Botswana vs South Africa: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 108 nights in Botswana and 27.1 nights in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Botswana, by 80.9 nights, or 3.98 times that in South Africa.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

BotswanaSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Botswana has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Botswana at 173.7 nights and South Africa at 58.7 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Botswana	South Africa
2014	108	27.1
2013	111.8	28.3
2012	111.3	27.9
2011	103.8	26.1
2010	104.5	26
2009	100.7	25.8
2008	99.4	24.8
2007	97.2	24.7
2006	98.4	25.5
2005	103	25.3
2004	105	25.8
2003	104.8	25.1
2002	103.8	25
2001	100.9	24.5
2000	96.7	23.3
1999	93	23
1998	98.5	23.4
1997	93.1	22.5
1996	85.1	20.4
1995	85.9	19.3
1994	80.6	20
1993	72.9	18.1
1992	75.2	18.1
1991	88.9	22.3
1990	92.4	22.7
1989	91	22
1988	85.8	21.2
1987	87.6	21.9
1986	83.2	21
1985	76	18.9
1984	77.4	20
1983	77.3	19
1982	85.3	20.3
1981	82.8	20
1980	83.5	21.2
1979	78.7	19.9
1978	77.5	19.8
1977	76.9	19.2
1976	73.2	19.2
1975	78.4	18.8
1974	79.7	19.7
1973	78	19.6
1972	74	19
1971	73.3	19.1
1970	71.7	18.6
1969	75.8	18.7
1968	70.1	17.8
1967	68.1	17.5
1966	69.8	17.8
1965	70.1	17.2
1964	63.6	14.9
1963	61.5	16.5
1962	80.8	19.6
1961	73.8	19.7
1960	79.8	19.8
1959	76.1	18.5
1958	78.3	19.3
1957	81.4	19.4
1956	66.8	18
1955	77.9	19.5
1954	70.8	18.4
1953	72.5	18.4
1952	78.8	19.3
1951	78.5	18.9
1950	72.4	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Botswana	South Africa
2015	113.889.4–136.3	28.620–39.5
2016	110.879.7–133.6	26.817.8–37.9
2017	11591.1–135.4	28.919.6–37.8
2018	11892.7–141.3	29.620.6–40.6
2019	115.588.9–136.1	29.820.8–41.5
2020	118.289.2–143.1	29.518.9–39.1
2021	119.891.9–143.4	31.121.4–42.9
2022	125.2101.2–147.8	3223.7–43.1
2023	126.4102.7–145.2	31.922.9–41.8
2024	124.699–151.3	3324–45.6
2025	121.986.3–150.4	31.920.7–44.5
2026	129.396.6–150.2	34.521.9–46.9
2027	129.4105.3–158.1	34.423–47.7
2028	127.698–153.3	33.522.9–46
2029	132.4113.2–150.2	36.226.5–48.3
2030	132.3104.8–154.8	36.124.9–49
2031	136.1101–158.8	36.324.5–50.3
2032	135.4108.1–159.6	36.424.5–49.2
2033	136.3105.8–155.8	36.924.5–48.3
2034	139.3107.7–161.6	37.626.4–51.8
2035	136.9110.3–159.6	37.625.2–49.5
2036	137.7114.1–157.7	3826.5–50.5
2037	142.5117.1–165.6	39.928.2–53.4
2038	146.4119.4–165.9	41.528.4–54.2
2039	139.3110.5–159.2	39.227–52.9
2040	134.6108.8–164.7	38.125.6–55.6
2041	142.5120.2–166.5	40.227.4–54.3
2042	145.1121.4–171.9	4229–56.4
2043	144.6122.2–171	42.128.2–58.4
2044	148.4121.9–167.9	41.929.5–57.8
2045	144.5117.2–166.8	42.728.2–59
2046	150119.2–170.1	44.130–59.5
2047	152.8124.3–175.9	44.630.7–61.2
2048	152.2122.8–174.1	4531.9–61.5
2049	156.3125.4–180.8	45.632.3–61.4
2050	155.4122.4–178.2	46.931–63.6
2051	155.3131.2–176.6	47.532–65
2052	157.4132.6–180.8	48.332.7–64.3
2053	156.6127.7–178.2	45.733.7–62.1
2054	156.5123.1–186.7	4833.3–64.3
2055	154.8128.5–184.4	46.833–68.4
2056	157.8127.1–180.3	47.933.2–64.8
2057	160.3131.8–187.1	50.232.6–68.9
2058	157.6131.4–182.7	47.934–66.4
2059	167.4137.5–192.5	51.333.1–66.9
2060	164.6137.2–187	51.936–69.9
2061	164.5130.6–189.1	50.534.8–71.3
2062	161.7131.2–183.5	50.532.7–71
2063	161.8136.5–190.6	50.434.3–69.7
2064	163.5131.1–184.2	5134.1–67.7
2065	163134.7–191.6	50.433.6–70.2
2066	167.8139.2–191.9	5335.7–72.4
2067	160.8136.3–186.4	50.634.8–70.4
2068	165.1141.1–186.2	54.837.8–72.5
2069	166.7138.4–187.8	54.339.1–73.4
2070	168.4135.2–194.2	54.337.2–73.3
2071	170.3142.2–196.1	55.837.9–76.9
2072	171.9147–194.7	5639.4–78.6
2073	172.1145.9–194.9	60.443.4–80.3
2074	170.6140.7–197.4	57.439.1–75.3
2075	165.6138.4–194.2	56.137.7–76
2076	171.6140.9–197.1	58.538.4–75.3
2077	172.4147.2–196.2	57.341–80.5
2078	170.4140.2–194.5	5639.5–79
2079	174.3142.7–197.6	57.639.3–78
2080	174.7143.3–197	59.540.3–80.9
2081	174.4142.4–192.3	5841.5–79.6
2082	173.8147.9–195.7	58.839.7–77.7
2083	174.1138.7–199.9	60.839.1–82.9
2084	179.2146.4–201.4	62.540.4–82.9
2085	178.2149.5–205.8	60.741.3–87.6
2086	174.8151.3–197.8	60.542.1–83.3
2087	170.6150.4–197.6	57.941–82.9
2088	179.3149.6–205.4	64.243.4–85.3
2089	177.7149.7–196.6	61.541.3–81.2
2090	176.4152.9–200.8	61.641.5–86.8
2091	179.8146.7–201.8	63.341.6–86.3
2092	178.4153.6–201.4	63.144.9–84.8
2093	177.9150.4–199.8	62.443.2–86.1
2094	177.5155.8–203.4	63.145.6–87.4
2095	184.5152–204.5	65.342.6–91.7
2096	177.9147.3–204.9	6142.7–90.1
2097	170.9147.6–202.9	58.841.2–84.6
2098	180.8152.1–207.6	65.143.8–89.8
2099	178.6148.2–204.3	64.345–87
2100	173.7150.3–202.7	58.742–88.2

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Botswana vs South Africa: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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Botswana vs South Africa

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