Tropical nights in Zimbabwe

Tropical nights in Zimbabwe: 51.8 nights in 1950 and 76.4 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 76.4 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +24.6 nights
Projected, 2100: 148.3 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 148.3 nights in 2100, between 120.1 nights and 184.6 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 78.4 nights in 2013, the lowest 44.6 nights in 1964.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Zimbabwe
2014	76.4
2013	78.4
2012	75.9
2011	73.3
2010	71.5
2009	69.6
2008	69.8
2007	69.3
2006	70.3
2005	69.5
2004	71.8
2003	72.9
2002	71.3
2001	71.3
2000	67.4
1999	62.3
1998	66.3
1997	62
1996	57.7
1995	58.9
1994	56.8
1993	50.1
1992	52.1
1991	58.7
1990	61.5
1989	60.4
1988	61.6
1987	57.3
1986	58.6
1985	54.1
1984	54.6
1983	53.3
1982	53.7
1981	57
1980	57.3
1979	56.2
1978	53.1
1977	55.2
1976	51.2
1975	53.6
1974	54.2
1973	53.9
1972	53.2
1971	51.1
1970	53.1
1969	53.3
1968	48.7
1967	48.7
1966	48.8
1965	48.6
1964	44.6
1963	47.4
1962	55.8
1961	51.6
1960	55.6
1959	53.6
1958	55.3
1957	53.2
1956	48.6
1955	54.4
1954	53
1953	51.8
1952	52.7
1951	52.3
1950	51.8

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Zimbabwe
2015	79.463.5–98.5
2016	78.657.9–101.7
2017	81.263.3–98.5
2018	82.160.5–104.1
2019	82.863.9–102.3
2020	84.362.9–106.9
2021	82.564.7–102.7
2022	89.870.1–108.8
2023	90.672.5–110.7
2024	93.769.8–113.4
2025	8865.1–114.6
2026	89.767.8–113.9
2027	95.668.4–119.6
2028	93.371.4–115.7
2029	100.277.2–120
2030	9671.6–115.3
2031	9874.9–119.8
2032	98.574.7–118.5
2033	98.974–120.6
2034	100.277.3–128.1
2035	103.975.7–130.6
2036	100.878–123
2037	10882.1–131.1
2038	110.986.5–135
2039	102.480.4–122.3
2040	101.379.5–133.5
2041	108.483.7–134.2
2042	108.883.1–139.9
2043	107.985.7–137.3
2044	111.287–134.8
2045	106.186.2–130.7
2046	112.386.4–139.1
2047	119.692.1–145.9
2048	116.888.4–143.9
2049	119.290.4–146.2
2050	122.794.1–148.6
2051	122.4100.9–147.7
2052	124.2101.3–152.8
2053	121.689–146.9
2054	123.993.9–150.8
2055	126.597.9–153.7
2056	126.198–154.7
2057	122.797.6–150.7
2058	125.3103–154.1
2059	132.2107.4–157.4
2060	132.599.9–159
2061	126.694.2–161.1
2062	126.399.6–157.3
2063	127.7101–159.7
2064	130.498–151.3
2065	132.4107.6–165.6
2066	134.5106.8–159.8
2067	125.598.9–160.5
2068	134102.3–166.1
2069	136.9106.4–164.2
2070	133.199.8–166.3
2071	135.2108.4–173.7
2072	140.4110.6–166.8
2073	140.9109.7–173.6
2074	135.5112–170.6
2075	136108.5–166.6
2076	133.7105.9–163.7
2077	140.2114.3–170.6
2078	137.5111.3–172.3
2079	136.9110.2–172.6
2080	145115.8–173.2
2081	147.2106.5–174.1
2082	141.4111.4–169.9
2083	143.6106.5–179.2
2084	149.4117.3–176.9
2085	154.3114.9–182.7
2086	141.7115.3–176.1
2087	142.7116.8–177.3
2088	150.2118.3–178.9
2089	148.9121.3–176.4
2090	145.7113.7–179.4
2091	149.7116.5–181.8
2092	149.4119.7–181.7
2093	152.5117.1–184.1
2094	150.9117.3–182.2
2095	155118.3–181.5
2096	152.4113.1–189.2
2097	144.1113.8–183.3
2098	152.4119.2–187
2099	152.9117.3–185
2100	148.3120.1–184.6

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Tropical nights in Zimbabwe

What the numbers say

Every year

Good to know

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