意大利与南非：热带夜

2014 年热带夜：意大利为 26.3 夜，南非为 27.1 夜（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年南非的数值较高，高出 0.8 夜，是意大利的 1.03 倍。

每年夜数 · CMIP6

意大利南非CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径）模型第 10–90 百分位

数据解读

自 2011 年超过意大利以来，南非的数值一直更高。
根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年意大利为 65.1 夜，南非为 58.7 夜。

逐年数据

每年夜数 · CMIP6

年份	意大利	南非
2014	26.3	27.1
2013	24.7	28.3
2012	24.8	27.9
2011	24.6	26.1
2010	27.1	26
2009	23.7	25.8
2008	24.1	24.8
2007	21.5	24.7
2006	24.6	25.5
2005	22.5	25.3
2004	24.5	25.8
2003	23.8	25.1
2002	20.6	25
2001	20.8	24.5
2000	21.7	23.3
1999	20.3	23
1998	18.9	23.4
1997	18.9	22.5
1996	18.9	20.4
1995	17.9	19.3
1994	17.4	20
1993	16.3	18.1
1992	15.1	18.1
1991	18	22.3
1990	18.2	22.7
1989	16.6	22
1988	15.5	21.2
1987	16	21.9
1986	15	21
1985	14.5	18.9
1984	15.7	20
1983	15.3	19
1982	14.1	20.3
1981	15.3	20
1980	15.9	21.2
1979	14.5	19.9
1978	16.5	19.8
1977	13.5	19.2
1976	13.8	19.2
1975	14	18.8
1974	14.8	19.7
1973	13.5	19.6
1972	13.7	19
1971	15.3	19.1
1970	14	18.6
1969	14.5	18.7
1968	13.8	17.8
1967	13.6	17.5
1966	13.2	17.8
1965	12.8	17.2
1964	13.2	14.9
1963	14.2	16.5
1962	15.5	19.6
1961	13.9	19.7
1960	14.9	19.8
1959	16.6	18.5
1958	14.4	19.3
1957	15.5	19.4
1956	16.7	18
1955	16.6	19.5
1954	15.7	18.4
1953	15.4	18.4
1952	16.6	19.3
1951	16	18.9
1950	15.3	18.1

CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100

年份	意大利	南非
2015	3021.7–40.4	28.620–39.5
2016	29.618–42.2	26.817.8–37.9
2017	31.820.2–43.7	28.919.6–37.8
2018	3122–44.3	29.620.6–40.6
2019	31.521.3–43.2	29.820.8–41.5
2020	31.619.7–44.3	29.518.9–39.1
2021	3420.8–46.9	31.121.4–42.9
2022	37.121.3–50.6	3223.7–43.1
2023	33.121.3–47.4	31.922.9–41.8
2024	35.521.6–48.4	3324–45.6
2025	37.720.5–51.1	31.920.7–44.5
2026	38.926.6–52.2	34.521.9–46.9
2027	34.322.4–49.7	34.423–47.7
2028	37.724.4–53.1	33.522.9–46
2029	37.824.9–55	36.226.5–48.3
2030	37.925.7–54.7	36.124.9–49
2031	37.223.8–51	36.324.5–50.3
2032	39.226.2–53.8	36.424.5–49.2
2033	40.426–50.3	36.924.5–48.3
2034	42.525.1–57.2	37.626.4–51.8
2035	42.728.9–58.3	37.625.2–49.5
2036	41.127.7–59.9	3826.5–50.5
2037	4328.1–54.8	39.928.2–53.4
2038	41.628.5–61.3	41.528.4–54.2
2039	4129.4–56.4	39.227–52.9
2040	42.428.1–59.1	38.125.6–55.6
2041	41.927.2–58.7	40.227.4–54.3
2042	43.529.6–59	4229–56.4
2043	4528.7–59.5	42.128.2–58.4
2044	44.929.4–59.9	41.929.5–57.8
2045	45.230.3–59.2	42.728.2–59
2046	4627.3–62.4	44.130–59.5
2047	49.132.4–63.6	44.630.7–61.2
2048	46.228.3–65.7	4531.9–61.5
2049	48.229.5–65.7	45.632.3–61.4
2050	49.536.4–64.4	46.931–63.6
2051	48.831.6–68.3	47.532–65
2052	50.330.9–68.1	48.332.7–64.3
2053	48.235.9–67	45.733.7–62.1
2054	49.435.3–66.1	4833.3–64.3
2055	52.233.7–67.7	46.833–68.4
2056	50.836.2–71.6	47.933.2–64.8
2057	50.232.8–65.6	50.232.6–68.9
2058	55.337.5–70.8	47.934–66.4
2059	51.934.5–74.1	51.333.1–66.9
2060	52.938.2–68.1	51.936–69.9
2061	54.338.3–69.8	50.534.8–71.3
2062	53.936.9–69	50.532.7–71
2063	56.437.6–72.1	50.434.3–69.7
2064	55.938.5–71.3	5134.1–67.7
2065	5537.3–73.3	50.433.6–70.2
2066	53.935.8–73.8	5335.7–72.4
2067	61.141.2–76.6	50.634.8–70.4
2068	56.241.7–73	54.837.8–72.5
2069	58.741.8–73	54.339.1–73.4
2070	55.738.9–74.4	54.337.2–73.3
2071	59.637.8–76.6	55.837.9–76.9
2072	59.643.5–74.6	5639.4–78.6
2073	56.939.4–71.6	60.443.4–80.3
2074	54.836.7–73.7	57.439.1–75.3
2075	56.941.8–75.4	56.137.7–76
2076	59.941.9–77.7	58.538.4–75.3
2077	57.437.9–74.1	57.341–80.5
2078	60.540.5–80.7	5639.5–79
2079	60.637.1–83.3	57.639.3–78
2080	59.743.1–78	59.540.3–80.9
2081	5943.7–78.9	5841.5–79.6
2082	63.945.5–80.2	58.839.7–77.7
2083	60.842–79.7	60.839.1–82.9
2084	62.547.3–82.1	62.540.4–82.9
2085	65.246.3–79	60.741.3–87.6
2086	64.445.6–80.1	60.542.1–83.3
2087	63.743.8–84	57.941–82.9
2088	67.247.4–84.4	64.243.4–85.3
2089	64.546–82.9	61.541.3–81.2
2090	65.842.8–80.5	61.641.5–86.8
2091	66.745.3–84.7	63.341.6–86.3
2092	64.838.5–82.3	63.144.9–84.8
2093	63.644.7–83	62.443.2–86.1
2094	62.445–82	63.145.6–87.4
2095	6643.6–83.5	65.342.6–91.7
2096	6542.9–85.8	6142.7–90.1
2097	65.844.9–84.4	58.841.2–84.6
2098	64.647.9–84.2	65.143.8–89.8
2099	67.742.2–81.9	64.345–87
2100	65.142.5–83.2	58.742–88.2

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须知

一年中气温始终高于 20 °C 的夜晚数，取全国平均。
来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。

各图层如何运作、数据从何而来，以及它们无法告诉你什么：历年各国数据

意大利与南非对比

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冲突

冲突死亡人数意大利：2022 年为 0 人死亡南非：2022 年为 0 人死亡