莫桑比克与南非：热带夜

2014 年热带夜：莫桑比克为 186.3 夜，南非为 27.1 夜（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年莫桑比克的数值较高，高出 159.2 夜，是南非的 6.87 倍。

每年夜数 · CMIP6

莫桑比克南非CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径）模型第 10–90 百分位

数据解读

自 1950 年以来，在两国都有数据的每一年，莫桑比克的数值都更高。
根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年莫桑比克为 254.4 夜，南非为 58.7 夜。

逐年数据

每年夜数 · CMIP6

年份	莫桑比克	南非
2014	186.3	27.1
2013	186.9	28.3
2012	185.2	27.9
2011	184.1	26.1
2010	182.2	26
2009	178.2	25.8
2008	176.8	24.8
2007	178.9	24.7
2006	177.4	25.5
2005	176.9	25.3
2004	181	25.8
2003	180	25.1
2002	177.1	25
2001	180.6	24.5
2000	173.6	23.3
1999	171.5	23
1998	174.1	23.4
1997	169.9	22.5
1996	164.7	20.4
1995	165.8	19.3
1994	163.1	20
1993	155.5	18.1
1992	156	18.1
1991	167.5	22.3
1990	170.2	22.7
1989	164	22
1988	166.4	21.2
1987	166	21.9
1986	166.6	21
1985	159.3	18.9
1984	161.1	20
1983	159.7	19
1982	160.6	20.3
1981	164.5	20
1980	161.9	21.2
1979	162.2	19.9
1978	160.2	19.8
1977	160.2	19.2
1976	157.4	19.2
1975	157.7	18.8
1974	159.1	19.7
1973	160.4	19.6
1972	157.6	19
1971	155.6	19.1
1970	159.7	18.6
1969	157.8	18.7
1968	153	17.8
1967	152.8	17.5
1966	152.5	17.8
1965	153.1	17.2
1964	145.9	14.9
1963	146.8	16.5
1962	158.5	19.6
1961	158.8	19.7
1960	160.6	19.8
1959	159.7	18.5
1958	159.5	19.3
1957	156.9	19.4
1956	153.4	18
1955	159.6	19.5
1954	155.4	18.4
1953	156.8	18.4
1952	156.6	19.3
1951	157.4	18.9
1950	156.3	18.1

CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100

年份	莫桑比克	南非
2015	191170.1–212.1	28.620–39.5
2016	187.6168.6–208.2	26.817.8–37.9
2017	190.1169.4–210.1	28.919.6–37.8
2018	189.8163.6–212.8	29.620.6–40.6
2019	189.7171.9–208.8	29.820.8–41.5
2020	191.3169–213.8	29.518.9–39.1
2021	193.1172.7–212.9	31.121.4–42.9
2022	199.9176.3–216.7	3223.7–43.1
2023	196.8176.4–217.3	31.922.9–41.8
2024	199.7173.4–222.8	3324–45.6
2025	195.7173–219.1	31.920.7–44.5
2026	197.7172.6–219.3	34.521.9–46.9
2027	199.9177.9–221.8	34.423–47.7
2028	202.5181.1–221.1	33.522.9–46
2029	207.6187.3–227.3	36.226.5–48.3
2030	203.6183.2–223.8	36.124.9–49
2031	207.3188.7–225	36.324.5–50.3
2032	207.4186.7–230.9	36.424.5–49.2
2033	206.1180.7–226.1	36.924.5–48.3
2034	206.3181.3–227.7	37.626.4–51.8
2035	208.2184.1–233.6	37.625.2–49.5
2036	208.3183.8–226.4	3826.5–50.5
2037	213.7191.8–234.3	39.928.2–53.4
2038	218.4195.7–240.9	41.528.4–54.2
2039	212.6192.3–233.5	39.227–52.9
2040	212.7189–233.9	38.125.6–55.6
2041	213.1187.1–238	40.227.4–54.3
2042	214.9190.4–241.3	4229–56.4
2043	216196.2–238.9	42.128.2–58.4
2044	220.2196.1–242.1	41.929.5–57.8
2045	217.2198.6–237.6	42.728.2–59
2046	224.4200.5–247.6	44.130–59.5
2047	224.5201.3–246.3	44.630.7–61.2
2048	225.7205–247.5	4531.9–61.5
2049	226.4199.2–247.8	45.632.3–61.4
2050	225.5198.1–246.6	46.931–63.6
2051	227.5206.2–248.7	47.532–65
2052	230.5208.6–255.2	48.332.7–64.3
2053	226.3200.4–250	45.733.7–62.1
2054	227.8203.9–256.1	4833.3–64.3
2055	231.5208.3–254.4	46.833–68.4
2056	227.8204.6–253.1	47.933.2–64.8
2057	227.6205.7–252.2	50.232.6–68.9
2058	230.2208.3–251.8	47.934–66.4
2059	235.5212.5–261.4	51.333.1–66.9
2060	237.5208.9–257.9	51.936–69.9
2061	232.1204.8–256.1	50.534.8–71.3
2062	233.2208.6–257.9	50.532.7–71
2063	233.3207.3–261.6	50.434.3–69.7
2064	234.6209.3–255.8	5134.1–67.7
2065	236208.7–261	50.433.6–70.2
2066	239.4213.6–261.8	5335.7–72.4
2067	235.5205.9–259.4	50.634.8–70.4
2068	237.7211–264.3	54.837.8–72.5
2069	241.1212.2–263.4	54.339.1–73.4
2070	240.7212.1–266	54.337.2–73.3
2071	244.1214.3–272.8	55.837.9–76.9
2072	244.7215.8–267.8	5639.4–78.6
2073	246214.2–267.6	60.443.4–80.3
2074	242.2219.9–271.1	57.439.1–75.3
2075	244.4215.6–267.9	56.137.7–76
2076	240.8211–264.8	58.538.4–75.3
2077	241.4214.7–272.4	57.341–80.5
2078	245.4220.8–271.1	5639.5–79
2079	244.1214.3–276.4	57.639.3–78
2080	246.1221–273.6	59.540.3–80.9
2081	245.6214.5–268.1	5841.5–79.6
2082	246.9220.6–268.3	58.839.7–77.7
2083	247.3217.4–276.4	60.839.1–82.9
2084	248.5223.3–270.9	62.540.4–82.9
2085	253.4221.5–277.6	60.741.3–87.6
2086	242.9216.4–272.3	60.542.1–83.3
2087	247.4222.8–271.3	57.941–82.9
2088	253221.1–274.9	64.243.4–85.3
2089	251.6221.9–277.3	61.541.3–81.2
2090	249.9218.6–277.9	61.641.5–86.8
2091	253.2221.4–280.8	63.341.6–86.3
2092	252.7221.5–279.5	63.144.9–84.8
2093	256221.7–279.4	62.443.2–86.1
2094	251.8221–280.3	63.145.6–87.4
2095	255.6225.8–278.1	65.342.6–91.7
2096	254.7225.8–280.4	6142.7–90.1
2097	253.2221.8–281.6	58.841.2–84.6
2098	256.1225.2–279.6	65.143.8–89.8
2099	254.9223.4–278.7	64.345–87
2100	254.4226.1–279.1	58.742–88.2

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须知

一年中气温始终高于 20 °C 的夜晚数，取全国平均。
来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。

各图层如何运作、数据从何而来，以及它们无法告诉你什么：历年各国数据

莫桑比克与南非对比

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冲突

冲突死亡人数莫桑比克：2022 年为 704 人死亡南非：2022 年为 0 人死亡