Italy vs South Africa: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 26.3 nights in Italy and 27.1 nights in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in South Africa, by 0.8 nights, or 1.03 times that in Italy.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

ItalySouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

South Africa has been higher since 2011, when it overtook Italy.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Italy at 65.1 nights and South Africa at 58.7 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Italy	South Africa
2014	26.3	27.1
2013	24.7	28.3
2012	24.8	27.9
2011	24.6	26.1
2010	27.1	26
2009	23.7	25.8
2008	24.1	24.8
2007	21.5	24.7
2006	24.6	25.5
2005	22.5	25.3
2004	24.5	25.8
2003	23.8	25.1
2002	20.6	25
2001	20.8	24.5
2000	21.7	23.3
1999	20.3	23
1998	18.9	23.4
1997	18.9	22.5
1996	18.9	20.4
1995	17.9	19.3
1994	17.4	20
1993	16.3	18.1
1992	15.1	18.1
1991	18	22.3
1990	18.2	22.7
1989	16.6	22
1988	15.5	21.2
1987	16	21.9
1986	15	21
1985	14.5	18.9
1984	15.7	20
1983	15.3	19
1982	14.1	20.3
1981	15.3	20
1980	15.9	21.2
1979	14.5	19.9
1978	16.5	19.8
1977	13.5	19.2
1976	13.8	19.2
1975	14	18.8
1974	14.8	19.7
1973	13.5	19.6
1972	13.7	19
1971	15.3	19.1
1970	14	18.6
1969	14.5	18.7
1968	13.8	17.8
1967	13.6	17.5
1966	13.2	17.8
1965	12.8	17.2
1964	13.2	14.9
1963	14.2	16.5
1962	15.5	19.6
1961	13.9	19.7
1960	14.9	19.8
1959	16.6	18.5
1958	14.4	19.3
1957	15.5	19.4
1956	16.7	18
1955	16.6	19.5
1954	15.7	18.4
1953	15.4	18.4
1952	16.6	19.3
1951	16	18.9
1950	15.3	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Italy	South Africa
2015	3021.7–40.4	28.620–39.5
2016	29.618–42.2	26.817.8–37.9
2017	31.820.2–43.7	28.919.6–37.8
2018	3122–44.3	29.620.6–40.6
2019	31.521.3–43.2	29.820.8–41.5
2020	31.619.7–44.3	29.518.9–39.1
2021	3420.8–46.9	31.121.4–42.9
2022	37.121.3–50.6	3223.7–43.1
2023	33.121.3–47.4	31.922.9–41.8
2024	35.521.6–48.4	3324–45.6
2025	37.720.5–51.1	31.920.7–44.5
2026	38.926.6–52.2	34.521.9–46.9
2027	34.322.4–49.7	34.423–47.7
2028	37.724.4–53.1	33.522.9–46
2029	37.824.9–55	36.226.5–48.3
2030	37.925.7–54.7	36.124.9–49
2031	37.223.8–51	36.324.5–50.3
2032	39.226.2–53.8	36.424.5–49.2
2033	40.426–50.3	36.924.5–48.3
2034	42.525.1–57.2	37.626.4–51.8
2035	42.728.9–58.3	37.625.2–49.5
2036	41.127.7–59.9	3826.5–50.5
2037	4328.1–54.8	39.928.2–53.4
2038	41.628.5–61.3	41.528.4–54.2
2039	4129.4–56.4	39.227–52.9
2040	42.428.1–59.1	38.125.6–55.6
2041	41.927.2–58.7	40.227.4–54.3
2042	43.529.6–59	4229–56.4
2043	4528.7–59.5	42.128.2–58.4
2044	44.929.4–59.9	41.929.5–57.8
2045	45.230.3–59.2	42.728.2–59
2046	4627.3–62.4	44.130–59.5
2047	49.132.4–63.6	44.630.7–61.2
2048	46.228.3–65.7	4531.9–61.5
2049	48.229.5–65.7	45.632.3–61.4
2050	49.536.4–64.4	46.931–63.6
2051	48.831.6–68.3	47.532–65
2052	50.330.9–68.1	48.332.7–64.3
2053	48.235.9–67	45.733.7–62.1
2054	49.435.3–66.1	4833.3–64.3
2055	52.233.7–67.7	46.833–68.4
2056	50.836.2–71.6	47.933.2–64.8
2057	50.232.8–65.6	50.232.6–68.9
2058	55.337.5–70.8	47.934–66.4
2059	51.934.5–74.1	51.333.1–66.9
2060	52.938.2–68.1	51.936–69.9
2061	54.338.3–69.8	50.534.8–71.3
2062	53.936.9–69	50.532.7–71
2063	56.437.6–72.1	50.434.3–69.7
2064	55.938.5–71.3	5134.1–67.7
2065	5537.3–73.3	50.433.6–70.2
2066	53.935.8–73.8	5335.7–72.4
2067	61.141.2–76.6	50.634.8–70.4
2068	56.241.7–73	54.837.8–72.5
2069	58.741.8–73	54.339.1–73.4
2070	55.738.9–74.4	54.337.2–73.3
2071	59.637.8–76.6	55.837.9–76.9
2072	59.643.5–74.6	5639.4–78.6
2073	56.939.4–71.6	60.443.4–80.3
2074	54.836.7–73.7	57.439.1–75.3
2075	56.941.8–75.4	56.137.7–76
2076	59.941.9–77.7	58.538.4–75.3
2077	57.437.9–74.1	57.341–80.5
2078	60.540.5–80.7	5639.5–79
2079	60.637.1–83.3	57.639.3–78
2080	59.743.1–78	59.540.3–80.9
2081	5943.7–78.9	5841.5–79.6
2082	63.945.5–80.2	58.839.7–77.7
2083	60.842–79.7	60.839.1–82.9
2084	62.547.3–82.1	62.540.4–82.9
2085	65.246.3–79	60.741.3–87.6
2086	64.445.6–80.1	60.542.1–83.3
2087	63.743.8–84	57.941–82.9
2088	67.247.4–84.4	64.243.4–85.3
2089	64.546–82.9	61.541.3–81.2
2090	65.842.8–80.5	61.641.5–86.8
2091	66.745.3–84.7	63.341.6–86.3
2092	64.838.5–82.3	63.144.9–84.8
2093	63.644.7–83	62.443.2–86.1
2094	62.445–82	63.145.6–87.4
2095	6643.6–83.5	65.342.6–91.7
2096	6542.9–85.8	6142.7–90.1
2097	65.844.9–84.4	58.841.2–84.6
2098	64.647.9–84.2	65.143.8–89.8
2099	67.742.2–81.9	64.345–87
2100	65.142.5–83.2	58.742–88.2

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Italy vs South Africa: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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