Kenya vs South Africa: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 245.6 nights in Kenya and 27.1 nights in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Kenya, by 218.5 nights, or 9.06 times that in South Africa.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

KenyaSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Kenya has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Kenya at 277 nights and South Africa at 58.7 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Kenya	South Africa
2014	245.6	27.1
2013	245.4	28.3
2012	244.7	27.9
2011	245	26.1
2010	243.8	26
2009	242.3	25.8
2008	240.3	24.8
2007	240.9	24.7
2006	241.5	25.5
2005	241.2	25.3
2004	241.8	25.8
2003	240.8	25.1
2002	240.7	25
2001	242	24.5
2000	239.5	23.3
1999	237.8	23
1998	239.2	23.4
1997	236.9	22.5
1996	234.2	20.4
1995	232.9	19.3
1994	231.9	20
1993	227.4	18.1
1992	224.8	18.1
1991	233.8	22.3
1990	236.4	22.7
1989	234.5	22
1988	233.1	21.2
1987	232.6	21.9
1986	233	21
1985	228.7	18.9
1984	230.2	20
1983	226.7	19
1982	230.6	20.3
1981	232.9	20
1980	231.3	21.2
1979	229.6	19.9
1978	228.7	19.8
1977	229.9	19.2
1976	227.8	19.2
1975	225.9	18.8
1974	230.5	19.7
1973	230.4	19.6
1972	228.7	19
1971	226	19.1
1970	226.3	18.6
1969	225.9	18.7
1968	222.9	17.8
1967	224	17.5
1966	225.2	17.8
1965	224.2	17.2
1964	221.8	14.9
1963	220.2	16.5
1962	227.2	19.6
1961	228.3	19.7
1960	228.8	19.8
1959	228.3	18.5
1958	229.1	19.3
1957	228	19.4
1956	225.5	18
1955	228.7	19.5
1954	227.4	18.4
1953	227.6	18.4
1952	228.5	19.3
1951	228.3	18.9
1950	226.3	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Kenya	South Africa
2015	246.9232.3–256.1	28.620–39.5
2016	244.9230.1–255	26.817.8–37.9
2017	248.1233.1–257.7	28.919.6–37.8
2018	248.7237–257.4	29.620.6–40.6
2019	247.1234.8–256.7	29.820.8–41.5
2020	248.6233.2–259.2	29.518.9–39.1
2021	249.5236.3–258.1	31.121.4–42.9
2022	251.5239.7–259.5	3223.7–43.1
2023	251.8239–260.8	31.922.9–41.8
2024	254.2239.1–263	3324–45.6
2025	251.5238.1–261.8	31.920.7–44.5
2026	252.2237.2–263.3	34.521.9–46.9
2027	252.8238.4–263.8	34.423–47.7
2028	254.9241.9–264.2	33.522.9–46
2029	256243.4–264.6	36.226.5–48.3
2030	253.6240.6–263.1	36.124.9–49
2031	256244.7–264.4	36.324.5–50.3
2032	257243.8–267.1	36.424.5–49.2
2033	256241.8–265.9	36.924.5–48.3
2034	256.2241.2–267.9	37.626.4–51.8
2035	256.7243.3–266.7	37.625.2–49.5
2036	256.2242.4–266.7	3826.5–50.5
2037	258.7245.9–268.4	39.928.2–53.4
2038	260.3244.5–268.9	41.528.4–54.2
2039	259244.4–268	39.227–52.9
2040	258.3246.2–269.8	38.125.6–55.6
2041	260.7244.8–271.2	40.227.4–54.3
2042	260.3246.5–272.7	4229–56.4
2043	259246.6–270.5	42.128.2–58.4
2044	261.2248.8–270.9	41.929.5–57.8
2045	261.8248.7–272.9	42.728.2–59
2046	264.8249.6–275.3	44.130–59.5
2047	264.4249.8–275.3	44.630.7–61.2
2048	264.2252.3–274.9	4531.9–61.5
2049	265.2252.8–275.6	45.632.3–61.4
2050	263.9249.8–275.1	46.931–63.6
2051	265.4252.1–275.1	47.532–65
2052	266.3252.6–276.2	48.332.7–64.3
2053	265.2251–275.4	45.733.7–62.1
2054	265.2250.2–277.2	4833.3–64.3
2055	266.8251.6–277.6	46.833–68.4
2056	266.2251.2–277.8	47.933.2–64.8
2057	266.8253–278	50.232.6–68.9
2058	266.7251.5–277.9	47.934–66.4
2059	269.8254.7–280.5	51.333.1–66.9
2060	271.1253.9–280.7	51.936–69.9
2061	267.5253.9–281.7	50.534.8–71.3
2062	268.1254–281.2	50.532.7–71
2063	268.9255–280.1	50.434.3–69.7
2064	270254.1–279.8	5134.1–67.7
2065	269.4255.8–282.3	50.433.6–70.2
2066	270.6258.1–281	5335.7–72.4
2067	270.7256.1–283	50.634.8–70.4
2068	270.2256–283	54.837.8–72.5
2069	269.8256.1–283.3	54.339.1–73.4
2070	270.1255.8–282.6	54.337.2–73.3
2071	271.9257.9–284.4	55.837.9–76.9
2072	273.5260.3–283.8	5639.4–78.6
2073	273.1259.9–285.4	60.443.4–80.3
2074	271.9257.5–285.4	57.439.1–75.3
2075	271.1256.5–284.7	56.137.7–76
2076	274.1258.6–285.8	58.538.4–75.3
2077	273.4259–286.6	57.341–80.5
2078	273.1260–284.4	5639.5–79
2079	273.3258.7–286.6	57.639.3–78
2080	275.5259.4–286.9	59.540.3–80.9
2081	274.7259.8–285.6	5841.5–79.6
2082	274.8261.3–286.4	58.839.7–77.7
2083	274259.6–289.3	60.839.1–82.9
2084	276.8259–288.8	62.540.4–82.9
2085	276.2261.5–289.1	60.741.3–87.6
2086	275.1260–289.1	60.542.1–83.3
2087	276.2260.3–288.5	57.941–82.9
2088	276.8261.6–289.7	64.243.4–85.3
2089	275.9260.3–288.8	61.541.3–81.2
2090	275.3260.5–290.5	61.641.5–86.8
2091	277.7260.4–290.9	63.341.6–86.3
2092	276.2261.2–290.7	63.144.9–84.8
2093	276.9262–290.1	62.443.2–86.1
2094	277262.8–288.9	63.145.6–87.4
2095	278.4262.3–290.4	65.342.6–91.7
2096	277.6260.5–292	6142.7–90.1
2097	277261–290.2	58.841.2–84.6
2098	277.6262.3–291.5	65.143.8–89.8
2099	277.9260.8–292.4	64.345–87
2100	277261.8–290.4	58.742–88.2

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Kenya vs South Africa: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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Kenya vs South Africa

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