Italy vs Kenya: Days above 35 °C

Days above 35 °C in 2014: 0.5 days in Italy and 48.1 days in Kenya, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Kenya, by 47.6 days, or 98 times that in Italy.

Watch it change on the map

days a year · CMIP6

ItalyKenyaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Kenya has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Italy at 9.6 days and Kenya at 103.7 days in 2100.

Every year

days a year · CMIP6

Year	Italy	Kenya
2014	0.5	48.1
2013	0.2	46.4
2012	0.2	45.5
2011	0.3	46.4
2010	0.4	45.5
2009	0.3	40.9
2008	0.3	40.8
2007	0.1	39.2
2006	0.2	42
2005	0.1	42.9
2004	0.3	41.8
2003	0.2	41
2002	0.1	42.7
2001	0.1	43.4
2000	0.2	39.6
1999	0.1	40.9
1998	0.1	39.7
1997	0.1	38.8
1996	0.1	35.3
1995	0.1	34.3
1994	0	32.9
1993	0	28.5
1992	0	28.2
1991	0	35.1
1990	0.1	34.1
1989	0	34.5
1988	0	33.9
1987	0	35.9
1986	0	35.5
1985	0	31.2
1984	0	31
1983	0	30.2
1982	0	33.9
1981	0	34.6
1980	0.1	36.4
1979	0	34.4
1978	0	31.8
1977	0	30.5
1976	0	28.6
1975	0	29.7
1974	0	30.4
1973	0	29.1
1972	0	28.4
1971	0	28.1
1970	0	27
1969	0.1	29
1968	0	25.7
1967	0	26.9
1966	0	25.8
1965	0	24.4
1964	0.1	20.8
1963	0	25.7
1962	0	28.8
1961	0	30.9
1960	0	29.5
1959	0.1	30.4
1958	0	28
1957	0	30.7
1956	0	28.9
1955	0.1	30.2
1954	0	30
1953	0.1	31
1952	0.1	29.8
1951	0	30.1
1950	0.1	30.8

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Italy	Kenya
2015	0.40.1–1.7	50.131.1–66.1
2016	0.40–2.6	49.230.5–67.3
2017	0.60–3.2	50.228.4–68.7
2018	0.60.1–3.2	5033.4–67.3
2019	0.80.1–2.4	49.431.2–67.4
2020	0.60–3	53.533.4–75.7
2021	0.70–3.2	52.434.3–69.5
2022	0.90–4.3	51.825–70.5
2023	0.70–3.4	55.535.3–80
2024	1.10–3.9	60.738.5–78.7
2025	0.90.1–4.3	55.236.8–74.4
2026	10.1–6.1	55.435.2–86.2
2027	0.90–3.8	5634.2–77.5
2028	1.40.2–5	56.731.5–80.6
2029	1.20.1–5.5	59.535.1–79.7
2030	0.90.1–4.8	57.940.5–79.9
2031	10.1–4.1	64.244.3–83.9
2032	1.20.3–4.7	58.839.6–81.3
2033	1.60–4.3	63.639.2–87.1
2034	1.70.2–6.9	62.339.2–84.6
2035	1.90.2–6.5	61.636.8–84.1
2036	1.90.2–7	59.840.3–84.7
2037	1.90.4–6.2	63.740.4–91.7
2038	1.90.2–7.5	63.235.1–89.5
2039	20.3–5.6	65.540.6–88.4
2040	2.20.3–6.7	64.144.3–84.7
2041	2.10.3–7	69.847.4–98.8
2042	1.80.2–6.9	71.147–95.3
2043	2.10.2–5.7	66.640.7–91.1
2044	2.40.4–6.4	69.243–91.5
2045	2.10.2–6.2	7049.2–100.3
2046	2.70.5–8.8	76.643.2–107.2
2047	3.30.9–8.1	74.249.2–103.8
2048	2.10.1–9.3	72.847.4–102.8
2049	2.80.3–9.4	78.548.6–107.8
2050	3.80.8–8.5	7250–107.2
2051	3.20.6–11.6	79.352.5–111
2052	2.90.2–9.6	79.550.7–104.4
2053	30.6–9.8	72.944.3–104.5
2054	3.70.4–11.5	73.142.1–99.6
2055	3.30.3–10.2	80.450.6–105.6
2056	3.40.9–11.1	76.247–111.2
2057	3.10.6–8.5	81.352.9–109.1
2058	4.80.6–12.3	78.950–112.4
2059	4.20.6–12.5	83.351.3–115.7
2060	3.80.9–11.3	85.749.3–116.5
2061	4.51.2–10.3	85.354.7–115.1
2062	4.50.8–10.7	85.355.1–116.5
2063	5.70.8–13.2	84.254.2–110.1
2064	5.51–13.9	87.448.2–113.7
2065	4.80.9–13	86.855.1–123.7
2066	4.40.6–12.7	83.857–115
2067	7.31.3–17	8955.6–119.5
2068	5.71.2–13.8	87.751.4–117.1
2069	6.11.5–11.5	8653.8–118.3
2070	5.71.3–15.6	86.150.8–121
2071	7.11.2–15.6	91.757.9–123.6
2072	6.52.1–14.7	91.461.3–123.1
2073	4.51.1–11.8	91.458.5–127.3
2074	5.30.7–12.8	87.855.2–124.3
2075	5.81.3–18	89.853.7–127.4
2076	5.81–15.9	97.664.7–134.6
2077	5.81.5–14.7	97.755.7–131.4
2078	5.41.4–20.3	90.260.9–124.7
2079	6.71.2–20	9463.2–125.8
2080	6.41.8–17.3	96.157.8–132.4
2081	61.5–16.9	99.766.8–136.7
2082	9.42.3–18.9	99.458.5–131.7
2083	6.11.1–15.3	100.263.9–137.5
2084	7.72.6–20.2	9967.9–133.8
2085	8.22.7–17.8	99.259.2–137.4
2086	8.12.4–18.1	104.457.4–142.5
2087	8.12–20	99.762.4–134.4
2088	10.63.1–22.1	98.761–135.2
2089	9.23–22.4	97.966–126.9
2090	8.62.9–17.7	101.468.5–136
2091	9.73–19.4	104.465.5–141.4
2092	6.70.5–17.5	99.759.8–137.8
2093	6.42–17.4	105.971.9–140.7
2094	7.62–19.9	107.369.1–137.3
2095	9.71.3–19.2	106.367.5–142.4
2096	7.61.6–21.4	105.461.5–142.2
2097	8.61.8–18.9	105.161.4–139.2
2098	9.92.4–19	104.861.9–140.8
2099	9.51.7–19.7	103.362.5–145.4
2100	9.62.4–20.4	103.757.3–139.4

Each country on its own

Good to know

Days in a year whose highest temperature passes 35 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Italy vs Kenya: Days above 35 °C

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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