China vs Nigeria: Fertility rate

Fertility rate in 2023: 1 births per woman in China and 4.48 births per woman in Nigeria, by UN estimates. In 2023 the value was higher in Nigeria, by 3.48 births per woman, or 4.48 times that in China.

Watch it change on the map

births per woman · UN

ChinaNigeriaUN projection (medium variant)95% prediction intervalWorld

What the numbers say

Nigeria has been higher since 1969, when it overtook China.
In 2023, China ranked 221 and Nigeria ranked 15 of 229 countries, counting from the highest.
The UN projection (medium variant) puts China at 1.35 births per woman and Nigeria at 1.91 births per woman in 2100.
The world as a whole: 2.25 births per woman in 2023.

Every year

births per woman · UN

Year	China	Nigeria	World
2023	1	4.48	2.25
2022	1.03	4.55	2.27
2021	1.12	4.64	2.29
2020	1.24	4.7	2.32
2019	1.5	4.86	2.4
2018	1.54	5.02	2.44
2017	1.8	5.18	2.5
2016	1.77	5.34	2.54
2015	1.67	5.5	2.54
2014	1.77	5.62	2.56
2013	1.71	5.69	2.57
2012	1.8	5.8	2.61
2011	1.67	5.89	2.59
2010	1.69	5.95	2.6
2009	1.71	5.99	2.62
2008	1.7	6.02	2.63
2007	1.67	6.03	2.62
2006	1.64	6.05	2.63
2005	1.62	6.06	2.63
2004	1.61	6.09	2.65
2003	1.57	6.1	2.66
2002	1.57	6.12	2.68
2001	1.56	6.13	2.71
2000	1.63	6.12	2.75
1999	1.53	6.08	2.75
1998	1.52	6.07	2.78
1997	1.53	6.14	2.81
1996	1.55	6.22	2.85
1995	1.59	6.27	2.89
1994	1.63	6.32	2.93
1993	1.69	6.35	2.98
1992	1.78	6.39	3.04
1991	1.93	6.43	3.13
1990	2.51	6.46	3.31
1989	2.52	6.49	3.35
1988	2.54	6.5	3.39
1987	2.76	6.5	3.48
1986	2.72	6.56	3.5
1985	2.63	6.62	3.51
1984	2.61	6.7	3.55
1983	2.56	6.78	3.58
1982	2.97	6.8	3.71
1981	2.79	6.82	3.71
1980	2.74	6.85	3.74
1979	2.75	6.89	3.77
1978	2.72	6.92	3.79
1977	2.84	6.86	3.85
1976	3.24	6.81	3.97
1975	3.57	6.77	4.08
1974	4.17	6.7	4.26
1973	4.73	6.63	4.42
1972	5.11	6.58	4.55
1971	5.52	6.53	4.68
1970	6.09	6.47	4.83
1969	6.18	6.44	4.87
1968	6.51	6.42	4.96
1967	5.81	6.4	4.85
1966	6.31	6.39	4.96
1965	6.61	6.37	5.07
1964	6.67	6.36	5.12
1963	7.51	6.35	5.31
1962	6.09	6.36	5.02
1961	3.86	6.35	4.57
1960	4.45	6.36	4.7
1959	4.72	6.38	4.74
1958	5.7	6.39	4.93
1957	6.43	6.4	5.07
1956	5.85	6.41	4.93
1955	6.26	6.4	5
1954	6.28	6.4	5
1953	6.04	6.4	4.92
1952	6.47	6.39	5
1951	5.7	6.42	4.82
1950	5.81	6.42	4.85

UN projection (medium variant) · 2024–2100

Year	China	Nigeria	World
2024	1.010.78–1.25	4.383.58–5.11	2.25
2025	1.020.76–1.28	4.33.43–5.1	2.24
2026	1.030.75–1.31	4.213.22–5.06	2.23
2027	1.040.75–1.34	4.13.07–5.06	2.22
2028	1.050.75–1.36	4.012.9–5.04	2.21
2029	1.050.73–1.37	3.922.73–5.01	2.2
2030	1.060.73–1.4	3.822.59–5	2.2
2031	1.070.71–1.43	3.732.47–4.99	2.19
2032	1.080.7–1.45	3.652.32–4.97	2.18
2033	1.080.69–1.47	3.562.25–4.97	2.17
2034	1.090.69–1.48	3.482.15–4.89	2.16
2035	1.10.69–1.49	3.412.08–4.89	2.15
2036	1.10.68–1.5	3.342.03–4.83	2.15
2037	1.110.67–1.53	3.271.95–4.77	2.14
2038	1.120.66–1.53	3.211.9–4.75	2.13
2039	1.130.67–1.55	3.161.87–4.72	2.13
2040	1.130.66–1.56	3.11.81–4.69	2.13
2041	1.140.66–1.58	3.041.76–4.68	2.12
2042	1.140.65–1.59	2.991.73–4.65	2.12
2043	1.150.65–1.6	2.941.7–4.62	2.12
2044	1.150.65–1.62	2.891.65–4.62	2.12
2045	1.160.65–1.63	2.851.61–4.53	2.12
2046	1.160.65–1.63	2.81.61–4.5	2.11
2047	1.170.65–1.65	2.761.59–4.44	2.11
2048	1.170.64–1.67	2.731.58–4.43	2.11
2049	1.180.64–1.67	2.691.55–4.38	2.1
2050	1.180.64–1.69	2.661.54–4.36	2.1
2051	1.190.63–1.7	2.631.53–4.32	2.09
2052	1.190.63–1.71	2.61.51–4.28	2.09
2053	1.20.63–1.71	2.571.49–4.26	2.08
2054	1.20.63–1.72	2.541.46–4.21	2.07
2055	1.210.63–1.74	2.511.44–4.13	2.07
2056	1.210.63–1.74	2.491.42–4.14	2.06
2057	1.220.65–1.78	2.461.38–4.12	2.05
2058	1.220.64–1.77	2.441.38–4.11	2.04
2059	1.230.64–1.76	2.411.35–4.08	2.04
2060	1.230.64–1.77	2.391.36–4.05	2.03
2061	1.230.63–1.77	2.371.35–4.05	2.02
2062	1.240.62–1.78	2.351.34–4.04	2.02
2063	1.240.62–1.8	2.321.31–3.99	2.01
2064	1.250.64–1.81	2.31.31–3.99	2
2065	1.250.62–1.82	2.281.3–3.97	2
2066	1.250.62–1.82	2.261.3–3.97	1.99
2067	1.260.63–1.83	2.251.29–3.88	1.98
2068	1.260.64–1.85	2.231.26–3.83	1.98
2069	1.270.63–1.84	2.221.26–3.82	1.97
2070	1.270.64–1.86	2.21.24–3.79	1.97
2071	1.270.64–1.88	2.191.22–3.83	1.96
2072	1.270.64–1.86	2.171.23–3.76	1.96
2073	1.280.61–1.87	2.161.23–3.71	1.95
2074	1.280.63–1.87	2.151.23–3.7	1.95
2075	1.280.63–1.89	2.131.22–3.7	1.94
2076	1.290.62–1.89	2.121.22–3.64	1.94
2077	1.290.62–1.89	2.111.21–3.66	1.94
2078	1.290.62–1.9	2.11.19–3.6	1.93
2079	1.290.61–1.9	2.091.2–3.61	1.93
2080	1.30.61–1.9	2.071.18–3.58	1.92
2081	1.30.62–1.9	2.061.16–3.56	1.92
2082	1.30.62–1.92	2.051.16–3.51	1.91
2083	1.30.63–1.94	2.041.15–3.54	1.91
2084	1.310.62–1.94	2.031.15–3.54	1.91
2085	1.310.62–1.94	2.021.15–3.49	1.9
2086	1.310.62–1.95	2.021.15–3.48	1.9
2087	1.310.61–1.95	2.011.13–3.48	1.89
2088	1.320.61–1.96	21.12–3.5	1.89
2089	1.320.61–1.97	1.991.12–3.48	1.88
2090	1.320.61–1.96	1.981.11–3.46	1.88
2091	1.330.61–1.97	1.971.11–3.41	1.88
2092	1.330.62–1.97	1.961.11–3.36	1.87
2093	1.330.62–1.97	1.961.11–3.39	1.87
2094	1.330.62–1.97	1.951.08–3.39	1.86
2095	1.330.61–1.96	1.951.09–3.37	1.86
2096	1.330.62–1.96	1.941.08–3.36	1.85
2097	1.340.62–1.97	1.931.08–3.38	1.85
2098	1.340.62–1.98	1.931.07–3.36	1.85
2099	1.350.6–2	1.921.09–3.36	1.84
2100	1.350.6–1.99	1.911.08–3.36	1.84

Each country on its own

Good to know

The children a woman would have over her life at the year’s birth rates for each age.
Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024.
The dashed line is the UN projection (medium variant), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its 95% prediction interval.
Ranks count the 229 countries with a value in 2023, highest first.
The faint line is the world as a whole, as the same source counts it.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

China vs Nigeria: Fertility rate

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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