Tropical nights in Lebanon

Tropical nights in Lebanon: 17.3 nights in 1950 and 27.7 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 27.7 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +10.4 nights
Projected, 2100: 72.1 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 72.1 nights in 2100, between 50.2 nights and 91.7 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 27.7 nights in 2014, the lowest 15.8 nights in 1965.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Lebanon
2014	27.7
2013	26.9
2012	27.1
2011	27.2
2010	26.7
2009	26.2
2008	26.7
2007	24.3
2006	25.6
2005	24.9
2004	24.2
2003	25.6
2002	24
2001	24.5
2000	23.6
1999	24
1998	22.7
1997	22.5
1996	21.1
1995	20.3
1994	21.1
1993	18
1992	18.3
1991	20.2
1990	21.9
1989	19.9
1988	19.9
1987	19.5
1986	20.3
1985	18.6
1984	17.9
1983	18.1
1982	18.6
1981	18.4
1980	19.6
1979	17.2
1978	17.7
1977	18.1
1976	18.3
1975	18.2
1974	17.9
1973	18.6
1972	18.5
1971	18.5
1970	17.9
1969	18.9
1968	17.5
1967	17.7
1966	17.7
1965	15.8
1964	17.2
1963	18.7
1962	18.4
1961	17.5
1960	19.7
1959	19
1958	19.5
1957	19.6
1956	19.2
1955	19.2
1954	18
1953	19.7
1952	18.8
1951	19.6
1950	17.3

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Lebanon
2015	32.224.6–42.8
2016	30.722.6–42.3
2017	33.925.9–44.2
2018	33.726.3–44
2019	34.124.7–43.7
2020	35.624.5–46.5
2021	35.627.3–44.9
2022	36.525.5–47.2
2023	37.827.7–47.8
2024	39.128.2–52.2
2025	38.527.1–51.2
2026	38.528–49.6
2027	39.328.2–50.7
2028	39.428.9–49
2029	40.231–52.4
2030	40.230.8–52.6
2031	39.531.1–52
2032	42.833.7–54.1
2033	42.132.4–54.4
2034	42.130.8–54.3
2035	43.932.5–56.8
2036	4333.8–55.7
2037	46.833.8–57.5
2038	44.833.9–58.8
2039	4536.3–58.6
2040	46.233.9–59.5
2041	47.336–58.9
2042	46.133.4–61.5
2043	47.937.5–60.5
2044	4835.3–63
2045	50.738.8–62.2
2046	49.538.6–62.7
2047	50.736.4–66.4
2048	50.937.8–66.7
2049	48.334.9–63.1
2050	49.939.3–66.7
2051	51.240.7–65.5
2052	51.940.8–65.1
2053	52.840–67.4
2054	53.342.2–68.1
2055	53.540.1–69.5
2056	53.337.5–71.6
2057	52.638.8–69.2
2058	55.540–72.5
2059	57.840–73.2
2060	54.442.7–72.8
2061	57.240.5–71.5
2062	56.939.7–73.2
2063	58.839.4–74.6
2064	59.642.9–75.7
2065	59.941.7–75.6
2066	5739.6–76
2067	60.443.8–79.2
2068	61.747.9–78.3
2069	59.245.3–72.5
2070	62.745.6–78
2071	63.744.9–77.7
2072	65.748.4–81.4
2073	64.546.3–80.6
2074	60.445.2–78.3
2075	62.647.5–76.1
2076	65.546–80.7
2077	62.446.2–81.7
2078	6651.1–79.1
2079	70.449.3–87.2
2080	67.549.8–84.3
2081	6451.1–85.1
2082	68.249.2–84.8
2083	67.650.2–86.8
2084	69.150.1–84.7
2085	65.753.3–86
2086	69.150.1–87
2087	66.352.2–89.5
2088	68.253.9–91.3
2089	68.252.2–88.5
2090	7255.6–88.5
2091	70.553.8–89.8
2092	71.149.9–90.5
2093	73.854–98.5
2094	72.954.1–92
2095	72.854.3–92.2
2096	71.651.6–93.1
2097	7353.6–89.6
2098	74.751.9–92.7
2099	72.148.3–88.6
2100	72.150.2–91.7

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Tropical nights in Lebanon

What the numbers say

Every year

Good to know

Lebanon in numbers

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