Tropical nights in Japan

Tropical nights in Japan: 49.9 nights in 1950 and 58.6 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 58.6 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +8.7 nights
Projected, 2100: 87.7 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 87.7 nights in 2100, between 69.2 nights and 106.2 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 59.9 nights in 2013, the lowest 41.9 nights in 1983.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Japan
2014	58.6
2013	59.9
2012	59.3
2011	57.9
2010	59.6
2009	57.6
2008	57.3
2007	56.6
2006	57.5
2005	57.2
2004	56.7
2003	56.1
2002	56
2001	54.2
2000	53.8
1999	55.3
1998	52.4
1997	52.4
1996	52.9
1995	49.7
1994	49.5
1993	45.4
1992	45.1
1991	49.4
1990	50.7
1989	51.4
1988	48.1
1987	47.7
1986	46.1
1985	46.7
1984	44.8
1983	41.9
1982	46.4
1981	45.9
1980	46.5
1979	46.7
1978	47.6
1977	45.8
1976	46
1975	46.9
1974	45.6
1973	44.3
1972	45.8
1971	44.8
1970	44
1969	46.9
1968	45.7
1967	48.3
1966	45.9
1965	45.8
1964	44.9
1963	48.3
1962	45.6
1961	48.9
1960	46.4
1959	46.9
1958	48.8
1957	49.2
1956	50.6
1955	47.9
1954	46.9
1953	49.2
1952	49.5
1951	46.2
1950	49.9

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Japan
2015	60.649.3–74.4
2016	61.547.9–73.9
2017	62.352.1–75.8
2018	60.548.5–73.8
2019	64.152.1–80.1
2020	63.151–74.5
2021	62.348.5–78.8
2022	64.653.8–76.5
2023	65.951.7–78
2024	65.352.9–80.7
2025	65.652.8–80.4
2026	65.554.2–81.2
2027	66.452.9–79.5
2028	65.352.4–80.1
2029	68.555–80.4
2030	66.552.3–80.6
2031	66.554.7–80
2032	6650.8–82.1
2033	70.354.7–84.8
2034	68.553.9–81.7
2035	72.960.4–84.6
2036	72.556.1–89.7
2037	67.656.7–82.5
2038	70.558.6–83.8
2039	70.455.6–85.7
2040	73.657.4–89.3
2041	72.955.6–88.5
2042	71.258.1–86.4
2043	73.357.9–88.1
2044	72.657.8–85.5
2045	72.959.5–86.7
2046	76.261–90.3
2047	75.656.6–89.3
2048	74.858.5–89.4
2049	74.359.7–90.8
2050	75.160.8–89.3
2051	75.861.1–92.4
2052	74.557.9–90.4
2053	78.559.6–91.6
2054	75.959.6–89.3
2055	76.862.2–95.1
2056	77.861.9–93.7
2057	79.962.8–94.4
2058	79.263.7–94.9
2059	79.858–95.6
2060	78.261.1–95.1
2061	80.865.7–96.7
2062	8063.6–96.3
2063	8064.1–96.5
2064	77.661.4–95.2
2065	81.763–97.4
2066	80.363.8–94.2
2067	81.363.2–97.1
2068	79.861.4–99.3
2069	82.365–96.1
2070	83.360.2–102.3
2071	83.663.6–99.2
2072	84.363.3–99.1
2073	83.564.9–97.4
2074	84.366.8–100.9
2075	85.664.1–99.8
2076	83.968.8–99.3
2077	86.467.6–102.4
2078	84.167.7–103.2
2079	86.168.3–99.4
2080	84.767.6–103.7
2081	83.668.5–104.3
2082	86.469.4–107.7
2083	85.966.5–105.7
2084	85.867.4–102.3
2085	87.568.9–102.8
2086	84.668.6–105.3
2087	87.270.3–107
2088	86.866.3–102.5
2089	85.765.9–103.8
2090	89.469.5–104.4
2091	88.367.4–103.1
2092	8667.7–102.3
2093	88.969.8–107.4
2094	87.569.3–103.7
2095	8872.4–104.9
2096	90.771–107.3
2097	89.471–103.1
2098	88.571–106.5
2099	88.370.8–102.4
2100	87.769.2–106.2

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Tropical nights in Japan

What the numbers say

Every year

Good to know

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