卢旺达与南非：热带夜

2014 年热带夜：卢旺达为 2.4 夜，南非为 27.1 夜（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年南非的数值较高，高出 24.8 夜，是卢旺达的 11 倍。

每年夜数 · CMIP6

卢旺达南非CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径）模型第 10–90 百分位

数据解读

自 1950 年以来，在两国都有数据的每一年，南非的数值都更高。
根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年卢旺达为 34.2 夜，南非为 58.7 夜。

逐年数据

每年夜数 · CMIP6

年份	卢旺达	南非
2014	2.4	27.1
2013	2.8	28.3
2012	2.9	27.9
2011	2.7	26.1
2010	2.3	26
2009	2.5	25.8
2008	2	24.8
2007	1.9	24.7
2006	2.2	25.5
2005	2	25.3
2004	1.8	25.8
2003	1.8	25.1
2002	2.4	25
2001	2.4	24.5
2000	1.7	23.3
1999	1.6	23
1998	1.5	23.4
1997	1	22.5
1996	1.1	20.4
1995	1.1	19.3
1994	1.2	20
1993	0.9	18.1
1992	0.6	18.1
1991	1.2	22.3
1990	1.7	22.7
1989	1.5	22
1988	1.2	21.2
1987	1.3	21.9
1986	1.2	21
1985	0.8	18.9
1984	1	20
1983	0.9	19
1982	0.8	20.3
1981	1.1	20
1980	1.1	21.2
1979	0.9	19.9
1978	0.7	19.8
1977	1.1	19.2
1976	0.8	19.2
1975	1	18.8
1974	0.9	19.7
1973	1.3	19.6
1972	0.7	19
1971	0.7	19.1
1970	0.6	18.6
1969	0.8	18.7
1968	0.8	17.8
1967	0.5	17.5
1966	0.6	17.8
1965	0.6	17.2
1964	0.4	14.9
1963	0.6	16.5
1962	0.9	19.6
1961	0.8	19.7
1960	1.1	19.8
1959	0.7	18.5
1958	0.9	19.3
1957	0.8	19.4
1956	0.7	18
1955	0.8	19.5
1954	0.9	18.4
1953	0.8	18.4
1952	0.8	19.3
1951	1	18.9
1950	0.9	18.1

CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100

年份	卢旺达	南非
2015	3.41.5–7.6	28.620–39.5
2016	2.91.2–5.6	26.817.8–37.9
2017	3.41.8–5.5	28.919.6–37.8
2018	3.81.8–7.1	29.620.6–40.6
2019	3.61.3–6.9	29.820.8–41.5
2020	4.32.1–7.9	29.518.9–39.1
2021	4.22.6–7.5	31.121.4–42.9
2022	42.9–7.8	3223.7–43.1
2023	4.41.9–8.4	31.922.9–41.8
2024	52–9.6	3324–45.6
2025	4.42.1–9.5	31.920.7–44.5
2026	4.81.7–8.9	34.521.9–46.9
2027	4.92.1–8.7	34.423–47.7
2028	5.21.7–8.7	33.522.9–46
2029	5.43–9.2	36.226.5–48.3
2030	5.33.1–10.2	36.124.9–49
2031	6.63.4–10.4	36.324.5–50.3
2032	6.34–12.2	36.424.5–49.2
2033	6.52.8–12	36.924.5–48.3
2034	6.13.3–12.4	37.626.4–51.8
2035	6.83.2–12.7	37.625.2–49.5
2036	6.83.7–12.7	3826.5–50.5
2037	7.94.3–14.6	39.928.2–53.4
2038	8.44.1–15.3	41.528.4–54.2
2039	7.23.6–15.9	39.227–52.9
2040	7.74.3–14.8	38.125.6–55.6
2041	8.44.7–15	40.227.4–54.3
2042	8.44.4–20.2	4229–56.4
2043	7.83.8–16.5	42.128.2–58.4
2044	7.24.1–14.5	41.929.5–57.8
2045	9.24.6–21	42.728.2–59
2046	124.6–24.1	44.130–59.5
2047	11.25.4–26	44.630.7–61.2
2048	11.74.6–25.4	4531.9–61.5
2049	12.25.7–26.7	45.632.3–61.4
2050	11.75.4–22.9	46.931–63.6
2051	12.36.4–24	47.532–65
2052	14.56–26.1	48.332.7–64.3
2053	12.55–23.9	45.733.7–62.1
2054	12.85.6–34.3	4833.3–64.3
2055	12.66.2–32.8	46.833–68.4
2056	145.6–31.6	47.933.2–64.8
2057	14.96–32.3	50.232.6–68.9
2058	15.15.3–38.7	47.934–66.4
2059	14.96.7–38.1	51.333.1–66.9
2060	18.46.1–38.2	51.936–69.9
2061	16.65.9–40.7	50.534.8–71.3
2062	17.25.6–49.3	50.532.7–71
2063	16.46.3–39.1	50.434.3–69.7
2064	21.76.3–40.1	5134.1–67.7
2065	17.17.2–40.5	50.433.6–70.2
2066	18.37.2–42.5	5335.7–72.4
2067	16.86.3–50.2	50.634.8–70.4
2068	19.76.6–53.2	54.837.8–72.5
2069	17.66–55	54.339.1–73.4
2070	18.17.6–53.8	54.337.2–73.3
2071	19.36.3–60	55.837.9–76.9
2072	22.18.7–49.3	5639.4–78.6
2073	24.39.2–61.7	60.443.4–80.3
2074	23.28.3–57.2	57.439.1–75.3
2075	21.86.3–53.9	56.137.7–76
2076	26.77–59.7	58.538.4–75.3
2077	24.19.1–64.8	57.341–80.5
2078	21.48.3–62.1	5639.5–79
2079	26.47.8–64.8	57.639.3–78
2080	28.78.2–62.2	59.540.3–80.9
2081	25.79–66.4	5841.5–79.6
2082	27.59.2–63.2	58.839.7–77.7
2083	31.68.7–87	60.839.1–82.9
2084	31.39.4–78.4	62.540.4–82.9
2085	35.29.2–79.6	60.741.3–87.6
2086	299.7–76.5	60.542.1–83.3
2087	30.69.5–80	57.941–82.9
2088	32.59.4–76.8	64.243.4–85.3
2089	27.49.3–82.1	61.541.3–81.2
2090	25.911.4–96.6	61.641.5–86.8
2091	43.28.7–89.1	63.341.6–86.3
2092	33.910.5–89.6	63.144.9–84.8
2093	35.510.9–91	62.443.2–86.1
2094	34.79.4–91.6	63.145.6–87.4
2095	40.412.9–106.1	65.342.6–91.7
2096	35.99.8–99.9	6142.7–90.1
2097	32.69.9–89.6	58.841.2–84.6
2098	35.69.8–105.9	65.143.8–89.8
2099	32.810.9–105.8	64.345–87
2100	34.211.1–102.5	58.742–88.2

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须知

一年中气温始终高于 20 °C 的夜晚数，取全国平均。
来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。

各图层如何运作、数据从何而来，以及它们无法告诉你什么：历年各国数据

卢旺达与南非对比

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冲突

冲突死亡人数卢旺达：2022 年为 16 人死亡南非：2022 年为 0 人死亡