Madagascar

Tropical nights in Madagascar

Tropical nights in Madagascar: 116.3 nights in 1950 and 138.3 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014
138.3 nights
Modelled
Since 1950
+22 nights
Projected, 2100
198.5 nights
CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)
Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

Tropical nights in MadagascarTropical nights in Madagascar: 116.3 nights in 1950 and 138.3 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 198.5 nights in 2100, between 173.3 nights and 227.7 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

  • The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 198.5 nights in 2100, between 173.3 nights and 227.7 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
  • The highest was 138.3 nights in 2012, the lowest 109.6 nights in 1964.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

YearMadagascar
2014138.3
2013138
2012138.3
2011136.8
2010134.2
2009133.5
2008132.3
2007133.1
2006131.6
2005130.3
2004133.5
2003131
2002131.8
2001131.7
2000127.4
1999128.4
1998128.6
1997125.3
1996121.8
1995123.3
1994121.8
1993116
1992116.6
1991124.9
1990126.2
1989124
1988123.8
1987122.8
1986123.8
1985120
1984118.6
1983116.5
1982121.8
1981122.1
1980120.3
1979120.7
1978119.3
1977119
1976117.4
1975116.5
1974119.5
1973119
1972117
1971116.3
1970117
1969116.3
1968113.1
1967113
1966114.1
1965112.2
1964109.6
1963109.7
1962115.3
1961118.5
1960118.2
1959119
1958118.7
1957117.6
1956115.5
1955116.6
1954115.9
1953116.4
1952117.4
1951116
1950116.3
CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100
YearMadagascar
2015142.8126.7–159.3
2016137.8122.2–156
2017143.1125.6–159.4
2018143.7125.9–160.3
2019143.4124.4–162.3
2020143.4125.2–159
2021145.4128.8–160.4
2022150.4133.4–165.2
2023149.7132.1–166
2024150.7131.4–167.9
2025149128.8–169.1
2026150.1127.4–169.9
2027151.8131.9–170.8
2028154.9137.7–173.1
2029155.7135.2–173.8
2030154.8136.4–171.3
2031158.1141.3–174.8
2032157.9136.2–178.4
2033158.9136.7–177.8
2034158.6140.6–179.6
2035161.1140.2–181.6
2036159.5139.4–177.1
2037165.8144.7–182.8
2038166.5149.3–183.9
2039164.1145.1–183.9
2040162.8144.5–184.8
2041165.8143.5–183.9
2042165.1144.3–188.4
2043165.6148.5–184.7
2044167.3145.8–187
2045166.9147.1–187.1
2046171.4149.6–193
2047171.7148.8–193.4
2048173.7151.7–193.6
2049172.2151.4–192.9
2050174.4150.5–193.6
2051175154.3–195.1
2052176153.8–196.7
2053176.6151.1–197.8
2054175.5152.8–199.2
2055179.2157.3–196.8
2056178.8156.5–199.7
2057177.7155.5–201
2058180.5158.9–202.4
2059181.8158.3–202.5
2060185.1159.5–207.8
2061180.6157.6–203.8
2062180.6157.1–205.6
2063185156.8–210.7
2064184.7159.1–205.7
2065183.8157.1–208.5
2066187.3159.6–211
2067184.9155.9–208.9
2068187.5161.7–211.1
2069187.5162–211.3
2070187.8160.4–213.6
2071190.7162.7–216.6
2072191.8168.2–215.8
2073191.4168.7–214.5
2074189.4162.6–217.7
2075189.3163.8–214.2
2076191.1164.3–214
2077191.9168.8–217.1
2078190.1166.5–219.3
2079190.1163.7–216.2
2080194.8167.7–219.4
2081191.7166.7–218.1
2082193.8169.2–216.7
2083194.6166.1–218.1
2084197.9170–219.7
2085197.8172.3–223.7
2086192.9169.6–220
2087195.2170.4–220.1
2088198.1165.1–225.5
2089196.3167.9–227.6
2090197.5172.4–228.1
2091199.2172.7–226.7
2092202.4170.7–226.6
2093202.1172.3–230.5
2094198.3168.6–224
2095200.7171.7–225.1
2096199.8173.6–226.3
2097201.2170–227.6
2098201.1170.7–227.2
2099198.3173.8–225.8
2100198.5173.3–227.7

Good to know

  • Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
  • Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
  • The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
  • Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

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