Rwanda vs South Africa: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 2.4 nights in Rwanda and 27.1 nights in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in South Africa, by 24.8 nights, or 11 times that in Rwanda.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

RwandaSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

South Africa has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Rwanda at 34.2 nights and South Africa at 58.7 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Rwanda	South Africa
2014	2.4	27.1
2013	2.8	28.3
2012	2.9	27.9
2011	2.7	26.1
2010	2.3	26
2009	2.5	25.8
2008	2	24.8
2007	1.9	24.7
2006	2.2	25.5
2005	2	25.3
2004	1.8	25.8
2003	1.8	25.1
2002	2.4	25
2001	2.4	24.5
2000	1.7	23.3
1999	1.6	23
1998	1.5	23.4
1997	1	22.5
1996	1.1	20.4
1995	1.1	19.3
1994	1.2	20
1993	0.9	18.1
1992	0.6	18.1
1991	1.2	22.3
1990	1.7	22.7
1989	1.5	22
1988	1.2	21.2
1987	1.3	21.9
1986	1.2	21
1985	0.8	18.9
1984	1	20
1983	0.9	19
1982	0.8	20.3
1981	1.1	20
1980	1.1	21.2
1979	0.9	19.9
1978	0.7	19.8
1977	1.1	19.2
1976	0.8	19.2
1975	1	18.8
1974	0.9	19.7
1973	1.3	19.6
1972	0.7	19
1971	0.7	19.1
1970	0.6	18.6
1969	0.8	18.7
1968	0.8	17.8
1967	0.5	17.5
1966	0.6	17.8
1965	0.6	17.2
1964	0.4	14.9
1963	0.6	16.5
1962	0.9	19.6
1961	0.8	19.7
1960	1.1	19.8
1959	0.7	18.5
1958	0.9	19.3
1957	0.8	19.4
1956	0.7	18
1955	0.8	19.5
1954	0.9	18.4
1953	0.8	18.4
1952	0.8	19.3
1951	1	18.9
1950	0.9	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Rwanda	South Africa
2015	3.41.5–7.6	28.620–39.5
2016	2.91.2–5.6	26.817.8–37.9
2017	3.41.8–5.5	28.919.6–37.8
2018	3.81.8–7.1	29.620.6–40.6
2019	3.61.3–6.9	29.820.8–41.5
2020	4.32.1–7.9	29.518.9–39.1
2021	4.22.6–7.5	31.121.4–42.9
2022	42.9–7.8	3223.7–43.1
2023	4.41.9–8.4	31.922.9–41.8
2024	52–9.6	3324–45.6
2025	4.42.1–9.5	31.920.7–44.5
2026	4.81.7–8.9	34.521.9–46.9
2027	4.92.1–8.7	34.423–47.7
2028	5.21.7–8.7	33.522.9–46
2029	5.43–9.2	36.226.5–48.3
2030	5.33.1–10.2	36.124.9–49
2031	6.63.4–10.4	36.324.5–50.3
2032	6.34–12.2	36.424.5–49.2
2033	6.52.8–12	36.924.5–48.3
2034	6.13.3–12.4	37.626.4–51.8
2035	6.83.2–12.7	37.625.2–49.5
2036	6.83.7–12.7	3826.5–50.5
2037	7.94.3–14.6	39.928.2–53.4
2038	8.44.1–15.3	41.528.4–54.2
2039	7.23.6–15.9	39.227–52.9
2040	7.74.3–14.8	38.125.6–55.6
2041	8.44.7–15	40.227.4–54.3
2042	8.44.4–20.2	4229–56.4
2043	7.83.8–16.5	42.128.2–58.4
2044	7.24.1–14.5	41.929.5–57.8
2045	9.24.6–21	42.728.2–59
2046	124.6–24.1	44.130–59.5
2047	11.25.4–26	44.630.7–61.2
2048	11.74.6–25.4	4531.9–61.5
2049	12.25.7–26.7	45.632.3–61.4
2050	11.75.4–22.9	46.931–63.6
2051	12.36.4–24	47.532–65
2052	14.56–26.1	48.332.7–64.3
2053	12.55–23.9	45.733.7–62.1
2054	12.85.6–34.3	4833.3–64.3
2055	12.66.2–32.8	46.833–68.4
2056	145.6–31.6	47.933.2–64.8
2057	14.96–32.3	50.232.6–68.9
2058	15.15.3–38.7	47.934–66.4
2059	14.96.7–38.1	51.333.1–66.9
2060	18.46.1–38.2	51.936–69.9
2061	16.65.9–40.7	50.534.8–71.3
2062	17.25.6–49.3	50.532.7–71
2063	16.46.3–39.1	50.434.3–69.7
2064	21.76.3–40.1	5134.1–67.7
2065	17.17.2–40.5	50.433.6–70.2
2066	18.37.2–42.5	5335.7–72.4
2067	16.86.3–50.2	50.634.8–70.4
2068	19.76.6–53.2	54.837.8–72.5
2069	17.66–55	54.339.1–73.4
2070	18.17.6–53.8	54.337.2–73.3
2071	19.36.3–60	55.837.9–76.9
2072	22.18.7–49.3	5639.4–78.6
2073	24.39.2–61.7	60.443.4–80.3
2074	23.28.3–57.2	57.439.1–75.3
2075	21.86.3–53.9	56.137.7–76
2076	26.77–59.7	58.538.4–75.3
2077	24.19.1–64.8	57.341–80.5
2078	21.48.3–62.1	5639.5–79
2079	26.47.8–64.8	57.639.3–78
2080	28.78.2–62.2	59.540.3–80.9
2081	25.79–66.4	5841.5–79.6
2082	27.59.2–63.2	58.839.7–77.7
2083	31.68.7–87	60.839.1–82.9
2084	31.39.4–78.4	62.540.4–82.9
2085	35.29.2–79.6	60.741.3–87.6
2086	299.7–76.5	60.542.1–83.3
2087	30.69.5–80	57.941–82.9
2088	32.59.4–76.8	64.243.4–85.3
2089	27.49.3–82.1	61.541.3–81.2
2090	25.911.4–96.6	61.641.5–86.8
2091	43.28.7–89.1	63.341.6–86.3
2092	33.910.5–89.6	63.144.9–84.8
2093	35.510.9–91	62.443.2–86.1
2094	34.79.4–91.6	63.145.6–87.4
2095	40.412.9–106.1	65.342.6–91.7
2096	35.99.8–99.9	6142.7–90.1
2097	32.69.9–89.6	58.841.2–84.6
2098	35.69.8–105.9	65.143.8–89.8
2099	32.810.9–105.8	64.345–87
2100	34.211.1–102.5	58.742–88.2

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Rwanda vs South Africa: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

Every year

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