肯尼亚与南非：热带夜

2014 年热带夜：肯尼亚为 245.6 夜，南非为 27.1 夜（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年肯尼亚的数值较高，高出 218.5 夜，是南非的 9.06 倍。

每年夜数 · CMIP6

肯尼亚南非CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径）模型第 10–90 百分位

数据解读

自 1950 年以来，在两国都有数据的每一年，肯尼亚的数值都更高。
根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年肯尼亚为 277 夜，南非为 58.7 夜。

逐年数据

每年夜数 · CMIP6

年份	肯尼亚	南非
2014	245.6	27.1
2013	245.4	28.3
2012	244.7	27.9
2011	245	26.1
2010	243.8	26
2009	242.3	25.8
2008	240.3	24.8
2007	240.9	24.7
2006	241.5	25.5
2005	241.2	25.3
2004	241.8	25.8
2003	240.8	25.1
2002	240.7	25
2001	242	24.5
2000	239.5	23.3
1999	237.8	23
1998	239.2	23.4
1997	236.9	22.5
1996	234.2	20.4
1995	232.9	19.3
1994	231.9	20
1993	227.4	18.1
1992	224.8	18.1
1991	233.8	22.3
1990	236.4	22.7
1989	234.5	22
1988	233.1	21.2
1987	232.6	21.9
1986	233	21
1985	228.7	18.9
1984	230.2	20
1983	226.7	19
1982	230.6	20.3
1981	232.9	20
1980	231.3	21.2
1979	229.6	19.9
1978	228.7	19.8
1977	229.9	19.2
1976	227.8	19.2
1975	225.9	18.8
1974	230.5	19.7
1973	230.4	19.6
1972	228.7	19
1971	226	19.1
1970	226.3	18.6
1969	225.9	18.7
1968	222.9	17.8
1967	224	17.5
1966	225.2	17.8
1965	224.2	17.2
1964	221.8	14.9
1963	220.2	16.5
1962	227.2	19.6
1961	228.3	19.7
1960	228.8	19.8
1959	228.3	18.5
1958	229.1	19.3
1957	228	19.4
1956	225.5	18
1955	228.7	19.5
1954	227.4	18.4
1953	227.6	18.4
1952	228.5	19.3
1951	228.3	18.9
1950	226.3	18.1

CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100

年份	肯尼亚	南非
2015	246.9232.3–256.1	28.620–39.5
2016	244.9230.1–255	26.817.8–37.9
2017	248.1233.1–257.7	28.919.6–37.8
2018	248.7237–257.4	29.620.6–40.6
2019	247.1234.8–256.7	29.820.8–41.5
2020	248.6233.2–259.2	29.518.9–39.1
2021	249.5236.3–258.1	31.121.4–42.9
2022	251.5239.7–259.5	3223.7–43.1
2023	251.8239–260.8	31.922.9–41.8
2024	254.2239.1–263	3324–45.6
2025	251.5238.1–261.8	31.920.7–44.5
2026	252.2237.2–263.3	34.521.9–46.9
2027	252.8238.4–263.8	34.423–47.7
2028	254.9241.9–264.2	33.522.9–46
2029	256243.4–264.6	36.226.5–48.3
2030	253.6240.6–263.1	36.124.9–49
2031	256244.7–264.4	36.324.5–50.3
2032	257243.8–267.1	36.424.5–49.2
2033	256241.8–265.9	36.924.5–48.3
2034	256.2241.2–267.9	37.626.4–51.8
2035	256.7243.3–266.7	37.625.2–49.5
2036	256.2242.4–266.7	3826.5–50.5
2037	258.7245.9–268.4	39.928.2–53.4
2038	260.3244.5–268.9	41.528.4–54.2
2039	259244.4–268	39.227–52.9
2040	258.3246.2–269.8	38.125.6–55.6
2041	260.7244.8–271.2	40.227.4–54.3
2042	260.3246.5–272.7	4229–56.4
2043	259246.6–270.5	42.128.2–58.4
2044	261.2248.8–270.9	41.929.5–57.8
2045	261.8248.7–272.9	42.728.2–59
2046	264.8249.6–275.3	44.130–59.5
2047	264.4249.8–275.3	44.630.7–61.2
2048	264.2252.3–274.9	4531.9–61.5
2049	265.2252.8–275.6	45.632.3–61.4
2050	263.9249.8–275.1	46.931–63.6
2051	265.4252.1–275.1	47.532–65
2052	266.3252.6–276.2	48.332.7–64.3
2053	265.2251–275.4	45.733.7–62.1
2054	265.2250.2–277.2	4833.3–64.3
2055	266.8251.6–277.6	46.833–68.4
2056	266.2251.2–277.8	47.933.2–64.8
2057	266.8253–278	50.232.6–68.9
2058	266.7251.5–277.9	47.934–66.4
2059	269.8254.7–280.5	51.333.1–66.9
2060	271.1253.9–280.7	51.936–69.9
2061	267.5253.9–281.7	50.534.8–71.3
2062	268.1254–281.2	50.532.7–71
2063	268.9255–280.1	50.434.3–69.7
2064	270254.1–279.8	5134.1–67.7
2065	269.4255.8–282.3	50.433.6–70.2
2066	270.6258.1–281	5335.7–72.4
2067	270.7256.1–283	50.634.8–70.4
2068	270.2256–283	54.837.8–72.5
2069	269.8256.1–283.3	54.339.1–73.4
2070	270.1255.8–282.6	54.337.2–73.3
2071	271.9257.9–284.4	55.837.9–76.9
2072	273.5260.3–283.8	5639.4–78.6
2073	273.1259.9–285.4	60.443.4–80.3
2074	271.9257.5–285.4	57.439.1–75.3
2075	271.1256.5–284.7	56.137.7–76
2076	274.1258.6–285.8	58.538.4–75.3
2077	273.4259–286.6	57.341–80.5
2078	273.1260–284.4	5639.5–79
2079	273.3258.7–286.6	57.639.3–78
2080	275.5259.4–286.9	59.540.3–80.9
2081	274.7259.8–285.6	5841.5–79.6
2082	274.8261.3–286.4	58.839.7–77.7
2083	274259.6–289.3	60.839.1–82.9
2084	276.8259–288.8	62.540.4–82.9
2085	276.2261.5–289.1	60.741.3–87.6
2086	275.1260–289.1	60.542.1–83.3
2087	276.2260.3–288.5	57.941–82.9
2088	276.8261.6–289.7	64.243.4–85.3
2089	275.9260.3–288.8	61.541.3–81.2
2090	275.3260.5–290.5	61.641.5–86.8
2091	277.7260.4–290.9	63.341.6–86.3
2092	276.2261.2–290.7	63.144.9–84.8
2093	276.9262–290.1	62.443.2–86.1
2094	277262.8–288.9	63.145.6–87.4
2095	278.4262.3–290.4	65.342.6–91.7
2096	277.6260.5–292	6142.7–90.1
2097	277261–290.2	58.841.2–84.6
2098	277.6262.3–291.5	65.143.8–89.8
2099	277.9260.8–292.4	64.345–87
2100	277261.8–290.4	58.742–88.2

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须知

一年中气温始终高于 20 °C 的夜晚数，取全国平均。
来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。

各图层如何运作、数据从何而来，以及它们无法告诉你什么：历年各国数据

肯尼亚与南非对比

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冲突

冲突死亡人数肯尼亚：2022 年为 81 人死亡南非：2022 年为 0 人死亡