Tropical nights in Syria

Tropical nights in Syria: 68.9 nights in 1950 and 89.6 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 89.6 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +20.7 nights
Projected, 2100: 133.8 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 133.8 nights in 2100, between 113.2 nights and 152.2 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 91.2 nights in 2012, the lowest 64.3 nights in 1965.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Syria
2014	89.6
2013	90.8
2012	91.2
2011	89.6
2010	88.1
2009	86.2
2008	87.9
2007	85
2006	87.3
2005	85.3
2004	86.7
2003	86.7
2002	84.3
2001	85.9
2000	83.2
1999	82.1
1998	80.5
1997	80.5
1996	78.1
1995	75.8
1994	76.7
1993	71.5
1992	71.3
1991	75.5
1990	79.3
1989	75.7
1988	76.2
1987	73
1986	76
1985	72.6
1984	69.6
1983	67.9
1982	72
1981	72
1980	75
1979	67.7
1978	70.2
1977	70.1
1976	73.4
1975	69
1974	70
1973	70.7
1972	70.1
1971	70.7
1970	70.9
1969	71.3
1968	68.7
1967	68.8
1966	68.8
1965	64.3
1964	66.4
1963	69.1
1962	71.5
1961	70.8
1960	71.7
1959	72.7
1958	72.8
1957	72.6
1956	72.2
1955	70.3
1954	68.9
1953	72.2
1952	70.8
1951	72.4
1950	68.9

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Syria
2015	96.981.9–110.9
2016	93.581.2–108.2
2017	9782.1–109.5
2018	97.785.9–111
2019	98.983.7–111.2
2020	98.683.7–112.6
2021	10087.1–110.7
2022	101.684.9–113.2
2023	101.988.3–115.3
2024	102.790.7–113.8
2025	102.988.6–114.2
2026	103.389.5–116.1
2027	103.886.7–116.5
2028	103.589.2–116.4
2029	105.694–116.3
2030	105.991.3–119.2
2031	105.190.7–116
2032	107.893.2–119.4
2033	108.796.6–119.1
2034	107.593.9–119
2035	108.596.3–118.3
2036	105.793.2–118.7
2037	109.294.8–121.9
2038	111.897.8–125.5
2039	112.398.9–128
2040	111.898.5–127.5
2041	110.799.1–124.5
2042	112.996.4–126.5
2043	113.199.7–127.3
2044	112.599.8–128.8
2045	118.4105.5–131.3
2046	117.2104.7–129
2047	114.9100.6–129.1
2048	114.3101.2–130.8
2049	11499.3–128.9
2050	116.8104.6–132.7
2051	117.7105.5–129
2052	116.2103.9–128.2
2053	119.1105.2–131.3
2054	119.7102.7–135.5
2055	120.8104.3–134.2
2056	119.799.9–132.9
2057	120.6102.3–137.1
2058	120.1103.1–136.5
2059	123.5107.4–137.2
2060	119.6106.4–140.3
2061	122.8103.9–136.1
2062	121.8104.3–136.5
2063	122.1106.2–136.7
2064	124.3108.4–136.6
2065	123.7108.9–138.7
2066	122.1104.4–136.2
2067	126111.1–142.7
2068	126.8112.1–140.3
2069	123107.9–137.3
2070	126.5110.3–139.4
2071	126109.5–142.8
2072	128111.8–141.9
2073	127.6108–143.7
2074	124.2107–139.7
2075	124.7109.2–140.6
2076	126.6109.8–140.8
2077	127.5109–143.3
2078	127.2113.3–141.8
2079	132.9116–146.9
2080	129111.8–144.3
2081	127.6112.5–145.6
2082	129.1111.3–143.8
2083	133.2110.3–144.1
2084	132.2111–145.1
2085	130.9112.7–143.3
2086	130.9112.6–146.5
2087	129.6109.8–148.7
2088	132.5116.9–146.5
2089	130.4115.3–148.4
2090	128.9115–145.8
2091	133.4116–150.3
2092	131.6115.3–149
2093	135119.8–151
2094	134118–148.5
2095	134.3117.3–148.9
2096	131.5113.7–148.7
2097	136.2112.7–154.1
2098	131.5115.2–152.2
2099	132.8116–145.1
2100	133.8113.2–152.2

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Tropical nights in Syria

What the numbers say

Every year

Good to know

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