China vs Italy: Days above 35 °C

Days above 35 °C in 2014: 5.1 days in China and 0.5 days in Italy, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in China, by 4.6 days, or 10 times that in Italy.

Watch it change on the map

days a year · CMIP6

ChinaItalyCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

China has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts China at 16.5 days and Italy at 9.6 days in 2100.

Every year

days a year · CMIP6

Year	China	Italy
2014	5.1	0.5
2013	5.4	0.2
2012	5.3	0.2
2011	4.9	0.3
2010	5	0.4
2009	4.9	0.3
2008	4.4	0.3
2007	4.2	0.1
2006	4.7	0.2
2005	4.6	0.1
2004	4.8	0.3
2003	4.6	0.2
2002	4.6	0.1
2001	4.5	0.1
2000	4.5	0.2
1999	4.4	0.1
1998	4.2	0.1
1997	3.7	0.1
1996	3.9	0.1
1995	3.4	0.1
1994	3.6	0
1993	2.8	0
1992	2.6	0
1991	3.8	0
1990	3.6	0.1
1989	3.9	0
1988	3.1	0
1987	3.3	0
1986	3.1	0
1985	2.6	0
1984	2.8	0
1983	2.7	0
1982	3.3	0
1981	3.2	0
1980	3.1	0.1
1979	3	0
1978	3.3	0
1977	3.2	0
1976	2.8	0
1975	3	0
1974	3.1	0
1973	2.7	0
1972	2.9	0
1971	2.9	0
1970	2.7	0
1969	3	0.1
1968	2.9	0
1967	3	0
1966	3	0
1965	2.9	0
1964	2.5	0.1
1963	3.3	0
1962	3.1	0
1961	3.5	0
1960	3.5	0
1959	3.2	0.1
1958	3.7	0
1957	3.4	0
1956	3.4	0
1955	3.3	0.1
1954	3.3	0
1953	3.3	0.1
1952	3.4	0.1
1951	3.4	0
1950	3.4	0.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	China	Italy
2015	5.32.9–9.2	0.40.1–1.7
2016	5.72.6–10.5	0.40–2.6
2017	63.3–10.4	0.60–3.2
2018	5.83.1–9.6	0.60.1–3.2
2019	6.23.2–10.5	0.80.1–2.4
2020	6.23.5–10.4	0.60–3
2021	6.33.4–11.3	0.70–3.2
2022	6.93.9–11.5	0.90–4.3
2023	6.93.7–12	0.70–3.4
2024	6.83.7–12	1.10–3.9
2025	7.13.8–11.7	0.90.1–4.3
2026	7.33.6–12.8	10.1–6.1
2027	73.7–11.6	0.90–3.8
2028	7.23.6–12.4	1.40.2–5
2029	7.54–13.1	1.20.1–5.5
2030	7.34–12.7	0.90.1–4.8
2031	7.94.1–14.2	10.1–4.1
2032	7.84.4–13.8	1.20.3–4.7
2033	7.54.3–13.5	1.60–4.3
2034	7.94–13.7	1.70.2–6.9
2035	8.54.6–14.2	1.90.2–6.5
2036	7.84–14.3	1.90.2–7
2037	8.54.5–14.6	1.90.4–6.2
2038	9.15–15.5	1.90.2–7.5
2039	8.24.1–14.8	20.3–5.6
2040	9.45.3–16.6	2.20.3–6.7
2041	9.45.2–15.7	2.10.3–7
2042	9.35.4–16.8	1.80.2–6.9
2043	9.34.9–16.9	2.10.2–5.7
2044	9.64.9–17.5	2.40.4–6.4
2045	9.55.6–16.4	2.10.2–6.2
2046	9.95.7–17.1	2.70.5–8.8
2047	10.45.6–17.3	3.30.9–8.1
2048	105.3–18.3	2.10.1–9.3
2049	10.15.6–17.2	2.80.3–9.4
2050	10.55.8–18	3.80.8–8.5
2051	10.35.3–18.3	3.20.6–11.6
2052	10.35.5–17.9	2.90.2–9.6
2053	115.6–19.6	30.6–9.8
2054	11.26.7–19	3.70.4–11.5
2055	116–19.3	3.30.3–10.2
2056	11.66–19.2	3.40.9–11.1
2057	11.66–19.5	3.10.6–8.5
2058	11.35.9–20.8	4.80.6–12.3
2059	11.66–20.3	4.20.6–12.5
2060	12.97.3–21.6	3.80.9–11.3
2061	126.7–20.4	4.51.2–10.3
2062	12.36.6–21.5	4.50.8–10.7
2063	12.66.1–22	5.70.8–13.2
2064	12.47.1–21.2	5.51–13.9
2065	12.86.8–21.5	4.80.9–13
2066	12.96.9–21.3	4.40.6–12.7
2067	13.26.7–22	7.31.3–17
2068	13.27.1–22.6	5.71.2–13.8
2069	12.96.8–21.1	6.11.5–11.5
2070	12.77–24.1	5.71.3–15.6
2071	13.47.3–24	7.11.2–15.6
2072	13.77.4–24	6.52.1–14.7
2073	14.78–23.7	4.51.1–11.8
2074	14.27.4–23.9	5.30.7–12.8
2075	13.97.6–24	5.81.3–18
2076	14.87.8–24.5	5.81–15.9
2077	14.98.1–25.3	5.81.5–14.7
2078	13.87.5–24.2	5.41.4–20.3
2079	14.27.8–24.1	6.71.2–20
2080	14.58.1–25.3	6.41.8–17.3
2081	14.48.1–25.7	61.5–16.9
2082	14.98.8–25.8	9.42.3–18.9
2083	14.88.6–25.1	6.11.1–15.3
2084	14.87.9–25.6	7.72.6–20.2
2085	15.67.9–26.9	8.22.7–17.8
2086	157.8–25.1	8.12.4–18.1
2087	14.88.5–25.2	8.12–20
2088	16.29–27.9	10.63.1–22.1
2089	15.98.5–27.3	9.23–22.4
2090	16.18.7–26	8.62.9–17.7
2091	15.78.7–27.1	9.73–19.4
2092	16.48.7–28	6.70.5–17.5
2093	16.78.8–27.3	6.42–17.4
2094	15.67.7–27.4	7.62–19.9
2095	16.59–27.8	9.71.3–19.2
2096	16.89.8–28.2	7.61.6–21.4
2097	15.88.5–26.2	8.61.8–18.9
2098	15.78.8–26.8	9.92.4–19
2099	168.3–27.9	9.51.7–19.7
2100	16.58.3–27.6	9.62.4–20.4

Each country on its own

Good to know

Days in a year whose highest temperature passes 35 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

China vs Italy: Days above 35 °C

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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