夜晚数，取全国平均。
来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。

各图层如何运作、数据从何而来，以及它们无法告诉你什么：历年各国数据

苏丹与津巴布韦对比

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冲突

冲突死亡人数苏丹：2022 年为 1,364 人死亡津巴布韦：2022 年为 0 人死亡