Tropical nights in Zambia

Tropical nights in Zambia: 36 nights in 1950 and 62.9 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 62.9 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +26.9 nights
Projected, 2100: 171.5 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 171.5 nights in 2100, between 124.3 nights and 228 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 64.7 nights in 2013, the lowest 30.5 nights in 1963.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Zambia
2014	62.9
2013	64.7
2012	63.9
2011	61.5
2010	59.3
2009	57.5
2008	56
2007	55.1
2006	55.9
2005	54.5
2004	58.4
2003	56.6
2002	55
2001	59
2000	52.9
1999	48
1998	51.3
1997	47.8
1996	43.5
1995	43.9
1994	41.6
1993	35.3
1992	36
1991	42.7
1990	46.4
1989	45
1988	43.6
1987	44
1986	43.8
1985	38.7
1984	38.7
1983	38.8
1982	40
1981	41.7
1980	39.7
1979	40.7
1978	38.9
1977	40
1976	35.7
1975	37.1
1974	37.4
1973	38.8
1972	35
1971	36
1970	38.1
1969	37.1
1968	34.1
1967	32.2
1966	33.1
1965	34.9
1964	31.3
1963	30.5
1962	38.8
1961	37
1960	39.3
1959	38.3
1958	39
1957	37.8
1956	34.6
1955	38.2
1954	38
1953	35.4
1952	37.6
1951	36.9
1950	36

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Zambia
2015	72.150.1–93.9
2016	66.845.9–85.7
2017	71.449.7–92.5
2018	73.852.7–94.8
2019	73.354–97.6
2020	77.556.9–100.4
2021	76.755.7–104.5
2022	84.861.6–109.7
2023	84.763–108
2024	85.158.2–113.9
2025	84.957.1–116
2026	83.658.4–119.4
2027	89.562.5–115.7
2028	89.965–118.6
2029	9669.8–122.8
2030	9166.7–118.1
2031	97.668.2–121.3
2032	94.970.3–122.2
2033	98.270.1–123.6
2034	97.370.4–135.2
2035	104.168.4–137.8
2036	99.568.7–131.5
2037	107.177.4–139.8
2038	110.383.2–138.8
2039	101.874.3–139.1
2040	100.872.5–145.3
2041	113.978.7–147.6
2042	111.379.1–155.1
2043	106.678.3–150.6
2044	110.574.3–145.5
2045	109.882.2–148.2
2046	119.485.9–160
2047	123.191.1–159.4
2048	124.590.6–160.2
2049	124.586.1–167.1
2050	130.592–166
2051	128.498.1–169.8
2052	130.798.6–170.4
2053	128.488–168.8
2054	132.193–169.6
2055	132.1100.1–176.1
2056	132.492.7–179.6
2057	133.298.5–178.5
2058	137.299.2–179.7
2059	139.8105.8–189.5
2060	145.4102.9–191
2061	136.692.8–196.9
2062	143.9101–194.7
2063	144.5101.7–187.8
2064	147.998.4–180.9
2065	148.6104.3–199.8
2066	152.1109.4–193.6
2067	140.6103.2–195.7
2068	150.8105.7–200.3
2069	150.5106.3–197
2070	145.8104.7–202.4
2071	153.1112.7–212
2072	157.2120–195.7
2073	161.5115.2–210.9
2074	149.2115–198.7
2075	148.2111.5–202.2
2076	150.4112–201.9
2077	156.5120.3–208.3
2078	157.2122.2–209.5
2079	156.8118.1–207.3
2080	159.8116–211.9
2081	160.2117.1–208.6
2082	159.6119.6–200.6
2083	159.5110.7–219.9
2084	166124.3–210.3
2085	172.9126.8–221.1
2086	161.9120.6–224.1
2087	158.3129.2–219.6
2088	168.4123.9–218.5
2089	168.5129.9–217.9
2090	165.7124–223.8
2091	177.4129.5–227.2
2092	170.6127.8–221.5
2093	173.6123.6–223.3
2094	171.4130.3–220.7
2095	179131.6–228.6
2096	170.8124.8–233.3
2097	167.2122.2–224.3
2098	172.5131.9–226.9
2099	171.7126.5–229.1
2100	171.5124.3–228

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Tropical nights in Zambia

What the numbers say

Every year

Good to know

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