Kenya vs South Africa: Days above 35 °C

Days above 35 °C in 2014: 48.1 days in Kenya and 13.2 days in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Kenya, by 35 days, or 3.65 times that in South Africa.

Watch it change on the map

days a year · CMIP6

KenyaSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Kenya has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Kenya at 103.7 days and South Africa at 40 days in 2100.

Every year

days a year · CMIP6

Year	Kenya	South Africa
2014	48.1	13.2
2013	46.4	15.2
2012	45.5	14.3
2011	46.4	11.7
2010	45.5	12.5
2009	40.9	13.2
2008	40.8	12.3
2007	39.2	12
2006	42	11.9
2005	42.9	13.3
2004	41.8	13.9
2003	41	12.6
2002	42.7	12.6
2001	43.4	11.1
2000	39.6	11.8
1999	40.9	11
1998	39.7	12.1
1997	38.8	11.3
1996	35.3	9.4
1995	34.3	8.3
1994	32.9	8.5
1993	28.5	7.8
1992	28.2	7.1
1991	35.1	11.1
1990	34.1	10.1
1989	34.5	11.5
1988	33.9	9.4
1987	35.9	11.5
1986	35.5	10.2
1985	31.2	8.7
1984	31	8.7
1983	30.2	8.6
1982	33.9	10.5
1981	34.6	9.7
1980	36.4	10.3
1979	34.4	9.4
1978	31.8	9.5
1977	30.5	9.3
1976	28.6	9
1975	29.7	9.3
1974	30.4	8.8
1973	29.1	9.5
1972	28.4	8.4
1971	28.1	8.7
1970	27	8.2
1969	29	8.9
1968	25.7	8.4
1967	26.9	6.9
1966	25.8	7.8
1965	24.4	7.9
1964	20.8	6.4
1963	25.7	7
1962	28.8	8.9
1961	30.9	10.5
1960	29.5	9.7
1959	30.4	8.9
1958	28	9.3
1957	30.7	10.3
1956	28.9	7.9
1955	30.2	10.3
1954	30	9.1
1953	31	7.8
1952	29.8	9
1951	30.1	8.4
1950	30.8	8.7

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Kenya	South Africa
2015	50.131.1–66.1	14.76.8–24
2016	49.230.5–67.3	13.46.3–22.2
2017	50.228.4–68.7	15.27.7–24.6
2018	5033.4–67.3	179.7–28
2019	49.431.2–67.4	14.67.1–24.5
2020	53.533.4–75.7	15.77.4–23.5
2021	52.434.3–69.5	17.99.4–27
2022	51.825–70.5	189.8–29
2023	55.535.3–80	18.69.9–27.1
2024	60.738.5–78.7	17.89.8–28
2025	55.236.8–74.4	16.57.5–29.6
2026	55.435.2–86.2	20.19.3–29.4
2027	5634.2–77.5	19.910.5–32.8
2028	56.731.5–80.6	19.110.6–33.2
2029	59.535.1–79.7	21.412.9–33.6
2030	57.940.5–79.9	21.19.6–33.9
2031	64.244.3–83.9	20.79.9–35.4
2032	58.839.6–81.3	2110.9–34.8
2033	63.639.2–87.1	22.612.2–34.2
2034	62.339.2–84.6	24.615–35.1
2035	61.636.8–84.1	20.911.7–31.3
2036	59.840.3–84.7	21.111.9–32.2
2037	63.740.4–91.7	23.412.6–35.2
2038	63.235.1–89.5	26.216–36.7
2039	65.540.6–88.4	22.611.4–35.9
2040	64.144.3–84.7	21.510.9–35.4
2041	69.847.4–98.8	23.213.2–35.8
2042	71.147–95.3	25.214.3–39.6
2043	66.640.7–91.1	25.613.4–39.9
2044	69.243–91.5	26.113.1–41.6
2045	7049.2–100.3	26.813.1–40.3
2046	76.643.2–107.2	25.914.5–40.8
2047	74.249.2–103.8	26.713.7–41.4
2048	72.847.4–102.8	29.215.6–45.4
2049	78.548.6–107.8	29.117.3–44.7
2050	7250–107.2	29.815.7–48.6
2051	79.352.5–111	27.913.6–45.2
2052	79.550.7–104.4	31.918.3–46.8
2053	72.944.3–104.5	28.318.6–43.2
2054	73.142.1–99.6	30.717.3–50.1
2055	80.450.6–105.6	2917.8–48
2056	76.247–111.2	29.916–45.3
2057	81.352.9–109.1	3117.4–50.1
2058	78.950–112.4	31.115.7–46
2059	83.351.3–115.7	3216.1–49.9
2060	85.749.3–116.5	33.419.8–49.7
2061	85.354.7–115.1	32.718.1–51.1
2062	85.355.1–116.5	31.317.7–52.6
2063	84.254.2–110.1	32.317.4–50.7
2064	87.448.2–113.7	31.817.7–47.6
2065	86.855.1–123.7	31.716.2–50.7
2066	83.857–115	34.318.4–55.3
2067	8955.6–119.5	32.617.2–52.4
2068	87.751.4–117.1	33.819.2–54.3
2069	8653.8–118.3	34.621.3–52.4
2070	86.150.8–121	32.819.3–51.1
2071	91.757.9–123.6	35.320.8–55.8
2072	91.461.3–123.1	37.820.3–54.6
2073	91.458.5–127.3	4425.6–62.1
2074	87.855.2–124.3	38.320.7–55.8
2075	89.853.7–127.4	34.218.7–53.1
2076	97.664.7–134.6	38.822.9–57.5
2077	97.755.7–131.4	39.124.2–60.3
2078	90.260.9–124.7	35.521.6–53.4
2079	9463.2–125.8	40.522.9–59.7
2080	96.157.8–132.4	40.523.4–59
2081	99.766.8–136.7	38.523.8–59.9
2082	99.458.5–131.7	38.622.5–58.2
2083	100.263.9–137.5	38.518.7–62.9
2084	9967.9–133.8	39.720.6–58.4
2085	99.259.2–137.4	4021.5–65.8
2086	104.457.4–142.5	40.823–63.7
2087	99.762.4–134.4	38.324.6–58.6
2088	98.761–135.2	42.222.6–66.3
2089	97.966–126.9	41.624.2–59.1
2090	101.468.5–136	42.326.1–66.4
2091	104.465.5–141.4	43.324.2–63.6
2092	99.759.8–137.8	43.928–61.6
2093	105.971.9–140.7	37.521.3–63.4
2094	107.369.1–137.3	41.325.4–65.9
2095	106.367.5–142.4	43.522.9–70.2
2096	105.461.5–142.2	41.224.1–66.8
2097	105.161.4–139.2	37.723.7–60.9
2098	104.861.9–140.8	46.425.1–71.4
2099	103.362.5–145.4	42.525.1–64.8
2100	103.757.3–139.4	4022.2–64.5

Each country on its own

Good to know

Days in a year whose highest temperature passes 35 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Kenya vs South Africa: Days above 35 °C

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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Kenya vs South Africa

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