Tropical nights in Poland

Tropical nights in Poland: 0 nights in 1950 and 0.4 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 0.4 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +0.4 nights
Projected, 2100: 7.9 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 7.9 nights in 2100, between 1.2 nights and 18.1 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 0.4 nights in 2010, the lowest 0 nights in 1950.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Poland
2014	0.4
2013	0.2
2012	0.2
2011	0.2
2010	0.4
2009	0.2
2008	0.1
2007	0.1
2006	0.2
2005	0.2
2004	0.4
2003	0.1
2002	0
2001	0.2
2000	0.1
1999	0.1
1998	0
1997	0
1996	0.1
1995	0.1
1994	0
1993	0
1992	0
1991	0
1990	0
1989	0
1988	0
1987	0
1986	0
1985	0
1984	0
1983	0
1982	0
1981	0
1980	0
1979	0
1978	0.1
1977	0
1976	0
1975	0
1974	0
1973	0
1972	0
1971	0
1970	0
1969	0
1968	0
1967	0
1966	0
1965	0
1964	0
1963	0
1962	0
1961	0
1960	0
1959	0
1958	0
1957	0
1956	0
1955	0
1954	0
1953	0
1952	0
1951	0
1950	0

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Poland
2015	0.40–3.3
2016	0.60–4.2
2017	0.70–3.4
2018	0.40–3.8
2019	0.60–3.5
2020	0.90–4.5
2021	0.60–4.4
2022	10–5.4
2023	0.80–5.2
2024	0.90–4.7
2025	1.20–8.4
2026	1.20–6.2
2027	1.10–4.1
2028	1.20–5
2029	1.40–7.7
2030	10–5.9
2031	0.70–4.8
2032	1.20–8.4
2033	1.40–6
2034	1.70–6.8
2035	1.40–6.7
2036	2.40–8.9
2037	20–8.4
2038	1.40–8.4
2039	3.30–9.4
2040	2.20–6.7
2041	2.10.1–7.6
2042	2.40.1–8.6
2043	2.70–9.9
2044	3.30.1–10.7
2045	2.40–7.8
2046	2.80.2–11.4
2047	4.30.2–11.6
2048	4.20.1–13.2
2049	4.40–11
2050	2.70.1–11.2
2051	2.10–11.6
2052	30.3–10.9
2053	2.70–8.2
2054	2.70.2–8.7
2055	2.40.1–12.2
2056	3.50.2–11.8
2057	3.20.3–13.1
2058	4.40.3–13.8
2059	3.40.2–15.2
2060	3.90.2–10.8
2061	5.40.6–12.4
2062	3.30.4–14.5
2063	4.90.3–15.7
2064	4.60.4–12.5
2065	5.30.4–16.1
2066	5.60.7–14
2067	4.10.2–13.6
2068	3.80.2–13.6
2069	5.50.5–16.8
2070	4.50.2–17.2
2071	3.80.3–16
2072	51.1–12.6
2073	5.31.3–17.1
2074	4.50.8–17.1
2075	6.20.4–18.6
2076	50.5–19.1
2077	4.60.3–18.1
2078	6.81–18.1
2079	6.80.5–25.3
2080	6.31.5–15.6
2081	5.51–20.5
2082	7.70.8–26.5
2083	60.4–17.4
2084	6.20.5–16.8
2085	6.40.7–19.1
2086	7.70.6–24.6
2087	7.60.7–25.8
2088	7.11.6–20.5
2089	7.20.5–21.9
2090	5.40.5–25.2
2091	10.30.6–23.7
2092	9.21.5–20
2093	6.20.6–20.8
2094	9.20.8–18.4
2095	91.3–20.5
2096	6.80.9–17.5
2097	6.40.3–19.6
2098	8.41.8–20.1
2099	6.10.8–17.6
2100	7.91.2–18.1

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

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