Canada vs South Africa: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 0.5 nights in Canada and 27.1 nights in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in South Africa, by 26.6 nights, or 51 times that in Canada.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CanadaSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

South Africa has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Canada at 4.1 nights and South Africa at 58.7 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Canada	South Africa
2014	0.5	27.1
2013	0.4	28.3
2012	0.5	27.9
2011	0.5	26.1
2010	0.4	26
2009	0.5	25.8
2008	0.4	24.8
2007	0.4	24.7
2006	0.5	25.5
2005	0.4	25.3
2004	0.4	25.8
2003	0.4	25.1
2002	0.4	25
2001	0.3	24.5
2000	0.3	23.3
1999	0.4	23
1998	0.3	23.4
1997	0.3	22.5
1996	0.3	20.4
1995	0.3	19.3
1994	0.2	20
1993	0.2	18.1
1992	0.1	18.1
1991	0.2	22.3
1990	0.3	22.7
1989	0.2	22
1988	0.2	21.2
1987	0.2	21.9
1986	0.2	21
1985	0.2	18.9
1984	0.2	20
1983	0.1	19
1982	0.1	20.3
1981	0.2	20
1980	0.2	21.2
1979	0.2	19.9
1978	0.2	19.8
1977	0.2	19.2
1976	0.1	19.2
1975	0.3	18.8
1974	0.2	19.7
1973	0.2	19.6
1972	0.2	19
1971	0.1	19.1
1970	0.2	18.6
1969	0.1	18.7
1968	0.1	17.8
1967	0.1	17.5
1966	0.2	17.8
1965	0.2	17.2
1964	0.1	14.9
1963	0.2	16.5
1962	0.2	19.6
1961	0.3	19.7
1960	0.2	19.8
1959	0.2	18.5
1958	0.2	19.3
1957	0.2	19.4
1956	0.2	18
1955	0.2	19.5
1954	0.2	18.4
1953	0.1	18.4
1952	0.2	19.3
1951	0.2	18.9
1950	0.2	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Canada	South Africa
2015	0.60.1–1.9	28.620–39.5
2016	0.60.2–1.9	26.817.8–37.9
2017	0.60.1–2	28.919.6–37.8
2018	0.60.2–1.8	29.620.6–40.6
2019	0.60.2–1.9	29.820.8–41.5
2020	0.60.1–2	29.518.9–39.1
2021	0.60.1–1.9	31.121.4–42.9
2022	0.80.3–2.3	3223.7–43.1
2023	0.80.2–2.5	31.922.9–41.8
2024	0.70.1–2.6	3324–45.6
2025	0.90.2–2.5	31.920.7–44.5
2026	10.2–3.1	34.521.9–46.9
2027	0.90.2–3.3	34.423–47.7
2028	10.3–2.6	33.522.9–46
2029	10.3–3	36.226.5–48.3
2030	10.2–2.7	36.124.9–49
2031	0.90.2–2.7	36.324.5–50.3
2032	1.10.3–3.3	36.424.5–49.2
2033	1.10.4–3	36.924.5–48.3
2034	1.10.3–3.1	37.626.4–51.8
2035	1.30.3–3.8	37.625.2–49.5
2036	1.30.3–4	3826.5–50.5
2037	10.3–3.3	39.928.2–53.4
2038	1.10.3–3.9	41.528.4–54.2
2039	1.10.3–3.5	39.227–52.9
2040	1.40.3–4.9	38.125.6–55.6
2041	1.30.4–3.7	40.227.4–54.3
2042	1.20.4–3.9	4229–56.4
2043	1.20.3–4.5	42.128.2–58.4
2044	1.60.5–4.3	41.929.5–57.8
2045	1.40.4–4.2	42.728.2–59
2046	1.60.4–4.9	44.130–59.5
2047	1.70.6–4.8	44.630.7–61.2
2048	1.60.5–4.1	4531.9–61.5
2049	1.60.4–5	45.632.3–61.4
2050	1.70.4–5.2	46.931–63.6
2051	1.80.5–6	47.532–65
2052	20.3–5.2	48.332.7–64.3
2053	1.50.3–4.9	45.733.7–62.1
2054	1.80.4–5.7	4833.3–64.3
2055	20.5–5	46.833–68.4
2056	1.90.5–5.8	47.933.2–64.8
2057	20.5–5.8	50.232.6–68.9
2058	2.10.5–6.4	47.934–66.4
2059	20.6–5.9	51.333.1–66.9
2060	2.50.8–5.6	51.936–69.9
2061	2.40.6–6	50.534.8–71.3
2062	2.60.4–6.4	50.532.7–71
2063	2.20.6–6.4	50.434.3–69.7
2064	1.70.4–6	5134.1–67.7
2065	2.40.5–7	50.433.6–70.2
2066	2.30.5–7.4	5335.7–72.4
2067	2.40.6–6.3	50.634.8–70.4
2068	2.50.5–7.9	54.837.8–72.5
2069	2.90.8–7	54.339.1–73.4
2070	2.30.7–7.2	54.337.2–73.3
2071	2.40.5–7.3	55.837.9–76.9
2072	2.50.7–7.2	5639.4–78.6
2073	2.60.6–7.6	60.443.4–80.3
2074	2.60.7–7.6	57.439.1–75.3
2075	2.60.6–7.7	56.137.7–76
2076	2.80.7–7.9	58.538.4–75.3
2077	2.90.7–8.5	57.341–80.5
2078	2.60.8–8.4	5639.5–79
2079	30.7–7.4	57.639.3–78
2080	2.70.8–7.5	59.540.3–80.9
2081	31–8.6	5841.5–79.6
2082	3.40.7–9.1	58.839.7–77.7
2083	3.21–9.4	60.839.1–82.9
2084	2.90.8–8.4	62.540.4–82.9
2085	3.51–9.1	60.741.3–87.6
2086	3.51–9.4	60.542.1–83.3
2087	3.80.9–9.5	57.941–82.9
2088	3.60.7–9.2	64.243.4–85.3
2089	3.40.9–8.5	61.541.3–81.2
2090	3.30.8–9	61.641.5–86.8
2091	3.91–10.6	63.341.6–86.3
2092	3.91–10	63.144.9–84.8
2093	3.61–9.6	62.443.2–86.1
2094	3.90.6–9.2	63.145.6–87.4
2095	3.71.1–11.2	65.342.6–91.7
2096	3.91.1–10.7	6142.7–90.1
2097	41.1–10.7	58.841.2–84.6
2098	3.71.1–10.2	65.143.8–89.8
2099	3.81.3–9.7	64.345–87
2100	4.11–11.5	58.742–88.2

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Canada vs South Africa: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

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