Nigeria vs South Africa: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 303.9 nights in Nigeria and 27.1 nights in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Nigeria, by 276.8 nights, or 11 times that in South Africa.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

NigeriaSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Nigeria has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Nigeria at 332.3 nights and South Africa at 58.7 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Nigeria	South Africa
2014	303.9	27.1
2013	299.5	28.3
2012	304.4	27.9
2011	301.5	26.1
2010	301.4	26
2009	297.8	25.8
2008	297.4	24.8
2007	298	24.7
2006	297.2	25.5
2005	295.4	25.3
2004	294.1	25.8
2003	298.4	25.1
2002	295.2	25
2001	299.1	24.5
2000	293.9	23.3
1999	290.3	23
1998	289.9	23.4
1997	292.5	22.5
1996	290	20.4
1995	289.1	19.3
1994	287.4	20
1993	284	18.1
1992	281.6	18.1
1991	289.1	22.3
1990	290.6	22.7
1989	287.2	22
1988	288	21.2
1987	285.6	21.9
1986	289.1	21
1985	284.2	18.9
1984	284.4	20
1983	281.9	19
1982	283.5	20.3
1981	286.4	20
1980	282.8	21.2
1979	283	19.9
1978	282.8	19.8
1977	285.9	19.2
1976	281.7	19.2
1975	280.4	18.8
1974	280.7	19.7
1973	284.3	19.6
1972	284.1	19
1971	279.3	19.1
1970	282	18.6
1969	278.7	18.7
1968	279.6	17.8
1967	278.1	17.5
1966	279.4	17.8
1965	279	17.2
1964	276.8	14.9
1963	275.1	16.5
1962	284.1	19.6
1961	281.9	19.7
1960	285.9	19.8
1959	282.8	18.5
1958	281.4	19.3
1957	283.3	19.4
1956	280.8	18
1955	280.4	19.5
1954	284.1	18.4
1953	280.4	18.4
1952	280.8	19.3
1951	284.2	18.9
1950	279.3	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Nigeria	South Africa
2015	301.7282.9–317.3	28.620–39.5
2016	301.4280.8–312.5	26.817.8–37.9
2017	302.5284.3–316.3	28.919.6–37.8
2018	302.2286.8–316.5	29.620.6–40.6
2019	300.1281.2–318	29.820.8–41.5
2020	303283.7–318.5	29.518.9–39.1
2021	305.1287.1–318.4	31.121.4–42.9
2022	305.1286–319.5	3223.7–43.1
2023	305286.4–318.9	31.922.9–41.8
2024	310.6295.1–321.5	3324–45.6
2025	307.5292–319.4	31.920.7–44.5
2026	306.9286.1–322.9	34.521.9–46.9
2027	307.4288–321.7	34.423–47.7
2028	310.7293.4–322.6	33.522.9–46
2029	311.4293.3–324.4	36.226.5–48.3
2030	310.6294.1–322.5	36.124.9–49
2031	312.2295–324.8	36.324.5–50.3
2032	310290–323.5	36.424.5–49.2
2033	313292.9–327	36.924.5–48.3
2034	311.7294.8–325.1	37.626.4–51.8
2035	314.5296.7–327.7	37.625.2–49.5
2036	313.5294.1–326.5	3826.5–50.5
2037	315.6297.9–327.1	39.928.2–53.4
2038	316.9301.2–329.6	41.528.4–54.2
2039	315.4299.4–328.2	39.227–52.9
2040	315.6297.9–327.4	38.125.6–55.6
2041	316.8300.6–330.2	40.227.4–54.3
2042	316.3300.3–330.3	4229–56.4
2043	316298.4–326	42.128.2–58.4
2044	317.9299.5–329.6	41.929.5–57.8
2045	316.6300.5–330.4	42.728.2–59
2046	317.8302.2–330.7	44.130–59.5
2047	319.8301.5–333	44.630.7–61.2
2048	320.1302.4–331.7	4531.9–61.5
2049	320.7305.3–331.7	45.632.3–61.4
2050	320.9304–335	46.931–63.6
2051	321304.1–334.2	47.532–65
2052	320.9303.9–333.5	48.332.7–64.3
2053	320.9303.3–334.1	45.733.7–62.1
2054	324.5304.5–338.2	4833.3–64.3
2055	322.2308.4–333.7	46.833–68.4
2056	324.8305.8–336.3	47.933.2–64.8
2057	326310.8–337.3	50.232.6–68.9
2058	322.9307.4–334.2	47.934–66.4
2059	325.7308.9–339	51.333.1–66.9
2060	323.8307.5–337	51.936–69.9
2061	324.4307.1–338.2	50.534.8–71.3
2062	325.7308–339.3	50.532.7–71
2063	326.6308.7–337	50.434.3–69.7
2064	326.2311–339.8	5134.1–67.7
2065	327.6313.5–339.4	50.433.6–70.2
2066	328.4311.3–339.6	5335.7–72.4
2067	326308.4–340.5	50.634.8–70.4
2068	329.3311.2–342.9	54.837.8–72.5
2069	326.6309.9–338.1	54.339.1–73.4
2070	327.4312.6–340.7	54.337.2–73.3
2071	329.1313–341.1	55.837.9–76.9
2072	330.3315.9–342.1	5639.4–78.6
2073	326.3309.5–341	60.443.4–80.3
2074	326.7311.4–341.4	57.439.1–75.3
2075	328.9314.5–341.8	56.137.7–76
2076	329.6313.4–342	58.538.4–75.3
2077	332.5314.4–343.3	57.341–80.5
2078	329.8312.8–342.1	5639.5–79
2079	329.6313.8–340.6	57.639.3–78
2080	331.7314.1–344.8	59.540.3–80.9
2081	329.3311.6–343.7	5841.5–79.6
2082	329.3313.3–341.4	58.839.7–77.7
2083	330.4315–342.2	60.839.1–82.9
2084	330.5311.9–344.2	62.540.4–82.9
2085	332.7316.6–343.6	60.741.3–87.6
2086	331.9316.3–343.6	60.542.1–83.3
2087	330.7314.9–342.4	57.941–82.9
2088	331.7313.2–342.7	64.243.4–85.3
2089	331.1318.3–341.9	61.541.3–81.2
2090	332.4312.7–343.9	61.641.5–86.8
2091	333.3311–345.8	63.341.6–86.3
2092	332.7313.8–345.7	63.144.9–84.8
2093	334.2318.6–344.9	62.443.2–86.1
2094	334.2317.3–345.6	63.145.6–87.4
2095	333.8319.3–346.3	65.342.6–91.7
2096	332.5317.4–346.7	6142.7–90.1
2097	331.8312.6–344.6	58.841.2–84.6
2098	332.3316–343.7	65.143.8–89.8
2099	333316.9–344.2	64.345–87
2100	332.3318.5–345	58.742–88.2

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Nigeria vs South Africa: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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Nigeria vs South Africa

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