巴西与南非：热带夜

2014 年热带夜：巴西为 282 夜，南非为 27.1 夜（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年巴西的数值较高，高出 254.9 夜，是南非的 10 倍。

每年夜数 · CMIP6

巴西南非CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径）模型第 10–90 百分位

数据解读

自 1950 年以来，在两国都有数据的每一年，巴西的数值都更高。
根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年巴西为 317.3 夜，南非为 58.7 夜。

逐年数据

每年夜数 · CMIP6

年份	巴西	南非
2014	282	27.1
2013	282.5	28.3
2012	283.6	27.9
2011	281.8	26.1
2010	280.2	26
2009	279.2	25.8
2008	277.8	24.8
2007	275.9	24.7
2006	275.4	25.5
2005	275.8	25.3
2004	278.5	25.8
2003	276.7	25.1
2002	276.2	25
2001	277.7	24.5
2000	273.3	23.3
1999	271	23
1998	273.6	23.4
1997	270.9	22.5
1996	264.7	20.4
1995	263.8	19.3
1994	263.6	20
1993	258.3	18.1
1992	252.8	18.1
1991	269.7	22.3
1990	272.5	22.7
1989	267.1	22
1988	264.7	21.2
1987	265.9	21.9
1986	265.7	21
1985	260.6	18.9
1984	261.1	20
1983	255.9	19
1982	264.8	20.3
1981	265.3	20
1980	262	21.2
1979	261.2	19.9
1978	259.7	19.8
1977	261.8	19.2
1976	258.4	19.2
1975	252.4	18.8
1974	258.7	19.7
1973	261	19.6
1972	258.1	19
1971	256.5	19.1
1970	254.5	18.6
1969	255.1	18.7
1968	254.9	17.8
1967	250.3	17.5
1966	254.5	17.8
1965	250.8	17.2
1964	246.2	14.9
1963	241.9	16.5
1962	257.9	19.6
1961	258.2	19.7
1960	260.3	19.8
1959	255.7	18.5
1958	258.1	19.3
1957	256.6	19.4
1956	251.2	18
1955	257.2	19.5
1954	258	18.4
1953	255.2	18.4
1952	255.8	19.3
1951	256.3	18.9
1950	254.4	18.1

CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100

年份	巴西	南非
2015	284257.6–299.5	28.620–39.5
2016	281.5261.4–296.3	26.817.8–37.9
2017	284.1263.2–297.8	28.919.6–37.8
2018	283.4263.1–298.8	29.620.6–40.6
2019	283.7262.9–302.4	29.820.8–41.5
2020	286.3264.2–303.6	29.518.9–39.1
2021	287.9266.9–302.3	31.121.4–42.9
2022	289.6270.7–303.9	3223.7–43.1
2023	287.3270.5–303	31.922.9–41.8
2024	291.5268.2–304.6	3324–45.6
2025	289.6269.1–304.8	31.920.7–44.5
2026	289.7266.2–305.1	34.521.9–46.9
2027	289.5269.1–303.7	34.423–47.7
2028	291.2271.9–306	33.522.9–46
2029	295.5276.3–309.6	36.226.5–48.3
2030	292.2269.1–306.9	36.124.9–49
2031	295.3274–308.9	36.324.5–50.3
2032	296.8280.1–310.9	36.424.5–49.2
2033	295.4273.3–308.5	36.924.5–48.3
2034	294.3273.5–311.8	37.626.4–51.8
2035	295.2274.4–310.9	37.625.2–49.5
2036	295.1278.2–307.8	3826.5–50.5
2037	299.9283.7–311.3	39.928.2–53.4
2038	299.6283.5–312.1	41.528.4–54.2
2039	296.9279.9–311	39.227–52.9
2040	298.5279.4–311.9	38.125.6–55.6
2041	301.4282.2–314.1	40.227.4–54.3
2042	300.6277.8–314.7	4229–56.4
2043	298.2279.8–312.7	42.128.2–58.4
2044	300.3281.2–315.6	41.929.5–57.8
2045	299.9279.7–313.1	42.728.2–59
2046	302.8285.8–316.6	44.130–59.5
2047	303.3285–316.4	44.630.7–61.2
2048	304.4287.3–317.3	4531.9–61.5
2049	305.4288.4–318.5	45.632.3–61.4
2050	303.9283.9–316.2	46.931–63.6
2051	305.7287.5–317.5	47.532–65
2052	305.9290.6–318.8	48.332.7–64.3
2053	305.3285.9–317.5	45.733.7–62.1
2054	306.1288.4–319.3	4833.3–64.3
2055	306.4290.8–319.8	46.833–68.4
2056	306.7288.3–321.1	47.933.2–64.8
2057	306.4287.6–321.1	50.232.6–68.9
2058	309291–321.4	47.934–66.4
2059	310.4290.7–322.8	51.333.1–66.9
2060	311.6294.4–325.1	51.936–69.9
2061	307.5290.3–321.2	50.534.8–71.3
2062	309291.5–322.8	50.532.7–71
2063	310.8290.6–322.8	50.434.3–69.7
2064	309.6290.2–321.1	5134.1–67.7
2065	311.1291.6–323.1	50.433.6–70.2
2066	312.2294.2–324.2	5335.7–72.4
2067	310.9291.5–323.3	50.634.8–70.4
2068	311.5293–324.5	54.837.8–72.5
2069	310.6292.2–323.6	54.339.1–73.4
2070	312.7293–325.3	54.337.2–73.3
2071	311.5292.1–323.9	55.837.9–76.9
2072	313.3297.8–325.5	5639.4–78.6
2073	313.8298.6–327.2	60.443.4–80.3
2074	311.4292.4–323.5	57.439.1–75.3
2075	310.9291.5–324.5	56.137.7–76
2076	314.2294.4–327.7	58.538.4–75.3
2077	315.1295.6–326.8	57.341–80.5
2078	314.9296.3–327.1	5639.5–79
2079	313292.8–326.8	57.639.3–78
2080	311.9294.7–325.4	59.540.3–80.9
2081	313.5295.5–325.6	5841.5–79.6
2082	315296.8–327.1	58.839.7–77.7
2083	315.7295.3–328.7	60.839.1–82.9
2084	316.6298.5–327.9	62.540.4–82.9
2085	317.4299.3–329.8	60.741.3–87.6
2086	315.8294–328	60.542.1–83.3
2087	316.5297.9–328.5	57.941–82.9
2088	315.6297.3–328.8	64.243.4–85.3
2089	315296.6–327.9	61.541.3–81.2
2090	316298.9–330.3	61.641.5–86.8
2091	317298.1–330.6	63.341.6–86.3
2092	317.6298.7–330.7	63.144.9–84.8
2093	316.3297.5–328.6	62.443.2–86.1
2094	316.4300.2–327.5	63.145.6–87.4
2095	319299.8–330.7	65.342.6–91.7
2096	317.7299.5–330.8	6142.7–90.1
2097	316.9297.8–329	58.841.2–84.6
2098	318.6299.9–331.9	65.143.8–89.8
2099	318.1300–330.2	64.345–87
2100	317.3298.4–330.3	58.742–88.2

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须知

一年中气温始终高于 20 °C 的夜晚数，取全国平均。
来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。

各图层如何运作、数据从何而来，以及它们无法告诉你什么：历年各国数据

巴西与南非对比

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冲突

冲突死亡人数巴西：2022 年为 1,480 人死亡南非：2022 年为 0 人死亡