South Africa vs Zambia: Days above 35 °C

Days above 35 °C in 2014: 13.2 days in South Africa and 9.7 days in Zambia, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in South Africa, by 3.5 days, or 1.36 times that in Zambia.

Watch it change on the map

days a year · CMIP6

South AfricaZambiaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

South Africa has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts South Africa at 40 days and Zambia at 45 days in 2100.

Every year

days a year · CMIP6

Year	South Africa	Zambia
2014	13.2	9.7
2013	15.2	10.6
2012	14.3	9.9
2011	11.7	8.8
2010	12.5	9.9
2009	13.2	8.5
2008	12.3	8.4
2007	12	8.2
2006	11.9	7.6
2005	13.3	8.2
2004	13.9	10.2
2003	12.6	8.8
2002	12.6	8.8
2001	11.1	9.5
2000	11.8	9
1999	11	7.6
1998	12.1	7.8
1997	11.3	6.6
1996	9.4	5.6
1995	8.3	6.2
1994	8.5	5.8
1993	7.8	4.1
1992	7.1	4.7
1991	11.1	4.9
1990	10.1	6
1989	11.5	6.2
1988	9.4	6.4
1987	11.5	6.5
1986	10.2	6.3
1985	8.7	4.9
1984	8.7	5.1
1983	8.6	5
1982	10.5	4.8
1981	9.7	5.8
1980	10.3	5.6
1979	9.4	5.3
1978	9.5	5
1977	9.3	5.4
1976	9	4.1
1975	9.3	4.8
1974	8.8	5.7
1973	9.5	5.7
1972	8.4	4.1
1971	8.7	4.7
1970	8.2	5.1
1969	8.9	5.1
1968	8.4	4.6
1967	6.9	4.1
1966	7.8	3.7
1965	7.9	4.8
1964	6.4	3.4
1963	7	3.4
1962	8.9	5
1961	10.5	5.3
1960	9.7	5.2
1959	8.9	5.5
1958	9.3	5.2
1957	10.3	5.4
1956	7.9	4.2
1955	10.3	5.4
1954	9.1	5.2
1953	7.8	4.8
1952	9	5.8
1951	8.4	4.2
1950	8.7	5.3

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	South Africa	Zambia
2015	14.76.8–24	12.45.1–21
2016	13.46.3–22.2	114.9–19.9
2017	15.27.7–24.6	115.1–18.3
2018	179.7–28	11.44.9–21.2
2019	14.67.1–24.5	12.16.3–19.3
2020	15.77.4–23.5	14.37.2–23.4
2021	17.99.4–27	12.65.9–22.1
2022	189.8–29	15.37–23.7
2023	18.69.9–27.1	17.510.3–26.3
2024	17.89.8–28	15.88.7–24.8
2025	16.57.5–29.6	14.76.5–26.2
2026	20.19.3–29.4	169.1–25.4
2027	19.910.5–32.8	17.78.9–29.2
2028	19.110.6–33.2	16.28.1–27.4
2029	21.412.9–33.6	18.69.5–28.9
2030	21.19.6–33.9	17.310–31.1
2031	20.79.9–35.4	16.97.7–30.4
2032	2110.9–34.8	16.78.3–28.7
2033	22.612.2–34.2	209.5–32.1
2034	24.615–35.1	22.69.4–38.5
2035	20.911.7–31.3	19.310.1–35.5
2036	21.111.9–32.2	18.88.7–32.8
2037	23.412.6–35.2	20.79.8–34.6
2038	26.216–36.7	20.311.6–36.7
2039	22.611.4–35.9	19.310.6–32
2040	21.510.9–35.4	18.89.3–34.6
2041	23.213.2–35.8	22.310.6–36.6
2042	25.214.3–39.6	22.113.1–34.8
2043	25.613.4–39.9	239.6–38.3
2044	26.113.1–41.6	21.910.3–36.4
2045	26.813.1–40.3	22.310.5–35.5
2046	25.914.5–40.8	25.912.8–39.6
2047	26.713.7–41.4	24.314.1–39.3
2048	29.215.6–45.4	26.414.1–40.8
2049	29.117.3–44.7	25.212.7–41
2050	29.815.7–48.6	29.514.9–44
2051	27.913.6–45.2	29.715.7–46.8
2052	31.918.3–46.8	29.116.4–47.8
2053	28.318.6–43.2	27.713.4–42.1
2054	30.717.3–50.1	31.514–51.7
2055	2917.8–48	31.314.6–46.2
2056	29.916–45.3	28.914–46.4
2057	3117.4–50.1	28.414.3–50.5
2058	31.115.7–46	3014–47.4
2059	3216.1–49.9	34.319–50.7
2060	33.419.8–49.7	32.614.6–53.4
2061	32.718.1–51.1	33.215.2–53.9
2062	31.317.7–52.6	31.917–51.6
2063	32.317.4–50.7	30.715.7–50
2064	31.817.7–47.6	32.716.6–49.6
2065	31.716.2–50.7	34.217–58.2
2066	34.318.4–55.3	34.715.5–56.6
2067	32.617.2–52.4	30.417.4–53.3
2068	33.819.2–54.3	32.117.6–49.7
2069	34.621.3–52.4	35.916.2–53.5
2070	32.819.3–51.1	34.719.7–57
2071	35.320.8–55.8	3618.1–56.3
2072	37.820.3–54.6	34.920–53.3
2073	4425.6–62.1	4121.4–63.3
2074	38.320.7–55.8	34.820.5–59.6
2075	34.218.7–53.1	33.117.4–55.1
2076	38.822.9–57.5	36.317.9–62.2
2077	39.124.2–60.3	3720.5–59.7
2078	35.521.6–53.4	38.819.7–59.6
2079	40.522.9–59.7	39.420.8–63.6
2080	40.523.4–59	3820.3–64.5
2081	38.523.8–59.9	36.921–63.8
2082	38.622.5–58.2	36.522.8–61.1
2083	38.518.7–62.9	40.819.1–63.3
2084	39.720.6–58.4	41.121–60.8
2085	4021.5–65.8	44.827.6–70.2
2086	40.823–63.7	36.821.5–66
2087	38.324.6–58.6	4321.7–67.6
2088	42.222.6–66.3	44.521.8–68.5
2089	41.624.2–59.1	45.726.7–62.3
2090	42.326.1–66.4	4423.3–67.1
2091	43.324.2–63.6	41.922.7–72.7
2092	43.928–61.6	44.824.2–68.9
2093	37.521.3–63.4	41.921.7–68.5
2094	41.325.4–65.9	46.826–69.9
2095	43.522.9–70.2	4425.8–65.7
2096	41.224.1–66.8	4221.1–67.9
2097	37.723.7–60.9	40.420–65.5
2098	46.425.1–71.4	42.823.4–67.6
2099	42.525.1–64.8	44.621.7–77
2100	4022.2–64.5	4523.4–66

Each country on its own

Good to know

Days in a year whose highest temperature passes 35 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

South Africa vs Zambia: Days above 35 °C

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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