Northern lights in Smaliavičy, Belarus

Smaliavičy is at 50° magnetic latitude, far from the auroral oval: only strong geomagnetic storms bring the aurora into view, usually low in the northern sky.

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Right now · as of

NOAA’s model gives under 5% overhead in Smaliavičy right now, and nothing more within 500 km: little chance of seeing it.

It is quiet everywhere: the highest chance anywhere on Earth is 12%.

It is dark until 06:41.

NOAA SWPC’s OVATION nowcast for . It ignores cloud and moonlight.

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Smaliavičy and the auroral oval

  • Smaliavičy is at 50.4° magnetic latitude (IGRF-14 at 2026.8). The aurora circles the magnetic poles, so this says more about how often it is seen here than the latitude on a map does.
  • By a rough rule of thumb, the aurora reaches this far when the Kp index is 8 or more.

Good to know

  • NOAA’s model ignores cloud and moonlight: a high chance under cloud means nothing to see.
  • It looks about 30 minutes ahead, so it says nothing about later tonight.
  • Dark here means the sun at least 12° below the horizon; in twilight only a bright aurora shows.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Aurora forecast, Live clouds, Day and night, live

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