Temperature in Tajikistan

Temperature in Tajikistan: -0.9 °C in 1950 and 2.9 °C in 2025, by ERA5 observations.

°C · ERA5

Observed, ERA5CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 3.2 °C in 2100, between 2.1 °C and 4.6 °C (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 2.9 °C in 2025, the lowest -1.9 °C in 1972.

°C · ERA5

Year	Observed, ERA5	CMIP6 historical run, model median
2025	2.9	1.2
2024	1.3	1.1
2023	1.6	0.8
2022	1.7	0.8
2021	1	0.8
2020	0.3	0.9
2019	1	0.6
2018	0.8	0.6
2017	1.1	0.8
2016	1.6	0.6
2015	0.8	0.5
2014	0	0.5
2013	0.9	0.5
2012	-0.7	0.4
2011	0.5	0.4
2010	0.5	0.1
2009	-0.2	0.1
2008	0.4	-0
2007	0.8	0.2
2006	0.9	0.2
2005	-0.3	0
2004	0.3	0.1
2003	-0.2	0.1
2002	0.4	0.3
2001	0.5	-0.1
2000	-0.3	-0.2
1999	-0.3	-0
1998	0.5	-0.2
1997	0.2	-0.3
1996	-1	-0.1
1995	-0.5	-0.3
1994	-0.2	-0.5
1993	-0.6	-0.7
1992	-0.3	-0.8
1991	-0.4	-0.3
1990	0.7	-0.4
1989	-1.5	-0.4
1988	0.2	-0.6
1987	-0.3	-0.4
1986	-0.5	-0.7
1985	0	-0.5
1984	-0.3	-0.9
1983	0	-1.1
1982	-0.9	-0.7
1981	-0	-0.5
1980	0.5	-0.6
1979	0.3	-0.7
1978	0.2	-0.7
1977	0.4	-0.9
1976	-0.4	-1
1975	-1.1	-0.8
1974	-1.3	-0.8
1973	-0.2	-1
1972	-1.9	-0.9
1971	0.1	-1
1970	-0.1	-1
1969	-1	-1
1968	-0.6	-1.2
1967	-1.1	-0.9
1966	-0.5	-1
1965	-0.8	-1
1964	-1.6	-1
1963	0.2	-1
1962	-0.9	-0.7
1961	-0.4	-0.8
1960	-0.9	-0.7
1959	-0.4	-0.7
1958	-0.7	-1
1957	-1.7	-0.6
1956	-0.1	-0.9
1955	-0.4	-0.7
1954	-1.1	-0.7
1953	-0.3	-1
1952	-0.2	-0.9
1951	-0.4	-0.7
1950	-0.9	-0.6

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2026–2100

Year	Observed, ERA5	CMIP6 historical run, model median
2026	–	0.9-0–2.3
2027	–	1.10.3–1.9
2028	–	1.10.3–2.1
2029	–	1.20.2–2
2030	–	1.10.1–2
2031	–	1.20.5–2
2032	–	1.30.2–2.1
2033	–	1.10.5–2.2
2034	–	1.30.2–2.3
2035	–	1.30.3–2.3
2036	–	1.30.6–2.1
2037	–	1.80.6–2.6
2038	–	1.50.6–2.4
2039	–	1.40.5–2.4
2040	–	1.60.7–2.7
2041	–	1.50.7–2.7
2042	–	1.50.4–2.7
2043	–	1.40.4–2.6
2044	–	1.81–2.7
2045	–	1.70.8–2.7
2046	–	2.11.1–2.9
2047	–	1.90.8–2.8
2048	–	1.71–2.9
2049	–	1.91–2.9
2050	–	2.11.1–3.2
2051	–	1.90.8–3
2052	–	20.7–3.1
2053	–	21.1–3
2054	–	20.9–3.4
2055	–	2.21.1–3.4
2056	–	2.21.4–3.2
2057	–	2.21.1–3.5
2058	–	2.11.2–3.1
2059	–	2.41.4–3.6
2060	–	21.1–3.7
2061	–	2.21.4–3.1
2062	–	2.51.2–3.7
2063	–	2.41.6–3.5
2064	–	2.31–3.7
2065	–	2.41.4–3.5
2066	–	2.41.6–4
2067	–	2.61.8–3.5
2068	–	2.71.6–3.9
2069	–	2.71.7–3.8
2070	–	2.61.6–3.5
2071	–	2.61.4–3.8
2072	–	2.41.3–4.2
2073	–	2.91.6–4.3
2074	–	2.91.8–4.5
2075	–	2.71.8–4.3
2076	–	2.41.2–4
2077	–	31.5–4.4
2078	–	2.81.5–4.3
2079	–	2.61.5–3.9
2080	–	2.71.7–4
2081	–	2.51.7–4.2
2082	–	2.91.9–3.9
2083	–	3.12.2–4.3
2084	–	3.11.9–4.1
2085	–	2.91.9–4.6
2086	–	2.71.3–4.4
2087	–	2.91.9–4.3
2088	–	2.81.7–4.5
2089	–	3.12.1–4.6
2090	–	3.21.9–4.4
2091	–	3.11.6–4.3
2092	–	3.12–4.5
2093	–	3.12.3–4.4
2094	–	3.22–4.8
2095	–	3.11.4–4.7
2096	–	3.21.9–4.6
2097	–	32.1–4.4
2098	–	3.52–4.8
2099	–	3.11.4–4.7
2100	–	3.22.1–4.6

The average air temperature near the ground, over the whole country and the whole year.
Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus, ECMWF) and CMIP6, via the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.
Ranks count the 233 countries with a value in 2025, highest first.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time