Poland vs Ukraine: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 0.4 nights in Poland and 8.2 nights in Ukraine, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Ukraine, by 7.8 nights, or 20 times that in Poland.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

PolandUkraineCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Ukraine has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Poland at 7.9 nights and Ukraine at 28.6 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Poland	Ukraine
2014	0.4	8.2
2013	0.2	6.6
2012	0.2	6
2011	0.2	6.5
2010	0.4	7.1
2009	0.2	6.3
2008	0.1	5.9
2007	0.1	5.7
2006	0.2	6.3
2005	0.2	6.6
2004	0.4	5
2003	0.1	5.9
2002	0	5
2001	0.2	4.5
2000	0.1	5.2
1999	0.1	3.8
1998	0	3.6
1997	0	3.6
1996	0.1	3.7
1995	0.1	3.2
1994	0	2.8
1993	0	2.5
1992	0	1.3
1991	0	2.5
1990	0	2.3
1989	0	2.5
1988	0	1.6
1987	0	2.5
1986	0	3.5
1985	0	2.7
1984	0	2.2
1983	0	1.3
1982	0	2.1
1981	0	1.8
1980	0	1.8
1979	0	2
1978	0.1	2
1977	0	1.4
1976	0	2
1975	0	1.6
1974	0	2.3
1973	0	1.7
1972	0	1.4
1971	0	2.3
1970	0	1.7
1969	0	2
1968	0	2.5
1967	0	1.7
1966	0	1.8
1965	0	2
1964	0	1.6
1963	0	2.1
1962	0	1.8
1961	0	2.1
1960	0	2.3
1959	0	2.7
1958	0	2.4
1957	0	2.2
1956	0	2.4
1955	0	2.3
1954	0	2.1
1953	0	2.7
1952	0	2.3
1951	0	2.2
1950	0	2.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Poland	Ukraine
2015	0.40–3.3	7.82.8–18.1
2016	0.60–4.2	9.72.5–19.2
2017	0.70–3.4	7.93–18.7
2018	0.40–3.8	10.33.7–18.6
2019	0.60–3.5	9.33.1–17.1
2020	0.90–4.5	10.94.2–20.2
2021	0.60–4.4	93–19.1
2022	10–5.4	10.63.4–21.5
2023	0.80–5.2	11.93.2–23.6
2024	0.90–4.7	113.9–18.9
2025	1.20–8.4	11.83.5–26.6
2026	1.20–6.2	10.73.8–20.7
2027	1.10–4.1	10.72.8–19.5
2028	1.20–5	10.73.6–20.6
2029	1.40–7.7	13.56.1–23.8
2030	10–5.9	9.73–19.2
2031	0.70–4.8	12.65.8–23.9
2032	1.20–8.4	14.44.8–27.8
2033	1.40–6	12.86.4–26.2
2034	1.70–6.8	124.8–25.8
2035	1.40–6.7	12.15.5–25.7
2036	2.40–8.9	15.18–27.7
2037	20–8.4	15.85.4–25
2038	1.40–8.4	16.26.6–29.6
2039	3.30–9.4	17.27.2–33.2
2040	2.20–6.7	15.76.7–26.2
2041	2.10.1–7.6	16.76.8–31.7
2042	2.40.1–8.6	15.36.1–28.4
2043	2.70–9.9	17.39–32.4
2044	3.30.1–10.7	18.17.1–34
2045	2.40–7.8	17.15.6–33.9
2046	2.80.2–11.4	19.26–35.1
2047	4.30.2–11.6	18.38–34.3
2048	4.20.1–13.2	22.26.1–36.6
2049	4.40–11	19.56.6–34.9
2050	2.70.1–11.2	20.27.6–36.7
2051	2.10–11.6	18.68.7–33.3
2052	30.3–10.9	17.47.8–31.1
2053	2.70–8.2	17.59.3–27.7
2054	2.70.2–8.7	19.67.5–29.4
2055	2.40.1–12.2	18.96.7–35.8
2056	3.50.2–11.8	18.19–33.5
2057	3.20.3–13.1	23.39.4–38.3
2058	4.40.3–13.8	229–44.5
2059	3.40.2–15.2	20.38.2–36.8
2060	3.90.2–10.8	18.68.6–33.8
2061	5.40.6–12.4	249.1–41.5
2062	3.30.4–14.5	22.49.9–39.1
2063	4.90.3–15.7	24.89.7–39.5
2064	4.60.4–12.5	22.18.5–38
2065	5.30.4–16.1	24.59.9–38.5
2066	5.60.7–14	22.37.9–40.7
2067	4.10.2–13.6	20.99.6–36.2
2068	3.80.2–13.6	20.88.1–40
2069	5.50.5–16.8	25.112.1–46.5
2070	4.50.2–17.2	22.87.2–41.8
2071	3.80.3–16	21.97.3–41.9
2072	51.1–12.6	27.913.8–44
2073	5.31.3–17.1	23.79.2–40.8
2074	4.50.8–17.1	2311.7–40.5
2075	6.20.4–18.6	24.59.4–44.1
2076	50.5–19.1	28.510.2–45.9
2077	4.60.3–18.1	24.310.6–42
2078	6.81–18.1	26.513.7–44.8
2079	6.80.5–25.3	29.910.5–53.2
2080	6.31.5–15.6	28.314.7–44
2081	5.51–20.5	27.615.7–45.4
2082	7.70.8–26.5	2912.7–52.7
2083	60.4–17.4	28.311.8–46.5
2084	6.20.5–16.8	31.614.5–45.4
2085	6.40.7–19.1	28.98.5–45.4
2086	7.70.6–24.6	27.714.3–51.7
2087	7.60.7–25.8	2814.8–50.6
2088	7.11.6–20.5	29.313.7–51
2089	7.20.5–21.9	25.211.3–46.5
2090	5.40.5–25.2	2913.9–50.7
2091	10.30.6–23.7	33.210.4–50.4
2092	9.21.5–20	3212.8–49.5
2093	6.20.6–20.8	30.911.2–54.7
2094	9.20.8–18.4	31.316.2–51.5
2095	91.3–20.5	3113.3–49
2096	6.80.9–17.5	29.614–50.4
2097	6.40.3–19.6	31.311.4–53.5
2098	8.41.8–20.1	31.713.7–49
2099	6.10.8–17.6	28.111.9–46.7
2100	7.91.2–18.1	28.614.8–45.7

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Poland vs Ukraine: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

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