Malawi vs South Africa: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 138.1 nights in Malawi and 27.1 nights in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Malawi, by 111 nights, or 5.09 times that in South Africa.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

MalawiSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Malawi has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Malawi at 213.3 nights and South Africa at 58.7 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Malawi	South Africa
2014	138.1	27.1
2013	138.9	28.3
2012	137.4	27.9
2011	136.6	26.1
2010	132.4	26
2009	131.4	25.8
2008	130.8	24.8
2007	132.8	24.7
2006	129.8	25.5
2005	129.5	25.3
2004	133.4	25.8
2003	132.5	25.1
2002	130.3	25
2001	134	24.5
2000	126.6	23.3
1999	124.8	23
1998	127.1	23.4
1997	124.2	22.5
1996	121.3	20.4
1995	120.9	19.3
1994	118.4	20
1993	113.8	18.1
1992	114.1	18.1
1991	120.9	22.3
1990	123.8	22.7
1989	120.5	22
1988	120.8	21.2
1987	118.8	21.9
1986	121.1	21
1985	115.7	18.9
1984	116.2	20
1983	115.5	19
1982	115.1	20.3
1981	119	20
1980	116.9	21.2
1979	117.7	19.9
1978	114.8	19.8
1977	117.2	19.2
1976	114	19.2
1975	114	18.8
1974	115.2	19.7
1973	114.7	19.6
1972	113.8	19
1971	114.1	19.1
1970	115.8	18.6
1969	114.3	18.7
1968	110	17.8
1967	109.8	17.5
1966	111	17.8
1965	111.5	17.2
1964	106.3	14.9
1963	107.5	16.5
1962	114.7	19.6
1961	116	19.7
1960	117.4	19.8
1959	115.6	18.5
1958	116.4	19.3
1957	114.6	19.4
1956	111.4	18
1955	115.2	19.5
1954	113.9	18.4
1953	113	18.4
1952	113.5	19.3
1951	113.5	18.9
1950	112.8	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Malawi	South Africa
2015	145.7126.7–164.3	28.620–39.5
2016	139.8122.6–157.4	26.817.8–37.9
2017	143.6127–161.8	28.919.6–37.8
2018	143.1124.6–162.6	29.620.6–40.6
2019	143.8128.3–161.4	29.820.8–41.5
2020	145127.3–165.8	29.518.9–39.1
2021	145.3128–163.6	31.121.4–42.9
2022	151130.1–169.1	3223.7–43.1
2023	149.2129.5–171.2	31.922.9–41.8
2024	152.4130–172.6	3324–45.6
2025	151.1129.7–170.4	31.920.7–44.5
2026	151.1126.2–173.8	34.521.9–46.9
2027	154.4135.1–173.1	34.423–47.7
2028	155.5134.6–174	33.522.9–46
2029	159.8139.2–178.5	36.226.5–48.3
2030	155.6138.7–174.5	36.124.9–49
2031	161.1143.4–177.6	36.324.5–50.3
2032	160.8141.3–181.3	36.424.5–49.2
2033	161.3135.6–179.2	36.924.5–48.3
2034	160.9138.9–185	37.626.4–51.8
2035	164.3140.4–189.5	37.625.2–49.5
2036	163.8137.6–182.5	3826.5–50.5
2037	166.9144.6–189.2	39.928.2–53.4
2038	172.2148.4–191.2	41.528.4–54.2
2039	164.8147.3–188.2	39.227–52.9
2040	164.4146.4–189.7	38.125.6–55.6
2041	169.3143.7–192.5	40.227.4–54.3
2042	169.8146.3–197.8	4229–56.4
2043	167.5147.1–193.2	42.128.2–58.4
2044	172.6148.3–197	41.929.5–57.8
2045	170.4153.1–194.7	42.728.2–59
2046	176.3151.2–203.1	44.130–59.5
2047	178.7157.8–200.9	44.630.7–61.2
2048	180.7158.9–204.1	4531.9–61.5
2049	176.7154–205.4	45.632.3–61.4
2050	180.4155.2–204.9	46.931–63.6
2051	182.9162.1–207.4	47.532–65
2052	184.9163.2–209.6	48.332.7–64.3
2053	177.2149.6–207.4	45.733.7–62.1
2054	185.1157.1–208	4833.3–64.3
2055	186.1159.2–212.6	46.833–68.4
2056	184.6158.5–214.3	47.933.2–64.8
2057	184.7159.3–212.3	50.232.6–68.9
2058	188.5163.8–214.7	47.934–66.4
2059	189.8166.9–218.5	51.333.1–66.9
2060	192.6163.4–218.1	51.936–69.9
2061	186.4158.8–216.8	50.534.8–71.3
2062	192.3163.9–218.6	50.532.7–71
2063	189.2165.2–220.3	50.434.3–69.7
2064	197161.3–218	5134.1–67.7
2065	193.1165.8–225.2	50.433.6–70.2
2066	201170.1–224.7	5335.7–72.4
2067	193.1164.2–223.7	50.634.8–70.4
2068	198.6163.7–227.1	54.837.8–72.5
2069	199.4165.8–225	54.339.1–73.4
2070	198.7168–226.7	54.337.2–73.3
2071	199.3167.9–233.5	55.837.9–76.9
2072	202.3173.2–226.2	5639.4–78.6
2073	205.4168.2–233.4	60.443.4–80.3
2074	198.2175.4–227.7	57.439.1–75.3
2075	199.6168.9–228.3	56.137.7–76
2076	198.8169.8–225.2	58.538.4–75.3
2077	202172.2–231.2	57.341–80.5
2078	203.5175.8–232.1	5639.5–79
2079	203.6172.2–236.1	57.639.3–78
2080	204.7172.2–234.3	59.540.3–80.9
2081	202.2174.9–231.3	5841.5–79.6
2082	204.3178.3–228.6	58.839.7–77.7
2083	205.8170.7–238.3	60.839.1–82.9
2084	208.1175.9–235.6	62.540.4–82.9
2085	211.1179.4–241	60.741.3–87.6
2086	203.3175.4–237	60.542.1–83.3
2087	205.3181.2–237.7	57.941–82.9
2088	211.6174.7–240.6	64.243.4–85.3
2089	208.9180.5–237.8	61.541.3–81.2
2090	209.4173.4–243	61.641.5–86.8
2091	214.3179.7–244.8	63.341.6–86.3
2092	213.2176.8–242.3	63.144.9–84.8
2093	212.5177.8–242.2	62.443.2–86.1
2094	211.8179.7–241.5	63.145.6–87.4
2095	216.9185–243.8	65.342.6–91.7
2096	213.1182–247.6	6142.7–90.1
2097	210.8174.9–242.1	58.841.2–84.6
2098	214.4181.5–242.2	65.143.8–89.8
2099	213.5181.9–244.1	64.345–87
2100	213.3181.5–246.3	58.742–88.2

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Malawi vs South Africa: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

Every year

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