China vs Nigeria: Infant mortality

Infant mortality in 2023: 5.1 per 1,000 live births in China and 69.5 per 1,000 live births in Nigeria, by UN estimates. In 2023 the value was higher in Nigeria, by 64.4 per 1,000 live births, or 14 times that in China.

Watch it change on the map

deaths per 1,000 live births · UN

ChinaNigeriaUN projection (medium variant)95% prediction intervalWorld

What the numbers say

Nigeria has been higher since 1961, when it overtook China.
In 2023, China ranked 169 and Nigeria ranked 2 of 229 countries, counting from the highest.
The UN projection (medium variant) puts China at 1.5 per 1,000 live births and Nigeria at 38.9 per 1,000 live births in 2100.
The world as a whole: 27.3 per 1,000 live births in 2023.

Every year

deaths per 1,000 live births · UN

Year	China	Nigeria	World
2023	5.1	69.5	27.3
2022	5.3	71.2	28.2
2021	5.7	73	28.4
2020	6.1	74.7	28.7
2019	6.5	76.3	29.2
2018	7	77.8	29.7
2017	7.5	79.1	30.3
2016	8	80.2	31.1
2015	8.7	81.3	32.1
2014	9.3	82.3	32.9
2013	10.1	83.1	33.9
2012	10.9	84.1	35
2011	11.8	85.2	36.8
2010	12.7	86.5	37.7
2009	13.8	87.9	39.1
2008	15.1	89.5	40.4
2007	16.2	91.4	42
2006	17.6	93.5	43.7
2005	19.2	95.8	45.4
2004	20.8	98.2	47.2
2003	22.5	100.7	48.8
2002	24.3	103.1	50.6
2001	26.1	105.6	52.2
2000	27.9	107.8	53.7
1999	29.7	110.1	55.5
1998	31.4	112.1	57.1
1997	33	113.8	58.3
1996	34.5	115.3	59.6
1995	35.8	116.5	60.8
1994	37	117.5	62
1993	38	118.2	62.9
1992	38.9	118.7	64.1
1991	39.6	119.2	64.9
1990	40.1	119.2	64.9
1989	40.6	119.3	66.2
1988	40.9	119.3	68
1987	41.2	119.1	68.6
1986	41.5	119	70.8
1985	42	118.8	72.9
1984	42.7	118.9	74.6
1983	43.6	119	76.1
1982	44.7	119.6	76.6
1981	46.2	120.4	78.7
1980	48.1	121.8	80.6
1979	50.1	123.2	82.5
1978	52.5	125.1	84.7
1977	55.2	127.4	86.4
1976	58.8	129.8	88.1
1975	61.5	134.6	89.6
1974	64.5	136.9	90.9
1973	67.7	139.2	92.1
1972	71	141.2	93.6
1971	74.3	143.4	96.1
1970	77.5	145.1	96.9
1969	80.5	146.7	98.3
1968	83.4	148	100.2
1967	86.1	151.5	103.1
1966	88.8	151	104.9
1965	91.3	151.7	106.4
1964	93.8	152.5	106.1
1963	96.2	153.3	107.7
1962	98.6	154.1	110.2
1961	154.3	154.9	121.5
1960	196.1	155.7	131.8
1959	153.5	156.5	125.7
1958	107.9	157.2	117.7
1957	110.2	157.9	120
1956	112.6	158.6	121.9
1955	114.9	159.3	124.8
1954	117.8	159.9	127.7
1953	119.7	160.6	130.1
1952	122.2	161.3	132.7
1951	124.7	162	136
1950	127.1	162.6	138.1

UN projection (medium variant) · 2024–2100

Year	China	Nigeria	World
2024	6.44.9–8.5	68.560.6–78.7	26.9
2025	64.4–8.6	67.756.4–82	26.4
2026	5.43.8–8.1	66.953.6–84.8	25.9
2027	5.23.5–8.4	66.251.4–87.7	25.4
2028	5.13.3–8.3	65.449.2–88.4	24.9
2029	4.93.1–8.5	64.747.2–89.2	24.5
2030	4.82.9–8.5	64.345.8–91.2	24
2031	4.62.8–8.6	63.743.8–93.3	23.6
2032	4.52.6–8.4	63.142.6–94.6	23.2
2033	4.32.4–8.6	62.640.8–95.6	22.8
2034	4.22.3–8.3	6239.7–97	22.3
2035	4.12.2–8.3	61.638.2–97.9	21.9
2036	42.1–8.2	61.137–99.6	21.5
2037	3.92–8.3	60.636.3–99.9	21.1
2038	3.71.9–8.2	60.136.2–99.8	20.8
2039	3.61.8–8.1	59.534.2–100.9	20.4
2040	3.51.8–7.9	5933.3–99.2	20
2041	3.51.7–8.2	58.632.6–100.4	19.7
2042	3.41.7–8.1	5831.7–99.5	19.4
2043	3.31.6–7.9	57.530.5–101.1	19
2044	3.21.5–7.7	57.128.8–100.5	18.7
2045	3.11.5–7.6	56.627.9–101.5	18.4
2046	3.11.5–7.6	56.227.2–101.4	18.2
2047	31.4–7.3	55.726.1–101.5	17.9
2048	2.91.4–7.6	55.225.8–101.9	17.7
2049	2.91.3–7.6	54.825–101	17.5
2050	2.81.3–7.4	54.423.8–102	17.3
2051	2.81.3–7.5	53.923–104.6	17.1
2052	2.71.3–7.2	53.521.9–105	16.9
2053	2.71.2–7.2	53.121.4–104.9	16.7
2054	2.61.2–7	52.621.8–106.2	16.5
2055	2.61.1–7.2	52.320.7–105.3	16.3
2056	2.51.1–6.6	51.919.8–106.3	16.1
2057	2.51–6.6	51.618.7–106.2	15.9
2058	2.41–6.4	51.218.2–107.5	15.7
2059	2.41–6.3	50.818.1–109.7	15.5
2060	2.41–6.3	50.418.4–110.8	15.3
2061	2.31–6.1	50.118.2–110.5	15.1
2062	2.30.9–6.1	49.717.6–110.2	14.9
2063	2.30.9–6.1	49.417.6–110.6	14.7
2064	2.20.9–5.8	4917.2–108.2	14.5
2065	2.20.8–5.6	48.716.3–108.3	14.3
2066	2.20.8–5.7	48.416–109.3	14.1
2067	2.10.8–5.5	48.115.1–106.5	13.9
2068	2.10.8–5.6	47.714.9–108.8	13.8
2069	2.10.8–5.4	47.414.5–108.1	13.6
2070	20.8–5.3	47.114–109.2	13.4
2071	20.8–5.3	46.814.1–109	13.2
2072	20.7–5.2	46.413.1–110.9	13
2073	20.7–5.1	46.113.5–111.7	12.9
2074	1.90.7–4.8	45.812.7–111.7	12.7
2075	1.90.7–4.8	45.512.4–111.6	12.6
2076	1.90.7–4.9	45.112.4–110.3	12.4
2077	1.90.6–5	44.912.2–113	12.3
2078	1.90.6–4.8	44.611.9–114.4	12.1
2079	1.80.6–4.8	44.311.2–113.3	12
2080	1.80.6–4.6	4411.4–114.5	11.8
2081	1.80.6–4.6	43.711.1–111.9	11.7
2082	1.80.6–4.5	43.411–112.8	11.6
2083	1.80.6–4.4	43.110.7–111.4	11.5
2084	1.70.6–4.3	42.810.7–112.4	11.4
2085	1.70.6–4.4	42.610.5–108.6	11.3
2086	1.70.5–4.2	42.410.6–112.4	11.1
2087	1.70.5–4.1	42.110.6–112.3	11
2088	1.70.5–4.2	41.810.3–110.4	10.9
2089	1.70.5–4.1	41.510.2–110.2	10.8
2090	1.60.5–4	41.310.1–109.2	10.7
2091	1.60.5–4	4110.2–110.2	10.6
2092	1.60.5–4	40.810.1–111.2	10.5
2093	1.60.5–4	40.59.7–111.1	10.4
2094	1.60.5–4	40.29.5–109	10.3
2095	1.60.4–4	409.7–110.2	10.1
2096	1.60.4–4	39.89.4–109.6	10
2097	1.50.4–4	39.59.1–111	9.9
2098	1.50.4–4.1	39.38.8–109.4	9.8
2099	1.50.4–4	39.18.8–109.8	9.7
2100	1.50.4–4	38.98.7–108.1	9.6

Each country on its own

Good to know

Babies who die before their first birthday, per 1,000 born alive.
Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024.
The dashed line is the UN projection (medium variant), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its 95% prediction interval.
Ranks count the 229 countries with a value in 2023, highest first.
The faint line is the world as a whole, as the same source counts it.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

China vs Nigeria: Infant mortality

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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