Mexico vs South Africa: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 103.7 nights in Mexico and 27.1 nights in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Mexico, by 76.6 nights, or 3.83 times that in South Africa.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

MexicoSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Mexico has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Mexico at 142.8 nights and South Africa at 58.7 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Mexico	South Africa
2014	103.7	27.1
2013	103.9	28.3
2012	102.8	27.9
2011	102.9	26.1
2010	101.5	26
2009	101.8	25.8
2008	100.1	24.8
2007	99.1	24.7
2006	99.8	25.5
2005	99.5	25.3
2004	99.4	25.8
2003	98.3	25.1
2002	99.1	25
2001	98.7	24.5
2000	97.9	23.3
1999	96.6	23
1998	95.8	23.4
1997	95.9	22.5
1996	93.8	20.4
1995	92.7	19.3
1994	90.7	20
1993	89	18.1
1992	88.5	18.1
1991	93.4	22.3
1990	94.9	22.7
1989	93	22
1988	92.1	21.2
1987	92	21.9
1986	90.2	21
1985	90	18.9
1984	88	20
1983	86.7	19
1982	88.7	20.3
1981	91.5	20
1980	90.1	21.2
1979	90.8	19.9
1978	89	19.8
1977	89	19.2
1976	89.1	19.2
1975	86.8	18.8
1974	87.9	19.7
1973	88.6	19.6
1972	87.7	19
1971	86.8	19.1
1970	86.1	18.6
1969	87.5	18.7
1968	87.1	17.8
1967	86.7	17.5
1966	86.4	17.8
1965	84.9	17.2
1964	84.7	14.9
1963	87.1	16.5
1962	88	19.6
1961	89.5	19.7
1960	89.7	19.8
1959	89.6	18.5
1958	89.1	19.3
1957	89	19.4
1956	88.5	18
1955	88.2	19.5
1954	88.4	18.4
1953	88.6	18.4
1952	87.8	19.3
1951	89.4	18.9
1950	88.1	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Mexico	South Africa
2015	106.192.9–118.4	28.620–39.5
2016	107.695–120	26.817.8–37.9
2017	108.696.3–119.7	28.919.6–37.8
2018	10997.1–120.4	29.620.6–40.6
2019	110.396.4–123	29.820.8–41.5
2020	109.696.8–121.8	29.518.9–39.1
2021	111.296.9–124.1	31.121.4–42.9
2022	109.796–121.7	3223.7–43.1
2023	111.898.6–125.3	31.922.9–41.8
2024	112.298.2–126.2	3324–45.6
2025	11298.8–125.8	31.920.7–44.5
2026	113.999.5–126.4	34.521.9–46.9
2027	112.999.5–128.3	34.423–47.7
2028	115.2101.9–127.9	33.522.9–46
2029	115.6101.9–127.9	36.226.5–48.3
2030	115.9101.7–128.4	36.124.9–49
2031	116.1100.9–129.9	36.324.5–50.3
2032	116.1102.5–129.1	36.424.5–49.2
2033	117.5102.5–131.1	36.924.5–48.3
2034	117.2104.1–130.3	37.626.4–51.8
2035	116.4103.1–130.3	37.625.2–49.5
2036	117.8105.1–131	3826.5–50.5
2037	118.6104.3–131.7	39.928.2–53.4
2038	121107.5–133.4	41.528.4–54.2
2039	121.3107–135.6	39.227–52.9
2040	121.9108.1–135.1	38.125.6–55.6
2041	121.3105.3–134.6	40.227.4–54.3
2042	122.7107.7–137.1	4229–56.4
2043	122.4108.1–137.5	42.128.2–58.4
2044	121.9108–135.6	41.929.5–57.8
2045	123.1108.8–139.2	42.728.2–59
2046	123.8109.9–139.4	44.130–59.5
2047	125.6111.9–139.4	44.630.7–61.2
2048	126.3113–140.3	4531.9–61.5
2049	127111.2–140.8	45.632.3–61.4
2050	128.1112.6–142.5	46.931–63.6
2051	127.2113.4–140.8	47.532–65
2052	126.2112.5–141.1	48.332.7–64.3
2053	128.4111.5–142.7	45.733.7–62.1
2054	128.1113.1–142.3	4833.3–64.3
2055	129114.4–144.7	46.833–68.4
2056	129.5114.3–143.8	47.933.2–64.8
2057	130.3113.5–145.9	50.232.6–68.9
2058	128.8114.1–144.5	47.934–66.4
2059	129.5114.5–144.5	51.333.1–66.9
2060	131.4115.5–146.5	51.936–69.9
2061	131.3118.4–146.8	50.534.8–71.3
2062	130.8115.1–146.3	50.532.7–71
2063	131.2115.6–147.9	50.434.3–69.7
2064	132.2116.5–147.8	5134.1–67.7
2065	133.1115.8–148.6	50.433.6–70.2
2066	133.3117.2–149.4	5335.7–72.4
2067	133.3117–150.3	50.634.8–70.4
2068	134.6117.4–150.5	54.837.8–72.5
2069	134.4117.8–150.9	54.339.1–73.4
2070	134.2116.7–151.8	54.337.2–73.3
2071	136.3120.8–152.7	55.837.9–76.9
2072	137.2119.9–153.1	5639.4–78.6
2073	136.1119.1–153.6	60.443.4–80.3
2074	136119.7–152.2	57.439.1–75.3
2075	135.2118.5–151.8	56.137.7–76
2076	136.3117.4–154.7	58.538.4–75.3
2077	136.8119.6–152.8	57.341–80.5
2078	137.1118.3–154.2	5639.5–79
2079	138.1121.3–157.1	57.639.3–78
2080	137.6120.5–157.9	59.540.3–80.9
2081	137.8120.7–154.7	5841.5–79.6
2082	138.7121.6–155.2	58.839.7–77.7
2083	139.2119.3–158.8	60.839.1–82.9
2084	140.3123.4–157.5	62.540.4–82.9
2085	139.2120.9–157.2	60.741.3–87.6
2086	139.8121–157.8	60.542.1–83.3
2087	139.5121.5–157.4	57.941–82.9
2088	141121.8–159.9	64.243.4–85.3
2089	140.4121.7–158.9	61.541.3–81.2
2090	141.2123–160.7	61.641.5–86.8
2091	141.8123–161.6	63.341.6–86.3
2092	141.3122.5–159.3	63.144.9–84.8
2093	141.4124.3–161	62.443.2–86.1
2094	142123.3–159.6	63.145.6–87.4
2095	143.5124–160.7	65.342.6–91.7
2096	142.3125–161.3	6142.7–90.1
2097	141.2123.2–160	58.841.2–84.6
2098	142.2122.5–162	65.143.8–89.8
2099	141.8122.4–160.7	64.345–87
2100	142.8124.3–160.8	58.742–88.2

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Mexico vs South Africa: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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