Days above 35 °C in France

Days above 35 °C in France: 0 days in 1950 and 0.3 days in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 0.3 days; Modelled
Since 1950: +0.3 days
Projected, 2100: 4.1 days; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

days a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 4.1 days in 2100, between 0.5 days and 11.2 days (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 0.3 days in 2010, the lowest 0 days in 1952.

Every year

days a year · CMIP6

Year	France
2014	0.3
2013	0
2012	0.1
2011	0.1
2010	0.3
2009	0.1
2008	0.3
2007	0
2006	0.2
2005	0.2
2004	0.1
2003	0.1
2002	0
2001	0.1
2000	0
1999	0
1998	0
1997	0
1996	0
1995	0
1994	0
1993	0
1992	0
1991	0
1990	0
1989	0
1988	0
1987	0
1986	0
1985	0
1984	0
1983	0
1982	0
1981	0
1980	0
1979	0
1978	0
1977	0
1976	0
1975	0
1974	0
1973	0
1972	0
1971	0
1970	0
1969	0
1968	0
1967	0
1966	0
1965	0
1964	0
1963	0
1962	0
1961	0
1960	0
1959	0
1958	0
1957	0
1956	0
1955	0
1954	0
1953	0
1952	0
1951	0
1950	0

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	France
2015	0.10–1.6
2016	0.30–1.8
2017	0.10–2.1
2018	0.20–2.3
2019	0.20–2
2020	0.30–2.5
2021	0.20–2.2
2022	0.30–2.7
2023	0.30–2.7
2024	0.30–1.7
2025	0.30–2.6
2026	0.50–2.9
2027	0.30–2.5
2028	0.50–3
2029	0.40–2.7
2030	0.50–2.4
2031	0.40–1.9
2032	0.40–3.4
2033	0.60–3.9
2034	0.80–6.2
2035	0.60–3.2
2036	0.60–4
2037	0.70–3.6
2038	0.80–4
2039	0.70–3
2040	0.70–3.5
2041	1.10–5.1
2042	0.70–4
2043	0.50–3.7
2044	0.60.1–4.2
2045	0.80.1–4.3
2046	1.20–4.4
2047	1.40.1–5.1
2048	0.70–4.5
2049	1.30.1–5.8
2050	20.2–5.8
2051	10.1–5.6
2052	1.30.1–5.4
2053	1.40.1–5.7
2054	1.50.1–5.9
2055	1.30.1–3.7
2056	1.50.2–6.2
2057	1.50.2–4.8
2058	2.10.1–8.3
2059	1.80.1–6.9
2060	2.20.2–6.9
2061	2.20.1–8.2
2062	20.2–6
2063	2.30.2–7.6
2064	20.2–8.6
2065	1.80.1–10.8
2066	20.1–5.8
2067	3.60.4–12
2068	2.30.1–8.2
2069	2.90.5–8.4
2070	2.90.2–13.7
2071	3.10.1–9.8
2072	3.10.6–9.6
2073	2.40.2–8.9
2074	1.90.1–7.2
2075	2.60.3–8
2076	3.10.3–10.4
2077	2.40.3–10.4
2078	2.10.3–10.7
2079	1.80.1–7.5
2080	2.80.4–10.2
2081	3.30.2–10
2082	3.40.4–11.1
2083	2.90.4–9.4
2084	2.30.4–9.7
2085	3.50.5–9.6
2086	3.50.3–11.8
2087	3.50.5–12.9
2088	4.50.7–18.7
2089	3.50.7–9.5
2090	3.50.5–11.9
2091	4.70.3–11.3
2092	2.60.3–9.2
2093	2.30.4–7.5
2094	4.30.6–11.5
2095	3.60.2–13.1
2096	3.50.4–11.8
2097	30.4–12.7
2098	3.20.4–9.9
2099	3.90.5–12.1
2100	4.10.5–11.2

Good to know

Days in a year whose highest temperature passes 35 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

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