Guernsey

Temperature in Guernsey

Temperature in Guernsey: 11.8 °C in 1950 and 13 °C in 2025, by ERA5 observations.

Latest, 2025
13 °C
Since 1950
+1.2 °C
Projected, 2100
14.1 °C
CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)
Watch it change on the map

°C · ERA5

Temperature in GuernseyTemperature in Guernsey: 11.8 °C in 1950 and 13 °C in 2025, by ERA5 observations. The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 14.1 °C in 2100, between 13.1 °C and 15.2 °C (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
Observed, ERA5CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

  • The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 14.1 °C in 2100, between 13.1 °C and 15.2 °C (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
  • The highest was 13.2 °C in 2022, the lowest 10.5 °C in 1963.

Every year

°C · ERA5

YearObserved, ERA5CMIP6 historical run, model median
20251312.8
20241312.7
20231312.8
202213.212.7
202112.212.8
202012.812.8
201912.612.6
201812.412.5
201712.612.5
201612.412.7
201512.512.6
201412.912.1
201311.612.5
20121212.1
201112.512.3
201011.112.3
20091212.4
200812.212.3
200712.712.1
200612.312.3
200512.412.2
200412.312.2
200312.412.2
200212.612.2
200112.112.2
200012.112.2
199912.512
199812.212.1
199712.111.9
199611.311.8
199512.411.8
199412.211.9
199311.611.6
199211.711.7
199111.311.8
199012.612
198912.611.9
198811.911.8
198711.111.8
198610.811.5
198511.211.8
198411.611.6
198311.611.5
198211.911.6
198111.511.7
198011.311.7
197911.211.6
197811.511.7
197711.511.4
197611.611.5
197511.811.6
197411.611.7
197311.511.6
197211.311.5
197111.711.3
197011.411.5
196911.611.3
196811.411.4
196711.611.6
196611.911.3
196511.111.5
196411.411.4
196310.511.6
19621111.7
196112.211.5
196011.911.4
195912.411.6
195811.511.6
195711.911.5
195610.811.6
195511.311.6
195411.411.6
195311.611.5
195211.411.6
195111.611.5
195011.811.5
  • 12.3Projected
CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2026–2100
YearObserved, ERA5CMIP6 historical run, model median
2026–12.912.1–14.1
2027–12.812.3–13.7
2028–12.912.1–13.9
2029–12.912–14
2030–12.912–13.9
2031–12.912–13.8
2032–13.112.1–14.1
2033–12.912.1–14.2
2034–13.212.1–13.9
2035–1312–14
2036–13.112.4–14.1
2037–12.912.3–13.7
2038–12.912.2–14
2039–1312.1–13.8
2040–13.112.1–14.2
2041–1312.2–13.9
2042–12.812.4–14.2
2043–12.912–14.3
2044–13.212–14
2045–13.112.6–14
2046–1312.3–14
2047–13.412.5–14
2048–13.212.6–14.1
2049–13.212.3–14.8
2050–13.212.5–14.2
2051–13.212.1–14.5
2052–13.212.3–14.5
2053–13.412.3–14.6
2054–13.212.5–14.3
2055–13.312.3–14.6
2056–13.312.2–14.8
2057–13.312.5–14.6
2058–13.612.8–14.9
2059–13.512.3–14.5
2060–13.412.8–14.4
2061–13.612.8–14.6
2062–13.712.8–14.5
2063–13.512.7–14.4
2064–13.412.8–14.5
2065–13.412.5–14.9
2066–13.612.5–14.7
2067–13.612.7–14.7
2068–13.412.6–15
2069–13.812.7–15
2070–13.412.5–15.1
2071–13.412.6–15.1
2072–13.712.8–15.1
2073–13.613–14.7
2074–13.912.7–14.7
2075–13.312.2–14.6
2076–13.712.6–15
2077–13.512.6–15.1
2078–13.512.6–15.3
2079–13.412.6–15.4
2080–13.512.6–15.2
2081–13.712.6–14.9
2082–13.712.6–15.1
2083–13.712.6–14.8
2084–13.912.9–14.8
2085–1413–14.9
2086–13.913–15.4
2087–1413.1–15.6
2088–14.213–15.2
2089–14.312.6–15.3
2090–14.312.8–15.3
2091–1412.8–15.4
2092–13.813–15.4
2093–13.812.6–15
2094–13.712.6–15.2
2095–1412.6–15.6
2096–1412.9–15.4
2097–13.812.8–15.2
2098–1412.8–15.2
2099–14.112.7–15.4
2100–14.113.1–15.2

Good to know

  • The average air temperature near the ground, over the whole country and the whole year.
  • Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus, ECMWF) and CMIP6, via the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
  • The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
  • Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.
  • Ranks count the 233 countries with a value in 2025, highest first.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

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