Ethiopia vs South Africa: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 144.9 nights in Ethiopia and 27.1 nights in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Ethiopia, by 117.8 nights, or 5.34 times that in South Africa.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

EthiopiaSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Ethiopia has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Ethiopia at 201.7 nights and South Africa at 58.7 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Ethiopia	South Africa
2014	144.9	27.1
2013	145.1	28.3
2012	144.4	27.9
2011	145.6	26.1
2010	142.4	26
2009	140.3	25.8
2008	137.1	24.8
2007	138.2	24.7
2006	138.7	25.5
2005	138.1	25.3
2004	139.1	25.8
2003	138.8	25.1
2002	137.4	25
2001	139.2	24.5
2000	135.5	23.3
1999	132.6	23
1998	132.9	23.4
1997	132.7	22.5
1996	129.7	20.4
1995	127.8	19.3
1994	126.3	20
1993	122.5	18.1
1992	119.7	18.1
1991	129.5	22.3
1990	132.7	22.7
1989	129.4	22
1988	128.2	21.2
1987	126.4	21.9
1986	128.1	21
1985	122.8	18.9
1984	124.8	20
1983	120.6	19
1982	126.3	20.3
1981	127	20
1980	124.9	21.2
1979	125.1	19.9
1978	124.7	19.8
1977	125.8	19.2
1976	122	19.2
1975	119.5	18.8
1974	124	19.7
1973	125.2	19.6
1972	122.3	19
1971	120.6	19.1
1970	121.3	18.6
1969	120.4	18.7
1968	119.1	17.8
1967	118.1	17.5
1966	119.5	17.8
1965	117.4	17.2
1964	116.6	14.9
1963	115.7	16.5
1962	121.6	19.6
1961	124.2	19.7
1960	124.5	19.8
1959	121.6	18.5
1958	124.1	19.3
1957	123.2	19.4
1956	120.9	18
1955	122.8	19.5
1954	121.6	18.4
1953	121.2	18.4
1952	122.8	19.3
1951	123	18.9
1950	122	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Ethiopia	South Africa
2015	146.6129.4–163.9	28.620–39.5
2016	144.1127–160.6	26.817.8–37.9
2017	148.3129.2–164.9	28.919.6–37.8
2018	149.6131.6–166	29.620.6–40.6
2019	146.2129.3–166	29.820.8–41.5
2020	149.4129.6–168.5	29.518.9–39.1
2021	150.7132.1–170	31.121.4–42.9
2022	154135.7–171.2	3223.7–43.1
2023	153.5135.4–171.4	31.922.9–41.8
2024	156.5135.9–175.6	3324–45.6
2025	154132.6–175.5	31.920.7–44.5
2026	153132–175	34.521.9–46.9
2027	154.2134.4–175.3	34.423–47.7
2028	157.5138.3–177.4	33.522.9–46
2029	159.2141.8–176.8	36.226.5–48.3
2030	156.8136.3–175.7	36.124.9–49
2031	161.4142.4–179.1	36.324.5–50.3
2032	161.7143.1–182.5	36.424.5–49.2
2033	161.8140–180.9	36.924.5–48.3
2034	158.8141.5–184.3	37.626.4–51.8
2035	162141.7–184.2	37.625.2–49.5
2036	160.5143.6–179.4	3826.5–50.5
2037	165145.8–184.5	39.928.2–53.4
2038	167.1146.5–186.7	41.528.4–54.2
2039	164.5143.9–186	39.227–52.9
2040	165.9146.2–190.1	38.125.6–55.6
2041	167.9146.3–189.3	40.227.4–54.3
2042	167.7146–194.3	4229–56.4
2043	167.3145.5–190.8	42.128.2–58.4
2044	168.2148.2–189.9	41.929.5–57.8
2045	170.7149.1–192.3	42.728.2–59
2046	175.3150–198.6	44.130–59.5
2047	176.9151.8–197.5	44.630.7–61.2
2048	177.5155.4–199.1	4531.9–61.5
2049	177.5157.9–198.4	45.632.3–61.4
2050	176.4153.8–199	46.931–63.6
2051	176.6155.3–199.7	47.532–65
2052	177155.6–200.7	48.332.7–64.3
2053	176.7154.2–201.6	45.733.7–62.1
2054	177.6156.9–201.1	4833.3–64.3
2055	180.6155.2–202.3	46.833–68.4
2056	177.3155–205.4	47.933.2–64.8
2057	180.3159.3–205.5	50.232.6–68.9
2058	182.6153.7–209.4	47.934–66.4
2059	185.7160.1–210.6	51.333.1–66.9
2060	185.9160.3–210.4	51.936–69.9
2061	183.3158.3–211.7	50.534.8–71.3
2062	183.8155.4–213	50.532.7–71
2063	184.5159.1–208.6	50.434.3–69.7
2064	186.7160.6–207.2	5134.1–67.7
2065	183.7162.4–212.9	50.433.6–70.2
2066	187.1165.4–210.1	5335.7–72.4
2067	187.1160.7–214.5	50.634.8–70.4
2068	187.6160.4–215.8	54.837.8–72.5
2069	187.8165.4–215.8	54.339.1–73.4
2070	187.9161.6–216.9	54.337.2–73.3
2071	192.7165.2–219.5	55.837.9–76.9
2072	193.6167.4–214.5	5639.4–78.6
2073	193.3169.7–218.7	60.443.4–80.3
2074	188.5163.9–219	57.439.1–75.3
2075	191.9162.7–218.6	56.137.7–76
2076	195166.9–218.9	58.538.4–75.3
2077	194.1169.3–223.3	57.341–80.5
2078	192.1168.4–218.6	5639.5–79
2079	193.4166.6–220.9	57.639.3–78
2080	196.1169.2–222.4	59.540.3–80.9
2081	194.6171–221.4	5841.5–79.6
2082	195.4168.8–219.9	58.839.7–77.7
2083	194.6168.2–228.7	60.839.1–82.9
2084	198.5170.7–224.2	62.540.4–82.9
2085	198.4173.1–226.3	60.741.3–87.6
2086	198.6172.3–228.4	60.542.1–83.3
2087	199170.6–226.6	57.941–82.9
2088	199170.7–227.7	64.243.4–85.3
2089	198.6171.2–226.2	61.541.3–81.2
2090	198.6173.4–227.7	61.641.5–86.8
2091	203.6171.9–232.1	63.341.6–86.3
2092	200.7172.5–229.7	63.144.9–84.8
2093	201.4175.2–228.6	62.443.2–86.1
2094	200.2174–228.9	63.145.6–87.4
2095	203.9175.7–231.9	65.342.6–91.7
2096	199.1170.5–230.8	6142.7–90.1
2097	198.4171.8–229.3	58.841.2–84.6
2098	198.7172.1–231.5	65.143.8–89.8
2099	201.8172.8–233.3	64.345–87
2100	201.7175.1–231.8	58.742–88.2

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time