Tropical nights in San Marino

Tropical nights in San Marino: 24 nights in 1950 and 48 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 48 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +24 nights
Projected, 2100: 97 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 97 nights in 2100, between 74 nights and 116 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 52 nights in 2010, the lowest 17 nights in 1979.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	San Marino
2014	48
2013	43
2012	46
2011	49
2010	52
2009	43
2008	44
2007	40
2006	47
2005	41
2004	46
2003	45
2002	39
2001	36
2000	41
1999	35
1998	31
1997	35
1996	30
1995	30
1994	30
1993	30
1992	24
1991	29
1990	32
1989	27
1988	26
1987	29
1986	25
1985	21
1984	28
1983	24
1982	22
1981	26
1980	27
1979	17
1978	30
1977	19
1976	23
1975	19
1974	25
1973	22
1972	21
1971	27
1970	22
1969	24
1968	21
1967	19
1966	21
1965	18
1964	25
1963	18
1962	22
1961	18
1960	23
1959	30
1958	21
1957	27
1956	27
1955	31
1954	28
1953	25
1952	31
1951	29
1950	24

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	San Marino
2015	5842–74
2016	5535–76
2017	6040–74
2018	5644–73
2019	5633–72
2020	5932–73
2021	6130–81
2022	7039–85
2023	6135–76
2024	6539–78
2025	7224–87
2026	6655–88
2027	6140–90
2028	6751–86
2029	7141–88
2030	7252–89
2031	6640–91
2032	7052–92
2033	7044–79
2034	7452–88
2035	7453–97
2036	6951–101
2037	7748–87
2038	6953–95
2039	6856–90
2040	7554–97
2041	7250–92
2042	7253–93
2043	8151–101
2044	7551–92
2045	7358–88
2046	7543–99
2047	8053–95
2048	7653–104
2049	7948–104
2050	8361–99
2051	8051–111
2052	8361–104
2053	8465–106
2054	8561–98
2055	9158–109
2056	8167–105
2057	8362–100
2058	8566–112
2059	8762–107
2060	8966–102
2061	8767–114
2062	9061–101
2063	8966–106
2064	9472–107
2065	8668–108
2066	8866–105
2067	9176–111
2068	8772–105
2069	9272–113
2070	8565–115
2071	9460–112
2072	9673–110
2073	9061–104
2074	8763–112
2075	9071–107
2076	9174–111
2077	8669–111
2078	9571–114
2079	9164–119
2080	9070–110
2081	9178–112
2082	9676–113
2083	9178–116
2084	9582–119
2085	10075–117
2086	9779–114
2087	9277–115
2088	10280–123
2089	9779–116
2090	10079–116
2091	9781–118
2092	10176–120
2093	10371–123
2094	9379–118
2095	9774–118
2096	9978–120
2097	9775–115
2098	9877–115
2099	9976–121
2100	9774–116

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

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