Tropical nights in South Africa

Tropical nights in South Africa: 18.1 nights in 1950 and 27.1 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 27.1 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +9.1 nights
Projected, 2100: 58.7 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 58.7 nights in 2100, between 42 nights and 88.2 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 28.3 nights in 2013, the lowest 14.9 nights in 1964.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	South Africa
2014	27.1
2013	28.3
2012	27.9
2011	26.1
2010	26
2009	25.8
2008	24.8
2007	24.7
2006	25.5
2005	25.3
2004	25.8
2003	25.1
2002	25
2001	24.5
2000	23.3
1999	23
1998	23.4
1997	22.5
1996	20.4
1995	19.3
1994	20
1993	18.1
1992	18.1
1991	22.3
1990	22.7
1989	22
1988	21.2
1987	21.9
1986	21
1985	18.9
1984	20
1983	19
1982	20.3
1981	20
1980	21.2
1979	19.9
1978	19.8
1977	19.2
1976	19.2
1975	18.8
1974	19.7
1973	19.6
1972	19
1971	19.1
1970	18.6
1969	18.7
1968	17.8
1967	17.5
1966	17.8
1965	17.2
1964	14.9
1963	16.5
1962	19.6
1961	19.7
1960	19.8
1959	18.5
1958	19.3
1957	19.4
1956	18
1955	19.5
1954	18.4
1953	18.4
1952	19.3
1951	18.9
1950	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	South Africa
2015	28.620–39.5
2016	26.817.8–37.9
2017	28.919.6–37.8
2018	29.620.6–40.6
2019	29.820.8–41.5
2020	29.518.9–39.1
2021	31.121.4–42.9
2022	3223.7–43.1
2023	31.922.9–41.8
2024	3324–45.6
2025	31.920.7–44.5
2026	34.521.9–46.9
2027	34.423–47.7
2028	33.522.9–46
2029	36.226.5–48.3
2030	36.124.9–49
2031	36.324.5–50.3
2032	36.424.5–49.2
2033	36.924.5–48.3
2034	37.626.4–51.8
2035	37.625.2–49.5
2036	3826.5–50.5
2037	39.928.2–53.4
2038	41.528.4–54.2
2039	39.227–52.9
2040	38.125.6–55.6
2041	40.227.4–54.3
2042	4229–56.4
2043	42.128.2–58.4
2044	41.929.5–57.8
2045	42.728.2–59
2046	44.130–59.5
2047	44.630.7–61.2
2048	4531.9–61.5
2049	45.632.3–61.4
2050	46.931–63.6
2051	47.532–65
2052	48.332.7–64.3
2053	45.733.7–62.1
2054	4833.3–64.3
2055	46.833–68.4
2056	47.933.2–64.8
2057	50.232.6–68.9
2058	47.934–66.4
2059	51.333.1–66.9
2060	51.936–69.9
2061	50.534.8–71.3
2062	50.532.7–71
2063	50.434.3–69.7
2064	5134.1–67.7
2065	50.433.6–70.2
2066	5335.7–72.4
2067	50.634.8–70.4
2068	54.837.8–72.5
2069	54.339.1–73.4
2070	54.337.2–73.3
2071	55.837.9–76.9
2072	5639.4–78.6
2073	60.443.4–80.3
2074	57.439.1–75.3
2075	56.137.7–76
2076	58.538.4–75.3
2077	57.341–80.5
2078	5639.5–79
2079	57.639.3–78
2080	59.540.3–80.9
2081	5841.5–79.6
2082	58.839.7–77.7
2083	60.839.1–82.9
2084	62.540.4–82.9
2085	60.741.3–87.6
2086	60.542.1–83.3
2087	57.941–82.9
2088	64.243.4–85.3
2089	61.541.3–81.2
2090	61.641.5–86.8
2091	63.341.6–86.3
2092	63.144.9–84.8
2093	62.443.2–86.1
2094	63.145.6–87.4
2095	65.342.6–91.7
2096	6142.7–90.1
2097	58.841.2–84.6
2098	65.143.8–89.8
2099	64.345–87
2100	58.742–88.2

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Tropical nights in South Africa

What the numbers say

Every year

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