Tropical nights in Libya

Tropical nights in Libya: 109.4 nights in 1950 and 138.1 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 138.1 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +28.7 nights
Projected, 2100: 172.3 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 172.3 nights in 2100, between 153.7 nights and 190.8 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 139.2 nights in 2011, the lowest 105.7 nights in 1965.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Libya
2014	138.1
2013	137.8
2012	138.4
2011	139.2
2010	136.9
2009	134.6
2008	137.9
2007	134.2
2006	134.3
2005	135.4
2004	134.1
2003	134.3
2002	133.8
2001	131.4
2000	128.8
1999	126.8
1998	126
1997	126.7
1996	124.7
1995	123.8
1994	122
1993	117.9
1992	118.6
1991	125.4
1990	123.4
1989	119.5
1988	116.9
1987	116.8
1986	123.6
1985	117.9
1984	113.4
1983	112.8
1982	114
1981	117
1980	118.8
1979	112
1978	116.9
1977	112.2
1976	116.5
1975	113.1
1974	112.4
1973	116.2
1972	114.6
1971	111.4
1970	112.2
1969	108.3
1968	111.9
1967	111.4
1966	109.5
1965	105.7
1964	108.6
1963	112.3
1962	111.9
1961	110.5
1960	116.6
1959	113.5
1958	113.6
1957	114.9
1956	113.3
1955	112.5
1954	110.9
1953	113.6
1952	111.6
1951	111.5
1950	109.4

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Libya
2015	140.5122.7–155
2016	140.8126.8–152.9
2017	146128.5–159.7
2018	140.6121.8–159.1
2019	144.3121.2–156.8
2020	143.7126.3–158.3
2021	144.7131.1–159
2022	146.2129.6–163.7
2023	144.7131.2–158.3
2024	148.8135.3–162.1
2025	148131.8–160.5
2026	148.9135.9–160.7
2027	146.2129.7–158.7
2028	146133.3–161.9
2029	148.6134.1–161.5
2030	148.3131.9–159.9
2031	149132.5–165.3
2032	151.7137.6–165
2033	152.7134.7–163.5
2034	152.1136.4–166.8
2035	153.3136.3–168.5
2036	148.9135.3–162.7
2037	150.2136.1–164.4
2038	153.9139.1–169.1
2039	154.2134.7–172.2
2040	155.4140.4–168.6
2041	154.4138.9–167.4
2042	158.8139–173.8
2043	156143.6–167.9
2044	153.3138.2–169.2
2045	157.6140–169.7
2046	157139.9–170.8
2047	157.1142.6–171.9
2048	156.8144.9–168.2
2049	156.4141.9–171.2
2050	160.2144.6–172.3
2051	156.9142.4–172.3
2052	160.6147.6–173.2
2053	160.4145.8–172.2
2054	160143.6–176.2
2055	161.7149–173.4
2056	157.7140.4–173.6
2057	158.9142.3–177.5
2058	161.7145.2–179.2
2059	165.2147.4–180.9
2060	162.5143.4–179.2
2061	162.8147.1–178.6
2062	163.6147.2–177.4
2063	158.9144–174.4
2064	164.6146.1–179
2065	164.6149.1–179
2066	162.6144.6–179.3
2067	168152–179.9
2068	167.1148–184.3
2069	167.1149.7–182.7
2070	164.8147.9–184.1
2071	166.9147.5–183.3
2072	171.2152.9–181.9
2073	165.5148.3–180.1
2074	163.1144.5–182
2075	164.5148.4–182.4
2076	169.6149.7–184.9
2077	171.2149.1–183.6
2078	171.6153.1–183.2
2079	168.4149.8–182.8
2080	169.4152.6–183
2081	166.3147.4–180.8
2082	168.9153.2–184.9
2083	166.9151.7–186.5
2084	172.9151.6–186.4
2085	168.7152.1–183.4
2086	173.7157.5–188.1
2087	167.7145–184.9
2088	169.8153–188.3
2089	169.4154–188.9
2090	169.3149.9–188.3
2091	172.9156.2–187.9
2092	172.2154.1–186
2093	171.8154.8–187.9
2094	172.8157.2–185.2
2095	170.8155.1–186.2
2096	170.1156.2–189.7
2097	169.4154.6–183.2
2098	169.8151.1–185.7
2099	169.3156.5–188.9
2100	172.3153.7–190.8

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Tropical nights in Libya

What the numbers say

Every year

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