Namibia vs South Africa: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 52.7 nights in Namibia and 27.1 nights in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Namibia, by 25.6 nights, or 1.94 times that in South Africa.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

NamibiaSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Namibia has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Namibia at 123.3 nights and South Africa at 58.7 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Namibia	South Africa
2014	52.7	27.1
2013	55.8	28.3
2012	56.6	27.9
2011	50.9	26.1
2010	50.6	26
2009	50.7	25.8
2008	46.8	24.8
2007	47.3	24.7
2006	48	25.5
2005	48.4	25.3
2004	52.1	25.8
2003	49.9	25.1
2002	49	25
2001	47.8	24.5
2000	44.1	23.3
1999	41.7	23
1998	45.2	23.4
1997	42.5	22.5
1996	36.2	20.4
1995	34.7	19.3
1994	35.7	20
1993	30.3	18.1
1992	28.9	18.1
1991	42	22.3
1990	41.2	22.7
1989	39.4	22
1988	35.9	21.2
1987	37.6	21.9
1986	37	21
1985	32.5	18.9
1984	32.4	20
1983	31.6	19
1982	38	20.3
1981	35.1	20
1980	34.7	21.2
1979	32.7	19.9
1978	32.6	19.8
1977	31.2	19.2
1976	30.5	19.2
1975	31.3	18.8
1974	31.2	19.7
1973	32.2	19.6
1972	30.8	19
1971	30.3	19.1
1970	30.2	18.6
1969	30.3	18.7
1968	28	17.8
1967	26.8	17.5
1966	28.4	17.8
1965	27.7	17.2
1964	22.8	14.9
1963	25	16.5
1962	32.6	19.6
1961	32.3	19.7
1960	32.7	19.8
1959	32.6	18.5
1958	32.2	19.3
1957	34.1	19.4
1956	29.1	18
1955	32.3	19.5
1954	29.3	18.4
1953	30.1	18.4
1952	31.7	19.3
1951	31.1	18.9
1950	29.5	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Namibia	South Africa
2015	56.535.1–81	28.620–39.5
2016	53.930–77.5	26.817.8–37.9
2017	57.432.9–77.8	28.919.6–37.8
2018	6133.9–84.3	29.620.6–40.6
2019	57.333.3–83.7	29.820.8–41.5
2020	6433.5–86.5	29.518.9–39.1
2021	6441.5–85.6	31.121.4–42.9
2022	69.446.9–95.6	3223.7–43.1
2023	67.846.3–87.4	31.922.9–41.8
2024	69.243.8–91.5	3324–45.6
2025	66.338.8–95.4	31.920.7–44.5
2026	72.941.8–97.8	34.521.9–46.9
2027	73.949.9–97.4	34.423–47.7
2028	73.846.6–100.6	33.522.9–46
2029	79.755.4–100.3	36.226.5–48.3
2030	75.249.3–99.4	36.124.9–49
2031	77.947.3–100.9	36.324.5–50.3
2032	82.154.2–107	36.424.5–49.2
2033	81.956.4–104.8	36.924.5–48.3
2034	80.153.2–110.1	37.626.4–51.8
2035	80.152.1–105.9	37.625.2–49.5
2036	81.557.7–103.8	3826.5–50.5
2037	85.859.2–109.5	39.928.2–53.4
2038	87.665.4–112.5	41.528.4–54.2
2039	81.654.6–108	39.227–52.9
2040	81.555.5–112.9	38.125.6–55.6
2041	8862.7–111.6	40.227.4–54.3
2042	84.761.3–117.5	4229–56.4
2043	85.161.2–116.5	42.128.2–58.4
2044	90.661.4–118	41.929.5–57.8
2045	88.661.9–116.3	42.728.2–59
2046	94.869.3–122.8	44.130–59.5
2047	98.570.3–123.5	44.630.7–61.2
2048	100.170.3–124.7	4531.9–61.5
2049	101.775.1–125.9	45.632.3–61.4
2050	9971.5–127.8	46.931–63.6
2051	100.771.4–127.7	47.532–65
2052	100.275.5–132.6	48.332.7–64.3
2053	100.876.7–126.8	45.733.7–62.1
2054	104.773.3–132.4	4833.3–64.3
2055	100.174–134.9	46.833–68.4
2056	102.476.4–133.3	47.933.2–64.8
2057	106.978.6–134.6	50.232.6–68.9
2058	104.570.2–135.2	47.934–66.4
2059	111.773.5–144.1	51.333.1–66.9
2060	10982.3–138.2	51.936–69.9
2061	11177.9–141.8	50.534.8–71.3
2062	111.575.4–137.7	50.532.7–71
2063	110.879.9–142.6	50.434.3–69.7
2064	110.679.7–134.3	5134.1–67.7
2065	10978–140.6	50.433.6–70.2
2066	114.280.8–143.7	5335.7–72.4
2067	109.378.1–141.3	50.634.8–70.4
2068	117.582.7–143.5	54.837.8–72.5
2069	114.286.1–141.4	54.339.1–73.4
2070	111.580.6–145.7	54.337.2–73.3
2071	117.289–151.6	55.837.9–76.9
2072	120.389.5–149.3	5639.4–78.6
2073	124.799.2–148.4	60.443.4–80.3
2074	120.883.8–151.3	57.439.1–75.3
2075	115.485.4–147.8	56.137.7–76
2076	120.286.6–149.1	58.538.4–75.3
2077	124.895.6–152.4	57.341–80.5
2078	119.291.1–151.2	5639.5–79
2079	126.886.9–153.9	57.639.3–78
2080	123.891.1–151.9	59.540.3–80.9
2081	124.295.7–151.7	5841.5–79.6
2082	120.993.2–149.7	58.839.7–77.7
2083	119.181.5–153.9	60.839.1–82.9
2084	125.996.3–155.2	62.540.4–82.9
2085	12695.5–159.3	60.741.3–87.6
2086	123.295.9–160	60.542.1–83.3
2087	12397.9–158	57.941–82.9
2088	128.197.6–157.1	64.243.4–85.3
2089	125.596.5–153.3	61.541.3–81.2
2090	127.199–162.3	61.641.5–86.8
2091	129.495.7–162.8	63.341.6–86.3
2092	131.4103–159.2	63.144.9–84.8
2093	125.897.4–160.4	62.443.2–86.1
2094	127.1100.7–161.5	63.145.6–87.4
2095	132.196.5–163.6	65.342.6–91.7
2096	130.293.7–163.5	6142.7–90.1
2097	126.292–159.9	58.841.2–84.6
2098	132.494.1–167.1	65.143.8–89.8
2099	130.295–164.7	64.345–87
2100	123.395.9–159.7	58.742–88.2

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Namibia vs South Africa: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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Namibia vs South Africa

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