菲律宾与南非：热带夜

2014 年热带夜：菲律宾为 331.5 夜，南非为 27.1 夜（CMIP6 气候模型中位数模拟）。 2014 年菲律宾的数值较高，高出 304.4 夜，是南非的 12 倍。

每年夜数 · CMIP6

菲律宾南非CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径）模型第 10–90 百分位

数据解读

自 1950 年以来，在两国都有数据的每一年，菲律宾的数值都更高。
根据CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），2100 年菲律宾为 351.3 夜，南非为 58.7 夜。

逐年数据

每年夜数 · CMIP6

年份	菲律宾	南非
2014	331.5	27.1
2013	330.9	28.3
2012	331.1	27.9
2011	329.8	26.1
2010	330.6	26
2009	329	25.8
2008	327.5	24.8
2007	327.8	24.7
2006	328.7	25.5
2005	329.7	25.3
2004	329.4	25.8
2003	327.1	25.1
2002	328.9	25
2001	327.8	24.5
2000	326.8	23.3
1999	327.5	23
1998	326.5	23.4
1997	325.4	22.5
1996	324.6	20.4
1995	324.2	19.3
1994	321.5	20
1993	319.5	18.1
1992	318.4	18.1
1991	324.1	22.3
1990	323.5	22.7
1989	322.5	22
1988	324	21.2
1987	323.1	21.9
1986	322.1	21
1985	321.4	18.9
1984	321.7	20
1983	319.4	19
1982	320.5	20.3
1981	320.4	20
1980	322.7	21.2
1979	321.2	19.9
1978	320.6	19.8
1977	319.8	19.2
1976	319.6	19.2
1975	319.6	18.8
1974	320	19.7
1973	319.4	19.6
1972	318.9	19
1971	318.8	19.1
1970	319	18.6
1969	318.7	18.7
1968	317.2	17.8
1967	317.4	17.5
1966	318.8	17.8
1965	317.2	17.2
1964	314.9	14.9
1963	317.2	16.5
1962	318.6	19.6
1961	319.3	19.7
1960	318.6	19.8
1959	320.5	18.5
1958	321.8	19.3
1957	319.4	19.4
1956	320	18
1955	319.3	19.5
1954	317.7	18.4
1953	320	18.4
1952	319	19.3
1951	319.8	18.9
1950	320.4	18.1

CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径） · 2015–2100

年份	菲律宾	南非
2015	333319.8–339.5	28.620–39.5
2016	334.2322.8–340.7	26.817.8–37.9
2017	333.4319.7–339.8	28.919.6–37.8
2018	333.2320.1–340.1	29.620.6–40.6
2019	334.1323.4–341.2	29.820.8–41.5
2020	334.6322.6–341.8	29.518.9–39.1
2021	335.6323.3–341.1	31.121.4–42.9
2022	335.7323.3–342.1	3223.7–43.1
2023	336.7324.8–343.2	31.922.9–41.8
2024	337.2325.7–343.9	3324–45.6
2025	336.3326.2–342.8	31.920.7–44.5
2026	336.5322.9–343	34.521.9–46.9
2027	336.2325.7–342.3	34.423–47.7
2028	337.1325.5–343.8	33.522.9–46
2029	338.1327.2–344.6	36.226.5–48.3
2030	337.7326.2–344.4	36.124.9–49
2031	337.1325.6–343.8	36.324.5–50.3
2032	339.4329.5–346.1	36.424.5–49.2
2033	339.7329.6–345.5	36.924.5–48.3
2034	338.8328.8–345	37.626.4–51.8
2035	338.6327.5–346.4	37.625.2–49.5
2036	339.6327.8–346.9	3826.5–50.5
2037	339.8329.1–345.5	39.928.2–53.4
2038	341.9330.7–347.7	41.528.4–54.2
2039	341.2330.4–346.9	39.227–52.9
2040	340.4328.1–347.6	38.125.6–55.6
2041	341.1329.1–346.7	40.227.4–54.3
2042	342331.4–347.7	4229–56.4
2043	341.3329–348.1	42.128.2–58.4
2044	342.8329.9–349.8	41.929.5–57.8
2045	343.4333.8–348.7	42.728.2–59
2046	342.7330.2–348.7	44.130–59.5
2047	343.2331.7–350.6	44.630.7–61.2
2048	343.3332.7–350.6	4531.9–61.5
2049	343.2332.5–349.5	45.632.3–61.4
2050	344.3332.6–349.9	46.931–63.6
2051	344.4334.9–350.8	47.532–65
2052	344.1333.5–350.9	48.332.7–64.3
2053	344.3333.6–350.3	45.733.7–62.1
2054	343.4332–349.9	4833.3–64.3
2055	344.3334.4–350.5	46.833–68.4
2056	345334.6–352.6	47.933.2–64.8
2057	345.5335.1–351.5	50.232.6–68.9
2058	345.8334.3–351.3	47.934–66.4
2059	345.5333.7–351.6	51.333.1–66.9
2060	346.8335.5–353.5	51.936–69.9
2061	345.9335–351.8	50.534.8–71.3
2062	346335.2–353.5	50.532.7–71
2063	346.6336.2–352.8	50.434.3–69.7
2064	346.9335.3–353	5134.1–67.7
2065	346.1335.9–351.9	50.433.6–70.2
2066	346.5335.4–352.4	5335.7–72.4
2067	346.1335.4–352	50.634.8–70.4
2068	347.1335.1–354.1	54.837.8–72.5
2069	347333.8–353.6	54.339.1–73.4
2070	346.7336.1–352.7	54.337.2–73.3
2071	347.6336.2–353.9	55.837.9–76.9
2072	347334.4–353.8	5639.4–78.6
2073	348.4336.7–355	60.443.4–80.3
2074	348.6337–354.9	57.439.1–75.3
2075	347.9337.2–354	56.137.7–76
2076	348.4337–355.1	58.538.4–75.3
2077	348.7337–354.8	57.341–80.5
2078	348.4338.2–354.7	5639.5–79
2079	348.8337.6–354.7	57.639.3–78
2080	349.1338.4–355.9	59.540.3–80.9
2081	348.8336.9–355.1	5841.5–79.6
2082	349.6338–354.9	58.839.7–77.7
2083	349.9337.9–356.1	60.839.1–82.9
2084	349.5336.7–356.4	62.540.4–82.9
2085	349.1338.2–355.4	60.741.3–87.6
2086	349.4337.5–354.9	60.542.1–83.3
2087	349.7338.7–356	57.941–82.9
2088	349.9338.9–356.1	64.243.4–85.3
2089	350.2339.8–355.2	61.541.3–81.2
2090	350.1339.7–355.9	61.641.5–86.8
2091	349.5339.5–356.3	63.341.6–86.3
2092	350.5339.3–356.1	63.144.9–84.8
2093	350.4337.9–356.5	62.443.2–86.1
2094	350.5338.4–355.9	63.145.6–87.4
2095	350.5338.3–355.7	65.342.6–91.7
2096	351.1339–358	6142.7–90.1
2097	350.2339.3–355.6	58.841.2–84.6
2098	350.3337.4–355.2	65.143.8–89.8
2099	350.6339.3–356.4	64.345–87
2100	351.3340.2–356.3	58.742–88.2

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须知

一年中气温始终高于 20 °C 的夜晚数，取全国平均。
来源：World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median。
虚线为CMIP6 模型中位数（SSP2-4.5，中间路径），是一种情景而非预报；阴影带为其模型第 10–90 百分位。
气候模型值为 CMIP6 各模型的中位数：2014 年及以前按历史排放模拟，此后按中间路径 SSP2-4.5 模拟；它们并非实测数据。

各图层如何运作、数据从何而来，以及它们无法告诉你什么：历年各国数据

菲律宾与南非对比

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冲突

冲突死亡人数菲律宾：2022 年为 194 人死亡南非：2022 年为 0 人死亡