Ethiopia vs South Africa: Days above 35 °C

Days above 35 °C in 2014: 42.9 days in Ethiopia and 13.2 days in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Ethiopia, by 29.7 days, or 3.26 times that in South Africa.

Watch it change on the map

days a year · CMIP6

EthiopiaSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Ethiopia has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Ethiopia at 80.7 days and South Africa at 40 days in 2100.

Every year

days a year · CMIP6

Year	Ethiopia	South Africa
2014	42.9	13.2
2013	42.4	15.2
2012	41.6	14.3
2011	41.7	11.7
2010	41	12.5
2009	39.4	13.2
2008	38.4	12.3
2007	37.3	12
2006	38.4	11.9
2005	38.5	13.3
2004	37.6	13.9
2003	38.3	12.6
2002	39	12.6
2001	38.7	11.1
2000	37.3	11.8
1999	36.7	11
1998	36.8	12.1
1997	35.7	11.3
1996	34.4	9.4
1995	34.2	8.3
1994	32.7	8.5
1993	30.2	7.8
1992	29.7	7.1
1991	34.7	11.1
1990	34.2	10.1
1989	33.7	11.5
1988	34.3	9.4
1987	34.7	11.5
1986	34.2	10.2
1985	32	8.7
1984	32.1	8.7
1983	31.1	8.6
1982	33.2	10.5
1981	34	9.7
1980	33.9	10.3
1979	33	9.4
1978	32.2	9.5
1977	32.6	9.3
1976	31.1	9
1975	30.4	9.3
1974	31.9	8.8
1973	32.6	9.5
1972	31.4	8.4
1971	30.4	8.7
1970	30.3	8.2
1969	31	8.9
1968	29.8	8.4
1967	29.5	6.9
1966	30.3	7.8
1965	29.6	7.9
1964	27.2	6.4
1963	28.6	7
1962	31.8	8.9
1961	32.6	10.5
1960	31.1	9.7
1959	31.3	8.9
1958	30.9	9.3
1957	32	10.3
1956	31.3	7.9
1955	30.5	10.3
1954	31.1	9.1
1953	31.7	7.8
1952	31.5	9
1951	31.4	8.4
1950	31.4	8.7

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Ethiopia	South Africa
2015	43.232.9–53.6	14.76.8–24
2016	41.931.5–52.8	13.46.3–22.2
2017	43.730.8–54.5	15.27.7–24.6
2018	43.231.7–56.4	179.7–28
2019	43.132.6–54.9	14.67.1–24.5
2020	45.232.1–57	15.77.4–23.5
2021	4432.6–55.5	17.99.4–27
2022	45.633–57.2	189.8–29
2023	46.934.4–59.5	18.69.9–27.1
2024	48.136–61.5	17.89.8–28
2025	46.334.6–58.6	16.57.5–29.6
2026	45.732.3–63.1	20.19.3–29.4
2027	46.132.5–61.1	19.910.5–32.8
2028	47.633.9–62	19.110.6–33.2
2029	49.435.8–62.7	21.412.9–33.6
2030	48.535.7–62.6	21.19.6–33.9
2031	51.139.4–65.9	20.79.9–35.4
2032	50.137.7–64.1	2110.9–34.8
2033	53.438.5–66.4	22.612.2–34.2
2034	51.538.9–67.1	24.615–35.1
2035	51.737.3–67.5	20.911.7–31.3
2036	50.537.8–64.5	21.111.9–32.2
2037	52.738.1–68.3	23.412.6–35.2
2038	53.640.2–68.6	26.216–36.7
2039	54.840.3–68.9	22.611.4–35.9
2040	53.740.8–71.1	21.510.9–35.4
2041	55.640.9–72.9	23.213.2–35.8
2042	55.742–71.7	25.214.3–39.6
2043	54.839.1–72.7	25.613.4–39.9
2044	57.440.3–72.9	26.113.1–41.6
2045	5841.7–76.4	26.813.1–40.3
2046	60.840.5–78.9	25.914.5–40.8
2047	61.544–78.8	26.713.7–41.4
2048	60.143.7–78	29.215.6–45.4
2049	62.445.4–81	29.117.3–44.7
2050	6044.7–80.4	29.815.7–48.6
2051	62.245.7–85.1	27.913.6–45.2
2052	62.244.5–79.6	31.918.3–46.8
2053	61.143.4–81.4	28.318.6–43.2
2054	59.343.9–79.1	30.717.3–50.1
2055	64.645.2–84.1	2917.8–48
2056	62.243.7–85.5	29.916–45.3
2057	64.347.1–87.3	3117.4–50.1
2058	65.743.7–87.1	31.115.7–46
2059	66.145.7–88	3216.1–49.9
2060	67.546.8–88.1	33.419.8–49.7
2061	67.548.2–88.8	32.718.1–51.1
2062	67.146.1–91.6	31.317.7–52.6
2063	67.648.5–88.1	32.317.4–50.7
2064	68.946.1–87.5	31.817.7–47.6
2065	66.149.5–91.3	31.716.2–50.7
2066	68.249.7–87.1	34.318.4–55.3
2067	69.348.8–91.1	32.617.2–52.4
2068	67.548.2–92.4	33.819.2–54.3
2069	69.450.1–90	34.621.3–52.4
2070	67.948.5–95.4	32.819.3–51.1
2071	73.149.8–96.2	35.320.8–55.8
2072	72.849.4–92.6	37.820.3–54.6
2073	71.653.2–95.3	4425.6–62.1
2074	68.448.8–96.8	38.320.7–55.8
2075	72.849.6–96.6	34.218.7–53.1
2076	7552.9–98.3	38.822.9–57.5
2077	77.651.6–104.2	39.124.2–60.3
2078	72.252.6–97.6	35.521.6–53.4
2079	74.452.7–95.3	40.522.9–59.7
2080	7750.9–100.6	40.523.4–59
2081	78.953.6–104.3	38.523.8–59.9
2082	77.354.5–99.1	38.622.5–58.2
2083	78.455.3–102.5	38.518.7–62.9
2084	7854.4–101.3	39.720.6–58.4
2085	78.855–103.6	4021.5–65.8
2086	81.653.6–106.3	40.823–63.7
2087	78.353–102.2	38.324.6–58.6
2088	7854–103.9	42.222.6–66.3
2089	78.455.9–100.2	41.624.2–59.1
2090	82.555.7–105.3	42.326.1–66.4
2091	82.554.6–108.2	43.324.2–63.6
2092	80.652.6–104	43.928–61.6
2093	80.758.9–107	37.521.3–63.4
2094	81.357.6–105.4	41.325.4–65.9
2095	8257–107.8	43.522.9–70.2
2096	80.654–107.6	41.224.1–66.8
2097	79.556.7–107.5	37.723.7–60.9
2098	78.853.4–108.7	46.425.1–71.4
2099	8155.7–110.5	42.525.1–64.8
2100	80.755.5–106.4	4022.2–64.5

Each country on its own

Good to know

Days in a year whose highest temperature passes 35 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time