Tropical nights in Ukraine

Tropical nights in Ukraine: 2.1 nights in 1950 and 8.2 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 8.2 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +6.1 nights
Projected, 2100: 28.6 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 28.6 nights in 2100, between 14.8 nights and 45.7 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 8.2 nights in 2014, the lowest 1.3 nights in 1992.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Ukraine
2014	8.2
2013	6.6
2012	6
2011	6.5
2010	7.1
2009	6.3
2008	5.9
2007	5.7
2006	6.3
2005	6.6
2004	5
2003	5.9
2002	5
2001	4.5
2000	5.2
1999	3.8
1998	3.6
1997	3.6
1996	3.7
1995	3.2
1994	2.8
1993	2.5
1992	1.3
1991	2.5
1990	2.3
1989	2.5
1988	1.6
1987	2.5
1986	3.5
1985	2.7
1984	2.2
1983	1.3
1982	2.1
1981	1.8
1980	1.8
1979	2
1978	2
1977	1.4
1976	2
1975	1.6
1974	2.3
1973	1.7
1972	1.4
1971	2.3
1970	1.7
1969	2
1968	2.5
1967	1.7
1966	1.8
1965	2
1964	1.6
1963	2.1
1962	1.8
1961	2.1
1960	2.3
1959	2.7
1958	2.4
1957	2.2
1956	2.4
1955	2.3
1954	2.1
1953	2.7
1952	2.3
1951	2.2
1950	2.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Ukraine
2015	7.82.8–18.1
2016	9.72.5–19.2
2017	7.93–18.7
2018	10.33.7–18.6
2019	9.33.1–17.1
2020	10.94.2–20.2
2021	93–19.1
2022	10.63.4–21.5
2023	11.93.2–23.6
2024	113.9–18.9
2025	11.83.5–26.6
2026	10.73.8–20.7
2027	10.72.8–19.5
2028	10.73.6–20.6
2029	13.56.1–23.8
2030	9.73–19.2
2031	12.65.8–23.9
2032	14.44.8–27.8
2033	12.86.4–26.2
2034	124.8–25.8
2035	12.15.5–25.7
2036	15.18–27.7
2037	15.85.4–25
2038	16.26.6–29.6
2039	17.27.2–33.2
2040	15.76.7–26.2
2041	16.76.8–31.7
2042	15.36.1–28.4
2043	17.39–32.4
2044	18.17.1–34
2045	17.15.6–33.9
2046	19.26–35.1
2047	18.38–34.3
2048	22.26.1–36.6
2049	19.56.6–34.9
2050	20.27.6–36.7
2051	18.68.7–33.3
2052	17.47.8–31.1
2053	17.59.3–27.7
2054	19.67.5–29.4
2055	18.96.7–35.8
2056	18.19–33.5
2057	23.39.4–38.3
2058	229–44.5
2059	20.38.2–36.8
2060	18.68.6–33.8
2061	249.1–41.5
2062	22.49.9–39.1
2063	24.89.7–39.5
2064	22.18.5–38
2065	24.59.9–38.5
2066	22.37.9–40.7
2067	20.99.6–36.2
2068	20.88.1–40
2069	25.112.1–46.5
2070	22.87.2–41.8
2071	21.97.3–41.9
2072	27.913.8–44
2073	23.79.2–40.8
2074	2311.7–40.5
2075	24.59.4–44.1
2076	28.510.2–45.9
2077	24.310.6–42
2078	26.513.7–44.8
2079	29.910.5–53.2
2080	28.314.7–44
2081	27.615.7–45.4
2082	2912.7–52.7
2083	28.311.8–46.5
2084	31.614.5–45.4
2085	28.98.5–45.4
2086	27.714.3–51.7
2087	2814.8–50.6
2088	29.313.7–51
2089	25.211.3–46.5
2090	2913.9–50.7
2091	33.210.4–50.4
2092	3212.8–49.5
2093	30.911.2–54.7
2094	31.316.2–51.5
2095	3113.3–49
2096	29.614–50.4
2097	31.311.4–53.5
2098	31.713.7–49
2099	28.111.9–46.7
2100	28.614.8–45.7

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Tropical nights in Ukraine

What the numbers say

Every year

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