France vs Israel: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 3.1 nights in France and 97.9 nights in Israel, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Israel, by 94.9 nights, or 32 times that in France.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

FranceIsraelCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Israel has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts France at 19.2 nights and Israel at 149.4 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	France	Israel
2014	3.1	97.9
2013	3.1	98
2012	2.9	96.3
2011	2.7	96.1
2010	3.9	95.5
2009	2.5	92.5
2008	2.4	94.1
2007	2.1	92.7
2006	2.6	92
2005	2.9	92.3
2004	2.7	90.7
2003	2.6	93.9
2002	1.8	89.5
2001	2.3	91
2000	1.8	89.5
1999	2.1	86.2
1998	1.5	84.8
1997	1.6	84.2
1996	1.5	83.7
1995	1.3	79.3
1994	1.5	80.1
1993	1.1	71.6
1992	1	74.9
1991	1.8	78.4
1990	1.9	80.2
1989	1.2	76.9
1988	1.2	76.5
1987	1.3	75.1
1986	0.9	78.3
1985	0.9	74
1984	1.1	69.4
1983	1.1	68.9
1982	1	73.5
1981	1.1	73.5
1980	1.2	75.3
1979	0.9	68.7
1978	1.3	71.6
1977	0.9	72.3
1976	0.8	73.2
1975	0.9	70.9
1974	1.2	72.5
1973	0.9	71.9
1972	0.9	69.9
1971	1	73.1
1970	0.9	71.6
1969	1	70.6
1968	0.9	69.6
1967	0.8	66.9
1966	0.8	68.8
1965	0.7	63.5
1964	1	66.1
1963	0.9	70.9
1962	1.1	73
1961	0.9	71.5
1960	1.1	74.9
1959	1.2	75
1958	1	73
1957	1	74.8
1956	1.2	74.3
1955	1.1	72.8
1954	1.3	71.4
1953	1	73.7
1952	1.3	72
1951	1.1	75.1
1950	1.2	69.5

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	France	Israel
2015	3.61.5–8.6	105.988.4–122.7
2016	4.11.5–9.9	104.186.9–120.1
2017	3.51.3–10.2	107.892.2–121.4
2018	3.91.7–10.8	10993.8–124.2
2019	4.51.6–9	10989.1–124.5
2020	4.11.6–10.5	111.594.8–123.5
2021	4.51.3–13.2	11097.7–128.4
2022	51.5–12.5	111.493.6–130.2
2023	4.81.6–12.5	117.297.9–130.5
2024	5.51.8–11.2	114.5100.4–127.3
2025	5.81.5–12.1	116.698.3–129.2
2026	6.22.1–12.7	115.9104.9–126.2
2027	5.41.7–11.2	115.699–127.1
2028	5.91.7–13.3	116.3100.2–127.9
2029	6.31.9–12.6	117103.1–129.2
2030	5.82.1–11.9	118.6102.1–131.2
2031	5.92–11.8	116.8104.4–132.8
2032	5.92.7–12.9	121.4106.5–134.7
2033	72.5–13.6	122.1108.9–134.7
2034	7.92.4–17.3	119.7103.1–133.4
2035	6.92.4–14.4	122.8105.8–138.8
2036	7.32.6–14.6	120.2105.5–136.2
2037	7.32.6–13.3	121.6106.3–139.4
2038	6.53–15.1	126.5105.7–142.1
2039	6.92.6–14.3	127.7110.5–147.1
2040	7.72.3–16	124.2109.7–144.9
2041	8.12.6–15.2	126108.4–141.5
2042	6.93–16	128.5105.8–144.3
2043	7.92.8–15.6	126.5111.8–144.3
2044	7.93.1–16.6	125.9108.5–142.9
2045	9.23.2–19.6	130.9117.5–148.6
2046	8.93.2–17.6	131114.4–147.2
2047	9.74–19.2	132.3116.1–145.4
2048	9.13.4–17	129.9118.5–146.9
2049	10.13.7–20.8	127.9108.7–143.9
2050	10.94.8–18.9	133.3114.3–147
2051	9.23.5–18.4	130.3116.7–143.9
2052	103.4–21.2	130.3119.9–143.5
2053	8.73.8–18	135120.4–149.7
2054	9.74.4–19.2	134.1118.8–149.3
2055	9.93.9–17.2	134.1115.2–150.3
2056	114.3–21.8	136110.1–151.1
2057	10.94.2–19.8	132.7110.9–155
2058	13.85.1–25.7	135.7119.1–155.4
2059	11.23.3–25	138.8118.5–156.7
2060	12.86.1–22	136.1116.3–159.2
2061	12.64.7–23.2	136119–150.7
2062	12.36.2–22.4	139118.7–156
2063	125.2–24.9	137.4120.1–151.2
2064	125.3–21.6	139.3121–154.3
2065	12.53.9–30.8	139.6122.3–154.3
2066	11.55.3–22.1	137.3119.6–153.7
2067	18.38.1–33.3	142.8126–157.8
2068	135.4–23.4	141.2122.8–156.4
2069	15.65.7–25.5	141.5123.7–157.6
2070	13.55.2–29.1	141.8120.5–157.5
2071	154.4–30.2	142.9124.3–161.8
2072	15.57.4–26	144.3127–158.5
2073	13.96–29.1	143.6127.3–159.2
2074	12.84.3–27.3	138.8123–162.2
2075	13.96.3–25.6	138.1120.8–154.6
2076	166.1–33.8	143.2126.8–161.5
2077	13.25–29.8	142.8120.5–161.6
2078	13.75.1–33.6	143.6128.2–160.6
2079	12.95.3–28.4	148.6123.7–160.2
2080	14.45.4–27.9	145.5123.5–163.7
2081	15.15.8–29.8	143.7128.1–161.2
2082	16.46.1–33.9	145.8129.5–160.6
2083	15.97.9–32	149.4126–163.1
2084	14.16.6–27.7	148128.2–164
2085	16.57.3–30.2	149127.9–162.4
2086	19.55.5–32.4	148127.4–167.1
2087	196.9–38	146.4123.7–165.7
2088	18.47.7–35.2	147.6133.5–165.3
2089	1910.6–29.3	148.4131.4–169.1
2090	16.36.8–33.5	147.6132.4–168.8
2091	19.77.6–32.3	151.9131.7–170.6
2092	17.36.1–32.7	148.2132–167.4
2093	156.5–29.8	154.1135.3–172.2
2094	18.68.5–32.8	153.2133.6–170.3
2095	19.25.9–38.9	148.2131.4–164.1
2096	19.37.6–35.5	150.5130.5–172.6
2097	17.36.2–36.1	149.8134.4–172.7
2098	18.16.9–36.3	150.9131.3–170.1
2099	20.37.4–34.6	149.5129–166.6
2100	19.27–36.7	149.4130.1–168.5

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

France vs Israel: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

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