Belgium vs South Africa: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 0.2 nights in Belgium and 27.1 nights in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in South Africa, by 26.9 nights, or 110 times that in Belgium.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

BelgiumSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

South Africa has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Belgium at 7.7 nights and South Africa at 58.7 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Belgium	South Africa
2014	0.2	27.1
2013	0.5	28.3
2012	0.5	27.9
2011	0.1	26.1
2010	0.6	26
2009	0.1	25.8
2008	0	24.8
2007	0	24.7
2006	0	25.5
2005	0.3	25.3
2004	0.1	25.8
2003	0.4	25.1
2002	0	25
2001	0	24.5
2000	0	23.3
1999	0.2	23
1998	0	23.4
1997	0	22.5
1996	0	20.4
1995	0	19.3
1994	0	20
1993	0	18.1
1992	0	18.1
1991	0	22.3
1990	0	22.7
1989	0	22
1988	0	21.2
1987	0	21.9
1986	0	21
1985	0	18.9
1984	0	20
1983	0	19
1982	0	20.3
1981	0	20
1980	0	21.2
1979	0	19.9
1978	0	19.8
1977	0	19.2
1976	0	19.2
1975	0	18.8
1974	0	19.7
1973	0	19.6
1972	0	19
1971	0	19.1
1970	0	18.6
1969	0	18.7
1968	0	17.8
1967	0	17.5
1966	0	17.8
1965	0	17.2
1964	0	14.9
1963	0	16.5
1962	0	19.6
1961	0	19.7
1960	0	19.8
1959	0	18.5
1958	0	19.3
1957	0	19.4
1956	0	18
1955	0	19.5
1954	0	18.4
1953	0	18.4
1952	0	19.3
1951	0	18.9
1950	0	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Belgium	South Africa
2015	0.10–3.4	28.620–39.5
2016	0.40–3.5	26.817.8–37.9
2017	0.30–4.5	28.919.6–37.8
2018	0.30–2.1	29.620.6–40.6
2019	0.40–3	29.820.8–41.5
2020	0.40–4.4	29.518.9–39.1
2021	0.30–3.8	31.121.4–42.9
2022	0.70–4.2	3223.7–43.1
2023	0.60–4.8	31.922.9–41.8
2024	0.70–4.7	3324–45.6
2025	1.30–5.8	31.920.7–44.5
2026	1.20–5.5	34.521.9–46.9
2027	0.80–3.6	34.423–47.7
2028	0.60–6	33.522.9–46
2029	1.10–4.6	36.226.5–48.3
2030	0.90–4	36.124.9–49
2031	0.70–4	36.324.5–50.3
2032	0.70–5.4	36.424.5–49.2
2033	0.90–5	36.924.5–48.3
2034	1.50–8.7	37.626.4–51.8
2035	1.20–7.3	37.625.2–49.5
2036	1.50–6.5	3826.5–50.5
2037	1.60–7.1	39.928.2–53.4
2038	0.90–10.4	41.528.4–54.2
2039	0.90–5.5	39.227–52.9
2040	10–6.1	38.125.6–55.6
2041	1.80–7.2	40.227.4–54.3
2042	1.10–5.5	4229–56.4
2043	1.80–6	42.128.2–58.4
2044	1.60.1–7.4	41.929.5–57.8
2045	2.10–7.4	42.728.2–59
2046	1.40.1–8	44.130–59.5
2047	2.50.1–8.4	44.630.7–61.2
2048	2.20–10.9	4531.9–61.5
2049	2.70–9.2	45.632.3–61.4
2050	2.90.1–7.7	46.931–63.6
2051	1.70.1–6.5	47.532–65
2052	1.80–10.1	48.332.7–64.3
2053	1.20–7	45.733.7–62.1
2054	2.40.3–9.6	4833.3–64.3
2055	1.80–5.7	46.833–68.4
2056	3.50.1–10.1	47.933.2–64.8
2057	2.70–9.4	50.232.6–68.9
2058	4.30.2–12.1	47.934–66.4
2059	2.70–11.7	51.333.1–66.9
2060	2.90.1–10.7	51.936–69.9
2061	30.2–11.5	50.534.8–71.3
2062	4.10.3–11.8	50.532.7–71
2063	2.30.2–11	50.434.3–69.7
2064	2.10.3–8.1	5134.1–67.7
2065	30.1–14.1	50.433.6–70.2
2066	2.20–8.7	5335.7–72.4
2067	6.60.7–16.4	50.634.8–70.4
2068	1.90–7.8	54.837.8–72.5
2069	4.20.7–11.9	54.339.1–73.4
2070	3.90.1–13.1	54.337.2–73.3
2071	4.20.1–13.5	55.837.9–76.9
2072	4.51.3–10.4	5639.4–78.6
2073	3.70.1–15.1	60.443.4–80.3
2074	40.3–12.8	57.439.1–75.3
2075	3.60.2–15	56.137.7–76
2076	5.10.2–15.2	58.538.4–75.3
2077	4.40–14.7	57.341–80.5
2078	5.40.1–17.8	5639.5–79
2079	3.10.3–13.4	57.639.3–78
2080	4.60.3–12	59.540.3–80.9
2081	5.50.1–14.9	5841.5–79.6
2082	4.60.3–18.7	58.839.7–77.7
2083	4.50.7–14.2	60.839.1–82.9
2084	3.10.3–14	62.540.4–82.9
2085	40.3–16.3	60.741.3–87.6
2086	7.10.2–19.4	60.542.1–83.3
2087	7.30.2–23.2	57.941–82.9
2088	6.61.2–19.7	64.243.4–85.3
2089	5.71.2–11.1	61.541.3–81.2
2090	3.90–16.8	61.641.5–86.8
2091	7.60.2–16.1	63.341.6–86.3
2092	5.60.1–15	63.144.9–84.8
2093	3.70.3–13.6	62.443.2–86.1
2094	61.5–17	63.145.6–87.4
2095	7.10.2–17.3	65.342.6–91.7
2096	6.70.1–18.3	6142.7–90.1
2097	3.30.2–17.2	58.841.2–84.6
2098	5.90.4–17.2	65.143.8–89.8
2099	4.90.1–22	64.345–87
2100	7.70.5–15.1	58.742–88.2

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Belgium vs South Africa: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

Every year

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